AFC East Offseason Outlook (2021 Fantasy Football)

As we wrap our heads around a potential landmark year in offseason moves, The Undroppables will be breaking down each division team by team, highlighting the key players at each skill position for their offense, how they performed in 2020, and what could change for them in 2021.

We move from the NFC East to the AFC East, again featuring the writing from one of the newest Undroppables, Michael Duncan.

Buffalo Bills

2020 Fantasy Results

• QB: Josh Allen, QB1 (25.32 PPG)
• RB: Devin Singletary, RB34 (7.8 PPG)
• WR: Stefon Diggs, WR3 (16.6 PPG)
• TE: Dawson Knox, TE36 (5.0 PPG)

Projected Starters for 2021

• QB: Josh Allen
• RB: Devin Singletary
• WR: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley
• TE: Dawson Knox

Potential Offseason Changes

Coming off the best season they’ve had in decades, the most important offseason development for Buffalo is Brian Daboll staying on as offensive coordinator. A hot head coaching candidate, it was widely expected he would leave town, but the man at least partially responsible for Josh Allen’s improvement will be back in Buffalo for 2021. While the Bills have quite a few notable free agents on the defensive side of the ball, the starting offense looks to stay mostly intact.

Among those scheduled to be free agents, however, are offensive line starters Jon Feliciano, Ike Boettger, and Darryl Williams. While they are currently projected at about $10M over the cap (per Spotrac), it would be surprising to see all three of them walk in free agency. While most skill positions should be expected to return, John Brown has a $9.45M cap hit in 2021, with a dead cap hit of only $1.6M if he’s cut. I expect them to move on from John Brown and lean on Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, as well as rely on the continued breakout of 2020 rookie Gabriel Davis, who looked great toward the end of the 2020 season.

Free Agency and the Draft

As the Bills are currently projected over the 2021 cap number, I don’t expect them to make any big moves in Free Agency. I think the one thing they’ll do that will impact fantasy players will be to keep some of their veterans along the offensive line. Even if they cut John Brown, the Bill’s shouldn’t be players for any of the big names at wide receiver entering free agency this year.

The Bills have the 30th overall pick in the draft, as well as two other picks in the top 100. While I expect the offensive line or defense to be a greater focus for the Bills in the draft, expect them to spend a Day 2 or Day 3 pick on a wide receiver. With John Brown possibly being a cap casualty and Cole Beasley getting older every year (aren’t we all), it should be a priority for the Bills to add more young talent at the position to grow alongside Gabriel Davis and Josh Allen.

Miami Dolphins

2020 Fantasy Results

• QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB28 (16.07 PPG)
• RB: Myles Gaskin, RB27 (14.4 PPG)
• WR: DeVante Parker, WR42 (9.6 PPG)
• TE: Mike Gesicki, TE7 (8.9 PPG)

Projected Starters for 2021:

• QB: Tua Tagovailoa
• RB: Myles Gaskin
• WR: DeVante Parker
• TE: Mike Gesicki

Potential Offseason Changes

So far, there have yet to be many major changes to the Dolphins this offseason, with the exception of offensive coordinator. Chan Gailey was fired at the end of the season, and the Dolphins have actually promoted two guys from their own staff to be…co-offensive coordinators. Sure. Alright. Whatever. It’s currently unknown who will be calling plays or how this collaboration will work, but your guess is as good as mine

The biggest question for the Dolphins will be the quarterback position. For the past month there have been rumors of Deshaun Watson wanting out of Houston, of the Dolphins being disappointed with the development of Tua Tagovailoa, and everything in between. Since I am no NFL insider, I can’t tell you I have any real clue what will happen, but I do know that Watson would be an instant upgrade for any pass catcher on this offense.

Tagovailoa single-handedly seemed to crash the value of the WRs in the Dolphins last season, and although there were other factors in play, it was very clear that the offense was operating at a higher level with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center. If Tagovailoa is the QB in 2021, we may see a similar run-heavy approach to this offense, where Tagovailoa is asked to do little more than manage the game and avoid turning the ball over.

