The Panthers started their offseason with a plethora of QB changes, signaling the end of the Cam Newton era in Carolina. The Panthers signed former Saints and Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year deal worth $63 million, albeit with a potential out in two years for $5 million in dead cap. They then traded Kyle Allen to Washington, as Allen disappointed last year filling in for the injured Cam Newton. They then signed P.J. Walker of the XFL to be the backup to Bridgewater. With these signings, it is clear that Cam Newton will not be resigned, and he is still waiting on an offer to be (likely) a backup in 2020. The Panthers made it a priority to extend their centerpiece, Christian McCaffrey, to a four-year deal worth upwards of $64 million, making him the highest paid running back in NFL history. Greg Olsen left the team in free agency, signing with the Seattle Seahawks for a one-year, $7 million deal to compete for the starting job and mentor their TE core. In the draft, the Panthers addressed their defensive needs, drafting defensive players with each of their picks. These extensive personnel changes continue with the hire of Matt Rhule to be the head coach of the Panthers, signing him to a seven-year contract worth $62 million. The Panthers then signed former LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady to be their new offensive coordinator, pairing him with Phil Snow as their defensive coordinator. With all of these changes, the fantasy ramifications are enormous. Let’s examine the impacts for 2020 and beyond in this Carolina Panthers Offseason Breakdown.
Offense: An Overview
With the change at head coach from Ron Rivera to Matt Rhule, the offense should play a larger role in the team’s success. Rhule emphasizes physicality and the importance of a solid running game, boding well for Christian McCaffrey. Joe Brady should be the primary play-caller in this offense, and although he employed a deep, dynamic passing attack at LSU, this could change in the NFL. As Brady claimed, “We have to find what our guys do well and put them in the best position to have success. Let’s find what they do well and do what they do well.” A likely offensive philosophy is looking for short- to mid-range plays given Bridgewater’s proficiency in the area and McCaffrey’s effectiveness on screens/short passes.
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy Bridgewater received his opportunity in 2019 and showed the NFL that he could still be a starter. In weeks 2-7 (Brees exited Week 2 early with a torn ligament in his thumb), Bridgewater posted a 67.6 completion percentage with 9 touchdowns to only 2 turnovers and a 16-game pace of 3,653 passing yards, the highest such pace of his career. Before his time with the Saints, Bridgewater succeeded with the Vikings, becoming a pro-bowler in 2015 before suffering a non-contact ACL tear and knee dislocation that reportedly could have led to amputation. Despite this potential career-ending injury, Bridgewater returned, and has regained a starting job in the league. Although he is a massive upgrade from Kyle Allen and he has weapons like CMC and D.J. Moore on his new team, Bridgewater isn’t much more than a game manager, and thus will likely stick to his strengths of facilitating in the short and intermediate game. The Panthers’ defense was addressed in the draft, but the unit still needs more work, as it ranked 31st in scoring defense and was the worst defense against the run in the league in terms of rushing touchdowns (31 allowed) and yards per rushing attempt (5.2 YPC). This should mean more passing attempts for Bridgewater. For fantasy, Bridgewater should be a valued as a low end QB 2 in both dynasty and redraft leagues.
P.J. Walker
P.J. Walker was one of the XFL’s standouts, with 15 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions over the five game season. Walker averaged nearly 270 passing yards per game, albeit against weaker defenses. His strong performances sparked NFL interest, and he eventually signed for two years and $1.565 million with the Panthers. P.J. is irrelevant for redraft leagues, but could be a deep SF/2QB stash in dynasty leagues, as Bridgewater is not necessarily irreplaceable if he falters.
Cam Newton
When the Panthers signed Bridgewater to a starting-level contract, it was clear that the Cam Newton era in Carolina had ended. With the COVID-19 pandemic preventing in-person visits, teams could not check Cam Newton’s injury status, a factor that likely contributed to him being unsigned as of now. At this stage, Cam will likely sign a one-year deal as a backup, looking to return to being a starter in 2021. For now, he is off the radar in redraft leagues, but is a definite hold in dynasty SF/2QB leagues, as he could return to being a starting QB after this season.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey put up historical numbers last year, totaling 2,392 all-purpose yards from scrimmage with over 1,000 rushing and receiving yards each (1,387 and 1,005 respectively). Additionally, he caught the second most receptions in the league at any position, with 116 receptions on 142 targets. McCaffrey was the absolute workhorse in Carolina last year, totaling 403 touches. This would rank 41st in NFL history in terms of touches in a season, however the only player with more touches in a season that is still playing is Le’Veon Bell. Running backs simply don’t get as much work anymore, as evidenced by the running back by committee (RBBC) approach taken by many teams around the league. While his touches should decrease to a more sustainable number, McCaffrey is still the undisputed RB1 in both redraft and dynasty leagues, and should be taken as the 1.01 in 1QB leagues. With McCaffrey’s record-breaking four-year contract extension, he has the contract security that is becoming invaluable in dynasty for running backs, furthering his case as the #1 asset.
