It is early in the NFL Season and, like much of 2020, it’s already felt as if an entire season of drama has occurred. It’s been especially dramatic when it comes to injuries and disappointing performances from some of our favorite players. But after 3 short weeks, is it OK to go on full tilt on some players?
In a year without a preseason and a shortened training camp, shouldn’t we expect a slow start? It’s hard to chalk up some of this season’s early disappointments to teams just needing time to get up to speed, when other players have already proved their fantasy worth, as well as some exceeding early expectations.
Coupled with the dizzying array of injuries that occurred in Week 2 continuing now in to Week 4, I know some fantasy managers that are already on full tilt. In dynasty, it’s not surprising to see someone already throw in the towel and call this as a rebuild year. They are selling off assets for future draft picks or just dumping the “old guys”. In redraft, it may be the right time to make some moves in order to turn your team around before it starts to get bad. Conversely, it may be just the right time to pick off some pieces from tilting league mates that will turn into gold come fantasy playoff time.
Here are 3 of my early season trade targets for seasonal leagues.
Joe Mixon
The Bad
Is there any other early round draft pick more disappointing so far this season than Joe Mixon? Don’t ask our friend @DaBeezyBFF as he’s the biggest Mixon Stan I know. But with a startup ADP of RB8, (10th overall) his early return on a large investment is hovering in the negative category. He’s healthy, he just got a contract extension, and he’s coming off 2 back-to-back 1,100-yard rushing seasons, but his offensive line is ranked 26th in the league by Brad Wire’s offensive line rankings.
Taking a closer look at his Next Gen Stats, Mixon is only seeing stacked boxes 7.69% of the time, is one of the least efficient rushers (5.4 rating), has one of the worst rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.63), and in Week 3 did not have a single rush over 10 yards. Well those numbers suck, so why am I recommending you trade for him? Because Mixon is historically a slow starter and he’s still handling 70% of the team’s RB touches in every game he’s played this season. Among some fine company as John Daigle points out.
List of players who have handled 70% of team’s RB touches in every game played thus far:
Ezekiel Elliott, PPR RB3
James Robinson, RB5
Josh Jacobs, RB7
Derrick Henry, RB11
CEH, RB12
David Johnson, RB21
Miles Sanders, RB29
Joe Mixon, RB38— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 1, 2020
The Good
The good news is that Mixon is seeing an increase in his snap share (71% in Week 3), rushing an average of 17 times with 3 receptions per game (20 touches/game), and is 6th in rushing attempts (52). The opportunity is there and like any good football team, Zac Taylor will evaluate the deficiencies in the offense and work to make their best player successful. Also, they have a young QB that they spent the overall #1 pick on in this year’s draft to bring up to speed. The offense will not run the same in the 2nd half of the season as it did in the 1st half. Currently Joe Burrow is 2nd in attempts only behind Dak Prescott.
They are trying to get Burrow up to game speed through trial by fire, especially since we missed a preseason for him to practice against other competition. Mixon is on pace for his typical usage in both the rushing and passing game. This all leads me to believe that once the offense is dialed in, Mixon will end up right where he belongs: in the RB1 category. Andy Singleton breaks down Mixon’s stats from last year and you can see the trend line increasing as the season goes on.
Joe Mixon by the numbers (rejoice)
Games 1-4: 46.4 ypg, 0.1 TD/g
Games 5-8: 54.1 ypg, 0.4 TD/g
Games 9-12: 69.9 ypg, 0.5 TD/g
Games 13-16: 95.4 ypg, 0.5 TD/gHave faith. Buy low. He's never been a fast starter, and this is the best offense he's been in as a pro #FantasyFootball
— 𝘼𝙣𝙙𝙮 𝙎𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚𝙩𝙤𝙣 (@PeoplezPen) September 29, 2020
Targeting the Tilt
Look to trade an early producing RB that is stuck in a timeshare and has a tough ROS schedule. Some names that come to mind are McKinnon, Burkhead, or Kelley.
DJ Moore
The Bad
One simple search of his name in Twitter from this past week will bring up a bevvy of disappointed DJ Moore shareholders wondering if the young WR decided to retire early. And with good reason: DJ Moore, touted as a top 10 WR all offseason, is now currently sitting at WR28 behind players such as Cole Beasley. When you’re drafting a player at WR9, (27th overall) you’re expecting a lot more from a 2nd/3rd round pick.
While he has started this season very slow, it’s not beyond the norm, as his short three-year career has been made in the second half of each season. In fact, his 2019 numbers through two weeks are nearly identical to his 2020 numbers, as seen below. And as @FantasyReserve puts it, “But yeah, sure, ‘He’s not the same'”.