Free Agency and the Draft

The Dolphins are currently projected to have somewhere around $20M in cap space to play with this offseason. With the exception of Ryan Fitzpatrick, they don’t have many big names on offense entering free agency, but I do see a chance for the Dolphins to be one of the more interesting teams heading into free agency. Whether it be through free agency or the draft, I believe the Dolphins need to upgrade the wide receiver position, and possibly even add a higher profile name at running back. They very well might believe that adding a talented WR like Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson could help Tua’s development…or they convince Deshaun Watson to waive his no-trade clause and come to Miami. Either way, outside of an inconsistent DeVante Parker, an oft-injured Preston Williams, and a still very raw, yet talented, Lynn Bowden Jr., it’s clear they need more at the wide receiver position.

Assuming there’s not a blockbuster trade before draft day, the Dolphins currently own the 3rd and 18th overall picks in the NFL Draft, as well as a plethora of other picks. Regardless of whether they sign a big name at wide receiver in free agency, in another deep draft at the position I would expect an early round wide receiver for the Dolphins. There is hype gathering around the idea of even spending the 3rd overall pick on one of the top wide receivers in the draft, Devonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase. Also, while former 7th round pick Myles Gaskin performed admirably while getting a heavy workload, seeing how the Dolphins seemed to prefer having a workhorse, it would not shock me to see them end up with one of the top rookie running backs, such as Travis Ettienne or Najee Harris. So many different things could happen for this team, but almost all of them involve an offseason with lots of fantasy implications.

New England Patriots

2020 Fantasy Results

• QB: Cam Newton, QB16 (17.93 PPG)
• RB: Rex Burkhead, RB44 (9.5 PPG)
• WR: Jakobi Meyers, WR57 (8.1 PPG)
• TE: Ryan Izzo, TE62 (2.4 PPG)

Projected Starters for 2021

• QB: ???
• RB: Damien Harris
• WR: N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers
• TE: Devin Asiasi or Dalton Keene

Potential Offseason Changes

After finishing 2020 with just 8 passing TD’s, the biggest departure this offseason will be that of quarterback Cam Newton, and the biggest question will most likely be how the Patriots go about handling the quarterback position as a whole. In a season where they were dead in the water when it comes to their cap situation, last season comes off as a real chicken or the egg situation. Did the pass catchers look so bad because their quarterback is washed, or did Newton look horrible because he was throwing to replacement-level players?

We may never really know the true answer to that question, because in an offseason where the Pats have over $50M in cap room and a strong set of draft picks, many of the Patriots’ 2021 starters may not even be on the roster yet. Along with Newton, the Patriots have offensive lineman Joe Thuney and Jermaine Eluemunor set to hit free agency, which could lead to a bit of a retooling along the offensive line.

At the running back position, per usual we probably have no clue what Bill Belichick is actually thinking. James White and Rex Burkhead are heading to free agency, leaving the Patriots with Sony Michel, Damien Harris and 2020 rookie J.J. Taylor. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Belichick add more depth to the running backs room, but chances are that the fantasy outlook will be similar to previous seasons, which is to say…frustrating.

Free Agency and the Draft

As previously noted, the Patriots go into the offseason with over $50M in cap space and most likely look to add playmakers for whomever replaces Cam Newton in 2021. One would expect them to not only be in the market for some of the big name wide receivers but also possibly a tight end like Hunter Henry if the Chargers allow him to hit the open market. A season after spending two third round picks on rookie tight ends in Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, they have to be disappointed not only in the lack of production, but also in the lack of flashes. Tight ends do take time to develop, but it was disheartening to not see much reason for excitement for their future.

As for who replaces Cam Newton, your guess is as good as mine. Matt Stafford reportedly did not want to play there, and I’m not sure if the Patriots will look to add any of the marquee names that may be available through trade or otherwise. I think a much more likely scenario would be the Patriots getting a middling option such as Jimmy Garoppolo or Ryan Fitzpatrick and pairing them with a rookie.

