I know it, you know it, Duval County knows it. The Jacksonville Jaguars are not expected to be good in 2020. According to Action Network, the Jaguars have the lowest projected win total in the NFL among betting circles at 5 wins. By trading superstar Jalen Ramsey to the LA Rams in the middle of last season and making offseason moves to send Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye out of Jacksonville, the Jaguars defense has become a younger shell of its former self.
Offensively, Jaguars brass axed the Foles-DeFilippo Experience in short order after discovering an unexpected diamond in the rough, Gardner Minshew II. They also reportedly made attempts to move on from fourth overall draft pick Leonard Fournette via trade, but to no avail. While they’ve brought in an experienced offensive mind in Jay Gruden as the new offensive coordinator, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the entirety of the Jaguars organization. What can we actually project and trust for Fantasy Football purposes for this team in 2020?
Offense: An Overview
To start, here’s a list of the Jaguars players I think are names to know, but are undraftable in most redraft leagues and deep-bench holds (not targets) in dynasty:
- Wide Receiver Dede Westbrook: The 4th-year wide receiver has even less of a chance to break out with two rookie additions to the team, but maybe he can beat out Laviska Shenault to be the #2 receiving option.
- Wide Receiver Chris Conley: While he and Westbrook are both starters on the current depth chart, Conley actually produced fewer receptions and yards than Westbrook last year.
- Wide Receiver Keelan Cole: The Jaguars re-signed Cole to a one-year, $3.26 million contract. Cole has shown flashes in the smallest way possible and is a backup on the depth chart.
- Wide Receiver Collin Johnson: The fifth round draft pick has little potential for 2020, but at 6′ 6″ and 222 lbs, has some upside to secure a role in the offense down the line.
- Tight End Tyler Eifert: The Jaguars signed Eifert to a two-year, $9.5 million deal. Jay Gruden has experience working with injury prone tight ends. So, Eifert’s got that going for him.
- Tight End Josh Oliver: Oliver was an early third-round draft pick (#69 overall) in 2019, but only caught 3 passes for 15 yards in his rookie year. He is THE definition of a lottery ticket.
Gardner Minshew II
“In Minshew we trust” was the mantra of many Jags fans upon the announcement of Nick Foles’ long term absence from the starting lineup. The mustachioed messiah Gardner Minshew was nothing but a sixth round draft pick before the start of the 2019 season, but the first page of his legend unfolded right before our eyes. Despite the aura of Minshew, we can’t objectively look at his 2019 season and draft him any earlier than the double digital rounds in redraft. Minshew finished as the QB18 in fantasy points per game and is being ranked as QB23 per FantasyPros expert consensus rankings (ECR).
Minshew is an exciting sleeper candidate for his ability to climb the pocket, escape from the clutches of hungry pass rushers, and make throws after the play breaks down. His upside to throw more, improve on his completion percentage, and gain fantasy points with his legs make him a spicy option in SuperFlex/2QB redraft leagues. I have Minshew on a couple of my dynasty rosters, so make no mistake that I am rooting for the underdog story to continue.
Leonard Fournette
Leonard Fournette is a fringe RB1 in 2020 and should be treated as nothing less. If you’re snagging him in the third round of your August drafts, feel good about it! Sure, his receiving numbers will regress from the 100 targets and 76 receptions he saw in 2019, (due to the presence of Chris Thompson) but Fournette has committed to working his ass off no matter what team he’s on, and his touchdown numbers should regress positively from 2019 when he only achieved 3 TDs on 300+ touches and 1,600+ yards. If anything about Fournette’s injury history scares you, refer to The Undroppables former resident medical expert, Edwin Porras, DPT, below.
Heard @Fantasy_Mansion talk about C. Thompson and Fournette Im @Fitz_FF pod. Couldn't agree more
* Fournette is 25 and successfully rehab'd ankle injuries (none since 2017)
* Thompson is 29 (his missed games in pic on left)Give me Fournette. All. Day. pic.twitter.com/7XymFmekNE
— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) July 23, 2020
Chris Thompson // Ryquell Armstead
As mentioned above, Chris Thompson may take away some receiving work from Fournette, but he’s no spring chicken himself. Multiple injuries throughout his career and being on the cusp of 30 is more than enough to cancel out his history with new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Ryquell Armstead is a name to know due to his youth, but Thompson is already listed on the depth chart above Armstead, so it’s hard to say he holds any value outside of being an injury-based handcuff.
D.J. Chark
D.J. Chark burst onto the scene last year, (with Minshew as his primary passer no less) compiling over 1,000 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns in his second season in the NFL. His ADP hovers in the middle rounds (early-5th on Fantasy Football Calculator, Half-PPR), but Chark has the makings of an even bigger breakout and is a value in current drafts. Most people project the Jaguars to throw more in 2020, and Chark is THE guy for Minshew to target in the passing game. I could easily see an uptick in aggregate targets for the team and target share for Chark specifically, meaning he could eat just as much as Fournette does this season.
With Minshew throwing to Chark regularly during his time on the field, there’s a definite connection there that can continue to blossom in 2020. Let’s not forget: Chark is going into his third year in the NFL, so he checks that Fantasy Football trope box as well. Chark profiles as a high-upside WR2, and I’d be willing to take shot on him if I’m going heavy on wide receiver in my redraft leagues. As for dynasty, Chark is a player to hold or buy now before his value (potentially) skyrockets.
Laviska Shenault
Laviska Shenault is the ‘shiny new toy’ for Jay Gruden and Gardner Minshew to work with in Jacksonville. He’s a playmaker out of Colorado who can do it all over the field. His talent and success at the collegiate level was validated in the 2020 NFL Draft, when the Jaguars selected him with a second round pick. While Shenault underwent core surgery for a looming injury in early March, expect the 6’1″, 227-pound wide receiver to be ready to go for camp and to make an impact in this offense immediately. He could easily shine on the field and become the #2 receiving option for this team; if he’s as talented as he’s scouted out to be, he’ll earn the opportunity.
If you’re worried about Shenault’s injury history, allow our medical expert Adam Hutchinson, PT, DPT, to assuage your concerns through his Injury Outlook article written on our site in May.
Final Thoughts
Despite my comfort with most Jaguars’ current ADP in redraft, I still have some trepidation toward Jacksonville’s offense for fantasy football purposes going into 2020. While being behind more often can lead to more pass attempts, it’s not always an indicator of more fantasy points. Each of the players I dove deep on are startable in the right scenario, but it’s important to be flexible and play matchups accordingly as we learn more throughout the season. This is especially important when a below average team (like the Jaguars) will be facing a strong opponent.