DJ Moore through 2 weeks in 2019:
24 Targets, 16 rec, 165 yards, 0 TD’s
WR27 , 30.5 PPR2020:
22 targets, 12 rec, 174 yards, 0 TD’s
WR21 , 29.4 PPRBut yeah, sure, “He’s not the same”
— Fantasy Reserve 🏈 (@FantasyReserve) September 27, 2020
The Good
Moore had a nice Week 2 due to volume, (13 targets, 8 receptions, 120 yards) but he hasn’t found the end zone yet. Besides a traditionally slow start, some of Moore’s troubles are due to meshing with a new QB and new WR to compete over targets with. Teddy Bridgewater is playing OK, as he’s currently 7th in yards and 3rd in completion percentage.
I was also worried about targets, but Moore is 11th in the league in targets with 26 (9th for WR), and Robby Anderson is only 4 spots behind with 24. However, Robby is also 9th in receptions and 5th in yards. The opportunities are there for Moore, but Anderson is taking greater advantage of his. Moore does account for almost 50% of the team’s yardage on deep throws, so once these deep shots hit, he’ll be back to being a fantasy darling.
And there’s the deep shot:
Bridgewater to DJ Moore, who finally gets on the board with his first grab today. pic.twitter.com/HNDzGRqCzV
— John Ellis (@OnePantherPlace) September 27, 2020
Targeting the Tilt
If you have a less-experienced wide receiver on your squad who has flashed early like Allen Lazard, see if you can package him with someone else for Moore.
Marquise Brown
The Bad
Marquise Brown is losing his Hollywood moniker in 2020, as he’s shown very little flash after a promising Week 1. He’ll have to work hard to earn it back and make up for his ADP of WR30, as he’s currently performing as WR62 per Fantasy Pros. He’s had a steady 6 targets each game and was able to make the most of those targets in Week 1. But even though he caught 5 of 6 balls in Week 2, he was only able to turn that into 42 yards and 0 TDs. Week 3 was even worse (2 for 6, 13 yards, 0 TDs).
Another stat hurting Brown’s success is scheme-based, as the Ravens are currently dead last in passing attempts per game with 26 (Team Rankings). They are throwing on 50% of their plays per Zach Krueger (@FFTroglodyte) as shown below. Brown also has only 31 yards after catch, (YAC) but is 16th in average targeted air yards (TAY; 14.1). This means the Ravens are mostly just trying to throw the ball deep to Brown, and they aren’t doing it very often. With how much Lamar Jackson runs the ball, it’s not a good mix for creating a path to real fantasy relevancy for an up-and-coming WR.
The Ravens have thrown on 50% of their plays this season. Marquise Brown is averaging 6 targets/gm.
This is not the path to a WR1.
It’s not even the path to a WR2.
I really want Marquise Brown to hit, but things must drastically change for that to happen. pic.twitter.com/UpzraRlvYC
— Fantasy Football Troglodyte (@FFTroglodyte) September 29, 2020
The Good
You really have to comb through the data (like using a hair pick to comb the desert) and turn to his prospect profile to find the good with Brown right now. He’s top 50 in snap share at 69.4% so he’s on the field a ton. But as mentioned earlier, the Ravens aren’t passing the ball that much. While he is 16th in TAY, he’s also 9th in percent of team’s air yards (36.7%).
As shown below in the tweet from Jacob Gibbs, he’s in the running with some of the best in the league in hogging air yards. And even though he’s only received 6 targets per game, he’s 7th in the league when it comes to deep targets with 6, averaging 2 per game. Lamar Jackson is trying to hit Brown on those deep shots as opposed to getting him the ball near the line of scrimmage and letting him run with it. Brown has the speed and the Ravens are trying to use that deep threat talent as it should be used, but they need to pump those numbers way up.
Air yard hogs:
(Players responsible for the highest % of their team's air yards)53% – Edelman
49% – D.J. Moore
48.5% – Thielen
47.1% – Metcalf
43.4% – OBJ
43.1% – Ridley
39.3% – Keenan Allen
36.1% – Marquise Brown
35.8% – Hilton
34.7% – Slayton
34.7% – MVS
33.9% – McLaurin— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 30, 2020
Targeting the Tilt
Go after Marquise Brown as a package deal with another stud (Carson/Taylor) for players like Amari Cooper and Nyheim Hines for example.
The perfect trade rarely occurs, and each trade is unique based on roster construction, trade partners, and urgency. If you have any specific questions on trades, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @2on1FFB as well as the rest of the Undroppables squad!