Having the 15th pick in the NFL draft puts the Patriots in a position where, barring a trade upward, they are most likely out of the range for the top four quarterback prospects. They do have six picks in the first four rounds, so moving up is a possibility, but it will be interesting to see if they like guys like Mac Jones or Kyle Trask enough to take them at #15. Other than quarterback, on a roster that is largely devoid of young talent, I don’t think any position is really out of the question, but they are likely to miss on the top two wide receiver prospects and maybe even the top tight end in Kyle Pitts.

That being said, if the Patriots leave the draft without spending a Day One or Day Two pick on an offensive playmaker, ideally a wide receiver, Patriots fans would have a right to be worried. Former first round pick N’Keal Harry is likely on his last chance to prove he’s not a bust, and undrafted free agent (UDFA) Jakobi Meyers spent 2020 as their most productive wideout, which is a testament to where they’re at with the position.

New York Jets

2020 Fantasy Results

• QB: Sam Darnold, QB30 (12.09 PPG)
• RB: Frank Gore, RB46 (6.2 PPG)
• WR: Jamison Crowder, WR39 (11.9 PPG)
• TE: Chris Herndon IV, TE35 (4.2 PPG)

Projected Starters for 2021:

• QB: Sam Darnold or Rookie
• RB: La’Mical Perine or Rookie
• WR: Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder
• TE: Chris Herndon IV

Potential Offseason Changes

First things first, I think a safe assumption to make about the Jets in 2021 is improvement across the board, simply because of the firing of head coach Adam Gase. By bringing in defensive-minded Robert Saleh as head coach, there were a decent amount of questions about what the Jets offense will look like in 2021. With the hiring of Mike LaFleur as offensive coordinator however, it seems most of those questions were answered, assuming he’ll run an offense similar to that of his mentor Kyle Shanahan. This should be viewed as a positive for most players on this offense, especially whomever may be the starting running back in 2021, given how well that system is at producing fantasy relevant running backs.

As the largest cap hit in 2021, Jamison Crowder could be cut to save $11M, but with the Jets having over $60M in cap space, it’s not a move they would have to make if they expect him to continue to contribute. After signing a one-year deal last offseason, Breshad Perriman is set to once again be a free agent, as is the ageless wonder Frank Gore, who will no doubt go wherever Adam Gase gets hired. Such as with many teams this offseason, the biggest question is around the quarterback position and whether Sam Darnold will be the starter come September 2021.

Free Agency and the Draft

With over $60M in cap space this offseason and a new coaching staff to boot, I would expect new head coach Robert Saleh to start his rebuild with the defense, with a lot of work to do after Jamal Adams departed last season. More importantly (to fantasy players anyway) is what might be done on the offensive side of the ball. I’m sure after a year that saw them ranked as the 29th best offensive line (per PFF), one focus will be to protect whoever is throwing the ball in 2021. Along with that, similarly to the Dolphins, (other than Denzel Mims) the Jets do not have an abundance of young talent in their wide receiver room and could be competitors for the top free agents this offseason.

The draft is where things get really fun for the Jets. They own the second overall pick as well as the 23rd overall pick this year, and could very well be in play for the second quarterback off the board at number two. The expectation is Trevor Lawrence goes number one overall to the Jaguars, with Zach Wilson and Justin Fields being in play for the Jets at two. They could also choose to get an elite prospect at another position while building around Sam Darnold. Maybe Saleh wants a stud at defensive back, someone to pair with Mekhi Becton along the offensive line, or even the top wide receiver available. All that being said, it’s equally likely that the Jets could package their first round picks, along with other assets, to make a move for Deshaun Watson, which is rumored to be Watson’s most likely destination. I am of the firm belief that Sam Darnold is better than Adam Gase showed us, but only time will tell if the Jets new coaching staff feels the same way.

That’s it! Be sure to follow Michael on Twitter, and stay tuned to our site for upcoming divisional offseason previews.