What IS Adaptive Draft Strategy?
There are countless draft strategies out there going by the names of Zero RB, Zero WR, Late Round QB, and Value Based Drafting. All of them can work, and all of them can fail. You need to have a plan when drafting if you want to have success, but you also need to be able to adapt to the draft. This is where Adaptive Draft Strategy comes into play.
Why use Adaptive Draft Strategy instead of Zero RB draft for instance? Zero RB is a draft strategy in which is the person drafting will draft wide receivers heavily in the early rounds and wait on a running backs. Well what if you are drafting with other players all trying to do Zero RB, and a couple of running backs you have rated very high slide to you, do you pass on them to stick to your strategy? Even though the wide receivers you thought would be there are gone? The answer is simply no, oh my god, no. Draft those running backs and adapt to what is coming your way.
To get you to understand my philosophy on life and in this case drafting, I believe you need to have a plan, and a big part of that plan is to adapt to things that are occurring. There is a quote from Charles Darwin: “Adapt or Die.” I literally say this to people all the time.
What the F%@$ does that mean Mike, why are you such a nerd that you bring Darwin into drafting for fantasy football? Well, I am going to let Bruce Lee help me explain this as well. Bruce Lee created a style of martial arts called Jete Kune Do. A famous quote from Bruce Lee is, ‘When the opponent expands, I contract. When he contracts, I expand. And when there is an opportunity, I do not hit. It hits all by itself.”
I work in IT and when things (often) do not go as planned, we can adapt the plan, or we can stick to a plan that is failing us. Plan in a way that you can change what you are doing to have success with, even when your original plan isn’t working. You need to be prepared for how the draft will change your plan and you need to adapt on the fly.
How does all that pertain to drafting? I zig when they zag. If everyone is drafting running backs, it is amazing how many awesome wide receivers are immediately available that you didn’t think would be there. So, draft a wide receiver. If people start a tight end trend, don’t panic and fall into it, draft a running back that might be higher on your board. It is a combination of dictating what you are doing and letting the draft come to you at the same time. Remember, it does not matter which position or which player points come from, what matters is that you get more points than your opponent week to week during the season.
There is a caveat though: In order to use an Adaptive Draft Strategy like this, you have to be prepared.
Preparing for the Draft
- Ranks – Either take rankings from known resources such as The Undroppables, ESPN, Yahoo, or perhaps the ones I have made available here: https://t.co/cgo52PuOtG?amp=1
- Tiers – Lay out players in tiers by placing players that will produce relatively the same amount of points over the season in groups together. I typically do this by position and then have an understanding of who I find more valuable overall. Placing players in tiers also allows you to stay focused on the tier and not individual players. When there are five players in a certain tier and I am looking to draft one player from that tier, I do not usually care which one I get, as long as I get one of them.
- ADP – Average Draft Position (ADP) gives you an idea of where a player should be drafted. Understanding where players may go in the draft will help you plan for when a player should be drafted. If there are players you are really high on, it will also give you an idea of when you may want to reach for someone that you really want.
- League Scoring Settings – You need to understand the scoring settings of you league as that will change the value of certain players. If you play PPR, then running backs that can catch passes become more valuable than running backs that don’t. Wide receivers that see a lot of targets also become much more valuable than big play guys in PPR. Know the scoring settings it will have a drastic effect on how you should value players.
- Rosters – You want to know how many players start at each position, number flex spots, and bench spots there are on your roster. You may also play in a league where you can only draft a certain number of players at each position. This information is needed prior to the draft.
- Bye Weeks – It is important to know when are occurring for your players so you can field a team every week. But I will throw out there I don’t pay as much attention to bye weeks as others do. If there is high value on a player and the bye week is the only thing keeping you from drafting that player, draft the player. Don’t talk yourself out of the best player available because you might have too many players with the same bye week. A lot of things can change between your draft and Week 3.
- Reaching – I say it all the time to people, but do not be afraid to reach for someone you want or need. If you look and see someone that you want to draft, all your research made this payer a target of yours. Draft that player and don’t risk that they won’t come back to you. It is your team and you should get the guys you will provide success.
- Getting Sniped – This is when someone right before you drafts the player you had in the queue. Don’t get mad! You should feel good that others agree with where you see value. This is the reason for putting players into tiers. That way, you will be able to find someone else in the same tier you have laid out.
- Draft Board – Be aware of other teams needs if possible. If it’s a live draft and that is up in front of you, it’s easy to see other teams needs. If you don’t have a player at a certain position and someone else also has that need as the draft progresses, you both may be vying for the same player. You’ll want to be aware so you can fill your positional needs with the best players available.
- Late Rounds – I tend to look for high upside players in the late rounds. Players that have the potential to become valuable. The backup running back to an injury prone running back. Players that have new coaching staffs or have joined new teams where they will get the opportunity to produce. You want to be the guy at the draft when you name a player and almost everyone else says, “who, who the hell is that?” It is fun and it makes them all question themselves.
- Mock – Do some mock drafts prior to your draft. I typically use Yahoo for this. I like to do a mock per week leading up to the draft. It will help you understand ADP and where some players really will be taken in your own draft. Plus, it’s fun.
- Draft on the turn – If you are drafting first or last in a snake draft, you get to draft on the turn. One of my favorite things is to draft on one of the turns. Often you get to dictate the next round when you pick here. Doing a running back, running back or a tight end tight end on the turn can cause havoc to your league mates and put them in panic mode. The turn is a great place to dictate how others will draft. It allows you to see if they can adapt to you.
Wrapping it up
Be prepared with player rankings and some sort of understanding of ADP. Know your league settings for scoring and rosters. Lay out players in tiers or groupings of players that will produce at relatively the same level for the season. Adapt to what is occurring, and don’t feel the need to stick to drafting a running back in the third round if a player at a different position has higher value. Most importantly have fun! Don’t stress out. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun.
If you need help to prepare, you can find me, @MikeReedyFF, on Twitter.
