Final Exam is a statistical deep-dive into a select group of prospects from each rookie class. With an analytics-driven approach, an objective breakdown is provided so readers can properly adjust their perspectives from a dynasty lens.
Note: These statistics are current as of December 25, 2019 (before Week 17 games).
Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks
Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs
In the 2019 rookie class, there were 7 notable wide receivers many considered to be first or second round talent (with the exception of Terry “F1” McLaurin who had a third round rookie ADP).
- N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots
- A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
- D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
- Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
- Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
- Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Although the data sets for Campbell and Harry were limited due to missed games caused by injuries, these two were included to provide a comprehensive look at the top prospects in the 2019 WR class.
Receiving
A.J. Brown, posted a rookie best 927 receiving yards on 48 receptions (2nd). Brown also had a whopping 19.3 yards per reception in his rookie year with Marcus Mariota under center for 5 games to start the season.
In terms of receptions, McLaurin led the rookie pack with 58 catches. F1 was 2nd among rookies with 919 receiving yards while tying D.K. Metcalf with 15.8 yards per reception. Metcalf was third among rookies in receiving yards with 819.
The aforementioned Metcalf and his NFC West counterpart, Deebo Samuel, both caught 52 balls as the alpha receiving options for their teams. Deebo posted 700 receiving yards and a solid 13.5 yards per reception. As we will discuss below, Deebo’s yardage was driven heavily by his yards after catch ability as he recorded below average air yards.
Due to lack of games played, N’Keal Harry (9/76) and Parris Campbell (18/127) were nonfactors with minimal reception and yardage totals.
Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average
Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) – Per Football Outsiders, this metric gives the value of the performance on plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) – Per Football Outsiders, this metric represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance.
A quick glance at the table above shows that both A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin were head and shoulders above the rest of the 2019 class when looking at DYAR and DVOA. Their 200+ defense-adjusted yards above replacement level and the excellent DVOA scores are positive signs for two players who are emerging as the number one options for their teams (see below “Targets and HOG Rate”). Brown posted scores of 208 and 24.1% while McLaurin had a DYAR of 212 and a DVOA of 18.7%.
Deebo (105/7.5%), Metcalf (90/0.4%) and Hollywood (95/4.5%) each lacked consistency from week to week facing different defensive looks, which is illustrated by their sub-par to average DYAR and DVOA scores.
Due to missed games and lack of production, Harry (-10/-21.4%) and Campbell (-108/-75.8%) scored extremely poorly in terms of DYAR and DVOA.
Targets and HOG Rate
Target Share – Measures the percentage of all passing targets directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that that receiver was involved in the passing attack.
HOG Rate – Captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. Read more about HOG Rate here as broken down by Terminator.
Although no rookie receiver cracked the top 30 among WRs in HOG Rate, Hollywood Brown had a respectable rate of 14.6%. Marquise saw 69 targets (5.6 per game), good for a 21% share of the Ravens’ team targets.
F1 had the highest target total and target share amount rookies with 93 targets and a 22.9% share, ranking him 22nd among all wide receivers. Metcalf also saw 20% of his team’s targets with 88 looks from Russ.
In terms of targets per game, Campbell’s lack of opportunity despite a shallow receiving corps in Indy could be another red flag in addition to his inability to stay healthy. Both A.J. and Marquise Brown, Deebo, McLaurin, and D.K. averaged at least 5 targets per game, which provides WR3 level floors.
Yards After Catch and Catch Rate
True Catch Rate – Captures a player’s ability to secure the football in all situations regardless of the level of difficulty by dividing the total receptions by total catchable targets.
* Denotes Catch Rate as True Catch Rate was not available for this player.
Once again, A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel stand out in the analysis, showing how dangerous they are with the ball in their hands. Their yards after catch totals led rookies (300+ ypc). When you factor in their 80% true catch rates, it’s becoming clear that these young guns can make plays.
With solid true catch and contested catch rates, McLaurin was among the league leaders in both categories. This speaks volumes to his ability to go up and get the ball over defenders with sure hands, making him a reliable and consistent weapon.
In somewhat of a surprise, Marquise Brown, known as a burner during the pre-draft process, led all rookies in true catch rate.
Again, due to lack of opportunities on the field (caused by injuries), Harry and Campbell did not post any numbers of significance in these categories.
Air Yards
Air Yards – For wide receivers, air yards are total completed receiving yards from the line of scrimmage to the catch point.
Another measure of productivity is air yards, which shows how far the receiver is getting down the field before getting the ball. McLaurin (636) led all rookie WRs with Metcalf (578) and AJB (508) close behind. Hollywood posted 373 total air yards while averaging 5.6 air yards per target.
Deebo may be a gamechanger but his low air yards total (301) with a mediocre-at-best 4.3 air yards per target, shows that he is generally getting the ball close to the line of scrimmage.
Campbell may boast breakaway speed and elusiveness, but his 1.1 air yards per target may be a sign that he will be confined to a gadget role. Harry mainly operated in red zone packages when he was available, which is reflected with a minimal 3.6 air yards per target and 50 total air yards.
Red Zone Usage and Touchdowns
Red Zone Target Share – Measures the percentage of all passing targets from a line of scrimmage at or inside the 20-yard line directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that the receiver was involved in the passing attack.
Not surprisingly, the WRs with good size saw the most red zone targets and red zone target share in year one: Deebo (16/23.5%), D.K. (13/18.8%) and McLaurin (13/23.6%). Correspondingly, these three along with Hollywood (12/19.7%) saw the highest red zone target share among rookie WRs.