Reggie Bonnafon
Reggie Bonnafon has no standalone value as the backup to CMC and is only a handcuff. While other handcuffs are worth rostering in redraft leagues because of their potential league-winning upside (e.g. Kareem Hunt (who also has standalone value), Latavius Murray, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, etc.), Bonnafon is not in that same tier. He does not have to be owned in redraft leagues, although the CMC owner should keep an eye on him on the waiver wire. He is a stash in dynasty leagues though, since benches are typically deeper and running backs are scarce.
Mike Davis
Mike Davis is the third-string running back on the Carolina Panthers’ depth chart, and thus is irrelevant for redraft and dynasty leagues. He will try to compete for the backup role, however as of now Bonnafon is still their second-string back.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore is the darling of the fantasy community, with many analysts and players alike expecting a Chris Godwin-type breakout season from him this year. To be clear, I don’t expect this level of success, however I do think he will be a valuable asset this year. Moore finished as the WR16 in 15 games last season, a remarkable achievement given that this was his sophomore season and his quarterback was Kyle Allen, who PFF ranked LAST among all starting QBs in the NFL, even behind Mason Rudolph of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He posted the sixth-highest contested catch percentage at 55.6% and was top ten in yards after the catch (YAC). His top-tier athleticism and 98th percentile breakout age made him an intriguing prospect coming into the league, and he has validated the hype. Moore should be valued as a WR1 in dynasty, and a fringe WR1 in redraft leagues with an upgrade in PPR formats.
Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel was disappointing last year for fantasy. Throughout last offseason, Samuel was touted as potentially the most valuable WR in Carolina, however he didn’t pan out. Samuel finished as the WR36 in PPR leagues last year, and was the WR49 in terms of fantasy points per game (FFPPG). While Samuel has top-end speed, shown by his 100th percentile 40-yard dash, his YAC ranks 74th in the league. This, combined with him ranking 94th in yards per target (YPT) means that he wasn’t able to consistently find holes in the defense and exploit them with his speed on short passing routes. In comparison, Tyreek Hill (who is also a speed demon that aims to break away with his speed) ranked 2nd in YAC in his last 16 game season (2018). This year, Samuel will face more competition for downfield targets with Robby Anderson in town, however if Samuel’s utilization follows last year’s data, the onus will fall on him to break free from the defense and create plays for himself. Samuel should be treated as a lower-end WR5 with upside in redraft leagues, and should receive an upgrade in dynasty leagues due to his age and talent.
Robby Anderson
Former Jets WR Robby Anderson was signed to a two-year, $20 million deal with the Panthers this offseason. Robby Anderson is a deep threat, evidenced by his top 10 ranking in average depth of target (aDOT) over the past two years. Anderson has shown flashes at times, however has not been consistent enough to sustain top-tier production, with his best year coming in 2017 with 200 PPR points (WR18). Anderson should be valued as a WR5 with upside in redraft leagues, and a low end WR5 in dynasty leagues.
Tight End
Ian Thomas
With the departure of Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas is now the starting tight end in Carolina. Thomas is an athletic prospect that has been relatively disappointing so far in his NFL career. Despite injuries to Olsen in the past, Thomas has never been able to capitalize for fantasy. He is an intriguing dynasty stash especially in TE premium leagues, however for non-premium redraft leagues he is best left on the waiver wire (but keep a close eye on him).
Final Thoughts
The Carolina Panthers completely overturned their QB room this offseason, bringing in Teddy Bridgewater as the starter and P.J. Walker as his backup. This marked the end of the Cam Newton (and Greg Olsen) era in Carolina, with Cam still seeking employment. Overall, the offense should improve from last year, with studs such as CMC and D.J. Moore leading the way. Combined with their defensive-oriented draft, the Panthers should be a much improved team from last season.
