To clarify, as a die-hard Packers fan, this pains me to even recommend any talent on the Minnesota Vikings for the masses to acquire. That being said, fandom bias aside, my affinity for Adam Thielen shows that I truly believe Thielen holds high quality at a real value which at this moment in time is a must-have.
As of April 2020, Adam Thielen’s ADP in dynasty fantasy football leagues is sitting at 67 overall (WR33). Depending on your league format that is a late 5th or 6th round pick. This could potentially make a top 10 upside wideout the WR3 on your team, or give you a solid WR2 if you stocked up with multiple RBs in the first four rounds. Yet looking at the fantasy scene, you will probably see a lot of people writing Thielen off for the 2020 season. You will likely see a combination of statements saying “he’s too old” or “he’s coming off an injury” or “he will see more coverage due to Diggs departure”. I am here to tell you to take some of these statements with a grain of salt.
Recent Production and Injury Concerns
Let’s first take a look into the injury worries. By his 2019 numbers, it would look as though Thielen is on the decline. This conclusion may be present even looking at his average per game fantasy stats, but I wouldn’t take that at face value. Looking at Thielen’s average per game stats doesn’t do Theilen justice because there were multiple games, three to be exact, where Thielen hardly touched the field (due to his hamstring injury) yet those games still counted against his average for even seeing the field. To paint a more realistic picture I would take a deeper dive at Thielen’s first 6 games where he was fully healthy. In these first six games, Thielen saw 83% of snaps or greater while receiving 6+ targets in four of these six games. He also racked up 366 yards and 5 touchdowns within this timeframe. If you take the per game stats from these games where he actually played, projected across a full season, Thielen was on pace for 970 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 66 receptions. Those numbers would have made him a WR1 once again, placing him in the WR8-10 range, also making him a top 10 WR for 3 straight seasons. Once Adam Thielen sustained a hamstring injury in Week 7, he didn’t return to full health for the remainder of the regular season. In fact, Thielen only played in one game (week 16) where he played his typical number of snaps. Even in this game, he served a decoy role for a majority of the game. It wasn’t until the playoffs where Adam showed to be at full health but his performance there showed that the Vikings’ number one pass-catcher is still fantasy relevan as he posted 12 catches on 16 targets for 179 yards.
Yet all of this isn’t to say there is no worry with his injury. After speaking with our very own Edwin Porras (@FFStudentDoc), I learned that Thielen’s leg injury shouldn’t hamper his play by any means. With that being said, the major hamstring strain Thielen suffered does carry an increased risk of re-injury, so I do not want to write that off. I’m not recommending you go out there and make Thielen your WR1 or overpay by any means but evaluating the current spot he is falling to in startups or the low cost he is garnering in trades and saying buy at that price!
Granted he does remain in good health, I believe Thielen is set up to produce nicely in the 2020 season due to 3 main factors. Those three factors are:
- A likely increased target share opportunity;
- Past wide receiver success within new OC Gary Kubiak’s system; and
- Thielen’s ability to be efficient and find success making contested catches.
Increased Target Opportunity
It’s no secret that the Vikings are losing a massive weapon with Stefon Diggs being traded to the Buffalo Bills, but with that departure Minnesota frees up the 22% target share (94 total targets) that Diggs commanded in 2019. In fact, looking at the 2018 season where Kirk Cousins had a healthy Thielen and Diggs; Diggs finished with equal or greater targets than Thielen in 10 of the 15 games that they both saw the field. This trend continued in 2019 when the pair was healthy as well, up until the playoffs where Thielen took control. This also signals that with Diggs departure an increased target opportunity was still a possibility even if Thielen had played out the entire 2019 season at his normal target numbers.
Having spent 4 seasons together with Diggs as starters, there were bound to be games each missed due to injury. Taking a look into the splits where one of the pair was out, Diggs only missed 5 games, one of which was played with Kirk Cousins as the starting QB, so extrapolating those splits would be misleading. Lastly, even missing seven full games on the season Thielen finished with the third most targets (48 total targets), so a good chunk of those vacated by Diggs will likely be headed Thielen’s way who finished with 17.8% of the teams targets in 2019 (2018 Thielen held a 26% share). The rest will likely be divided between the likes of Olabisi Johnson, Irv Smith, Kyle Rudolph, and Tajae Sharpe (or an early rookie draft pick).
Success in the Kubiak System
Gary Kubiak has a proven track record of providing wide receiver success when play calling for a team’s offense. Although many will discuss his effectiveness toward the ground game, there is still a positive outlook for Thielen as well. During his stint of head coaching from 2006-2016 (with one season as an OC in there) Kubiak produced at least one top 12 wr or two top 24 wrs in nine of the eleven seasons:
Years with a top 12 WR: 7
Years with two top 24 fantasy WR: 4
The two seasons in which he did not produce either of these, his top option was injured for seven or more games. Further, during these years Kubiak’s offense has often been in the top 20 for pass attempts (outside of his first year as HC and 2011) and also was in the top 20 in receiving yards every year (outside of his first year as HC and 2016, when his team had a QB rotation of Siemian, Lynch, and Kelly).
Analyzing Kubiak’s team rankings in pass attempts, rush attempts, pass/rush yards, and pass/rush touchdowns throughout the years it is apparent he shifts the teams whole offensive approach based on the proven talent he has available but prefers a balanced attack if he has the weapons. To Thielen’s advantage, Kubiak has a proven track record with utilizing his personnel’s strengths so I am expecting to see a high usage of Dalvin Cook and Thielen, with a possibility of Alexander Mattison and Irv Smith stepping into larger roles.
Efficiency and Success in Contested Coverage
Last but certainly not least, Adam Thielen is a quarterback’s best friend. In 2018 Thielen posted a contested catch percentage of 55.6% which was 9th best in the NFL and his QBR when targeted was a 111.0 (22nd best in the league). How did he follow this up in 2019 prior to injury? He increased his contested catch percentage to 60.0% while posting the 4th best QBR when targeted of 130.0. Not only that but from a fantasy perspective Thielen posted the 6th best fantasy points/route and the 3rd best fantasy points per target. Thielen is sure-handed, dependable, and showed a great deal of promise this past season, prior to the injury, with a good possibility at landing as a WR1 for the third straight year. Now with good health, Kubiak’s system, and a large number of open targets for the taking I believe Thielen could be on his way to yet another low end WR1 finish in 2020, yet fantasy owners are treating him like he is damaged goods.
Wrapping it up, if you are making a run at that championship this upcoming season then Thielen is the perfect piece to consider buying at his current asking price. The fact that you can get this number one wideout for an early second round rookie pick is definitely a price worth paying for any contending team. On the startup front Thielen’s ADP as of the beginning of April is 67 overall and WR33. A sixth round grab and potentially your 3rd receiver that carries top 10 upside is an easy buy no matter his age, which he is just heading into his age 30 year. I would say this medium-risk high-reward option is staring you right in the face, and is a great way to win a league in 2020.