A.J. Brown may have not seen even a 20% red zone target share, but he still demonstrated a propensity to score with 7 touchdown receptions while seeing 8 red zone targets. F1 and Hollywood also posted 7 receiving scores.
Drops
The key takeaways here are that each of these first-year receivers had their share of (bad) drops, which isn’t surprising for rookies. However, Samuel, in particular, had an alarming drop rate of 12.9%. Metcalf also had a fairly high drop rate of 6.9%.
Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)
A.J. Brown (WR22) had a spectacular rookie year, putting up 194.7 total PPR points (13 ppg). This is an impressive feat given he played in a run-heavy scheme with two different QBs while adjusting to the NFL game.
Terry McLaurin (WR25) started off fast like a F1 racecar, hit a midseason rookie wall and then broke through to finish off the season. Like Brown, McLaurin played with multiple signal callers in his first year. As of Week 16, McLaurin scored 191.9 points in PPR formats (13.7 ppg).
D.K. Metcalf had an up and down season that culminated in a WR3 finish. Not bad for a player who was mocked for 3-cone drills and pegged as a one-dimensional threat. With 167 total points scored (11.1 ppg), Metcalf finishes as WR34.
Deebo Samuel scored 148.8 points (11.4) and ranked as the 42nd ranked WR. Marquise Brown was close behind at 44, scoring 142.9 PPR points (11 ppg).
Harry (26.7/5.3) and Campbell (38.1/5.4) each ranked outside the top 100 with minor contributions.
Grades
* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.
N’Keal Harry – When he was drafted by the Patriots, many considered Harry to be a lock for instant NFL success. With his college production, athletic profile, and skill set, there is no reason why Harry cannot be a solid contributor for years to come. However, the biggest question mark heading into 2020 beyond is the status of Tom Brady. Where will the GOAT play next season and the years after? If Brady leaves, does Belichick retire? Those are legitimate questions and concerns for Patriots fans and Harry owners alike. This year has to be written off as a redshirt season due to an ankle injury that forced him on IR to start his career so the jury is still out on whether Harry will find the success that is well within reach. He’s a buy low WR4 based on youth and potential.
Talent – ✅
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ?
A.J. Brown – Coming into his rookie year, A.J. Brown was considered by many to be the top WR prospect in this year’s class (Shoutout to Samuel Wallace over at DFF). The season that Brown put together with 927 receiving yards on only 48 receptions is proof that he can flat out make plays. He also posted four games over 100 receiving yards (as noted above). Looking at his situation is another story, although not necessarily negative. Ryan Tannehill stepped in as the Titans’ QB and turned things around quickly. Now faced with a decision on whether to franchise tag or extend Tannehill, the Titans’ decision will play a major factor in Brown’s immediate (and continued) success. Personally, I am not sold that Tannehill is a true long term (or even viable) solution. He may end up to be the next Nick Foles. Currently, with Tannehill projected to be around, Brown is locked in as a solid WR3 with WR2 upside.
Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?
Deebo Samuel – Deebo was drafted to put heat on Dante Pettis but Samuel ended up torching the incumbent. A bigger, faster and better version of Pettis, the 49ers rookie made splash plays throughout the season. Kyle Shanahan has looked to get the ball to Samuel in the red zone so the scoring upside is there. And although San Francisco tries to grind down their opponents with a three-headed RBBC, Samuel provides the offense with a spark that adds a whole different dynamic. This contrast from the run dominant approach allows Samuel to catch opposing defenses off guard for chunk gains, enhanced by his YAC ability. While he finishes as a mid-range WR4 in year one, Deebo has WR3 upside written all over him.
Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?
D.K. Metcalf – Metcalf entered the league with hopeful, yet tempered, expectation as he did not have elite college production nor workout metrics. He also looked clunky on tape during team drills during the offseason, but Metcalf put those doubts to rest early in his career with lines of 6/68 and 7/75 in Weeks 3 and 4. D.K. continued to produce throughout the season, flashing WR2 upside with a 24.3 point outing in Week 8 then scoring 2 TDs the following week. Metcalf’s target share, catch rate and air yards are all positive indicators of future production and success. In terms of situation, Metcalf finds himself in probably the most stable one while being tied to an elite QB in Wilson. Metcalf is also shaping up as the Seahawk’s #1 passing option with his size and speed.
Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?
Parris Campbell – Campbell has the draft capital to support our notions that he is a talented and promising player. But due to his failure to stay healthy and ultimately get on the playing field, his evaluation is incomplete at this time.
Talent – ❔
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ❔
Terry McLaurin – F1 checked all of the boxes in the rookie evaluation process: production, opportunity, playmaking, reliability, and consistency. The numbers speak for themselves as McLaurin ranked near or at the top in essentially of the categories above. On the other hand, the red flags with McLaurin are the Washington offense (quarterback, offensive line, coaching) and the real possibility that the Redskins add another WR in the draft or free agency to soak up targets. The team desperately needs playmakers. Haskins struggled and failed to resemble the franchise QB that he was drafted to be. Even though McLaurin and Haskins have the OSU connection, none of that matter if Haskins can’t give his teammate catchable targets. McLaurin is a very talented player with the potential to be a WR1 if Washington can figure things out. As frustrating as it is, we just need to wait and hope for the best.
Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?
Marquise Brown – Hollywood had a respectable rookie season from a utilization standpoint (strong target share and HOG rate), but left some to be desired in the productivity categories. Battling back from a Lisfranc injury, Brown missed a number of games that affected his production. On the other hand, Brown was targeted often by MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and consistently secured the balls thrown his way. High utilization in a high-powered offense led by a dynamic playmaker in Lamar Jackson has all the makings of a “Hollywood” success story.
Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?
