As we wrap our heads around a potential landmark year in offseason moves, The Undroppables will be breaking down each division team by team, highlighting the key players at each skill position for their offense, and what could change for them in 2021.
Thus far, we’ve broken down the NFC East and AFC East. Now, Andrew Mackens takes a look at the AFC South.
Tennessee Titans
2020 Fantasy Results
- QB: Ryan Tannehill, QB7 (21.5 PPG)
- RB: Derrick Henry, RB2 (20.2 PPG)
- WR: A.J. Brown, WR12 (14.8 PPG)
- TE: Jonnu Smith, TE10 (8 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
- QB: Ryan Tannehill
- RB: Derrick Henry
- WR: A.J. Brown
- TE: Jonnu Smith
Potential Offseason Changes
The Titans doubled down on their offensive philosophy after an AFC Championship game appearance in 2019, locking up Ryan Tannehill as their franchise QB and back-to-back rushing leader Derrick Henry as their workhorse. As part of this, the team did not pick up Corey Davis’ fifth-year option, and of course Davis thrived as the #2 receiving option on the team. Tight End Jonnu Smith is a multi-faceted contributor for the Titans and should be a cheap player to re-sign along with the others in the position group, so I expect Davis to be the most notable cap casualty.
On the defensive side, the Titans continued to struggle with their pass rush despite signing veteran Jadeveon Clowney to a one-year deal last season. I can’t imagine they bring Clowney back, so that leaves the Edge as a major position of need in the NFL Draft.
Free Agency and the Draft
I am most interested in what the Titans do with their Wide Receiver room. Adam Humphries is a past addition that has yet to fulfill his potential when the Titans went out of their way to sign him. He’s had his moments over the past two seasons, but so has Kalif Raymond. With A.J. Brown getting dual knee surgery this offseason, does the team bring someone in through free agency to take some of the load off, or do they let Brown be the alpha receiver he is and absolutely dominate target share?
Given their run-first offense, I could easily see the latter happening and Head Coach Mike Vrabel wanting to focus on defense in the draft. Daniel Jeremiah has the Titans drafting Edge Rusher Jaelan Phillips in his latest mock draft, a player whom Jeremiah has ranked as a top-20 player in the class. After the first round, the Titans could still draft a high-upside receiver (in a stacked WR class no less) later on to bolster the position.
Indianapolis Colts
2020 Fantasy Results
- QB: Philip Rivers, QB20 (15 PPG)
- RB: Jonathan Taylor, RB6 (15.7 PPG)
- WR: T.Y. Hilton, WR40 (9.1 PPG)
- TE: Trey Burton, TE25 (5.3 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
- QB: Jacoby Brissett
- RB: Jonathan Taylor
- WR: T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr.
- TE: Trey Burton
Potential Offseason Changes
Philip Rivers is riding off into the sunset, Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, the Colts have the second-most available cap space, and no one knows what they’re doing at QB. Well, not fully anyway. The football cognoscenti believes the Colts will reunite Eagles QB Carson Wentz with their Head Coach Frank Reich, but they certainly aren’t willing to overpay to try and “fix” Wentz.
Report: The #Colts have offered "two 2nd-round draft picks" for #Eagles QB Carson Wentz, per @JawsCEOQB via @JeffSkversky
That is the best offer the #Eagles have received – No first round pick offer for Wentz.pic.twitter.com/9ZGuiXI1nH
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) February 13, 2021
Despite the discrepancies in valuation, the Eagles might need to take what they can get and deal Wentz to Indy before they start paying major money on his contract.
With the rest of the Colts, it’s more about what won’t change from last year than what will. I figure GM Chris Ballard will want to keep the defensive unit together, re-signing defensive playmakers such as Justin Houston, Denico Autry, and Malik Hooker. The team is also likely to sign veteran Wide Receiver T.Y. Hilton to a team-friendly deal, leaving question marks around whether they bring back Running Back Marlon Mack or Tight Ends Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox. All three could be re-signed, and all three could be cut.
Free Agency and the Draft
Whoever plays QB for the Colts in 2021, they could use another weapon down the middle of the field to round out an offense featuring promising sophomore talents like Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. along with Nyheim Hines as a complementary piece and Hilton as a reliable veteran on the downswing of his career. Hunter Henry feels like a perfect fit for this scenario, as the Tight End position felt like a mess in 2020. There have been whispers of Eagles Tight End Zach Ertz becoming part of the Wentz-to-Indy deal, but only time will tell there. Regardless of whether Tight End is addressed, continuing to get younger at Wide Receiver (and prioritizing it) through the draft is also in the cards.
Given Anthony Castonzo’s retirement, there have been talks of moving Quenton Nelson or even Braden Smith to Left Tackle. With the cap space the Colts have, they could instead sign a veteran like Trent Williams or Russell Okung if either happen to be available. Regardless of the route they take, the Colts will want to reload assets along the offensive line through the draft to bring in new, young talent and maintain their philosophy of running the ball and playing good defense.
Houston Texans
2020 Fantasy Results
- QB: Deshaun Watson, QB5 (23.1 PPG)
- RB: David Johnson, RB19 (13.6 PPG)
- WR: Brandin Cooks, WR15 (12.8 PPG)
- TE: Darren Fells, TE26 (4.1 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
- QB: Deshaun Watson (?)
- RB: David Johnson
- WR: Brandin Cooks
- TE: Jordan Akins
Potential Offseason Changes
Everyone knows the Texans are a mess. DeAndre Hopkins was traded last year, J.J. Watt was recently released, and we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop regarding a Deshaun Watson trade. As it currently stands, the Texans have zero interest in trading him, and Watson may not have any interest in wasting his prime years in Houston. For a full breakdown of the potential chicken scenario at play, click here.
It’s hard for me to envision an NFL season without Deshaun Watson, so I’m merely wishcasting that he’s either traded to a team of his liking so the Texans can build back their draft capital, or he takes the money and plays under less-than-favorable circumstances. If there’s any one thing the Texans front office can do to convince Watson to stay and play, it’s re-signing one of his favorite targets from last year, Will Fuller.
Free Agency and the Draft
With Watt on the move, re-signing Fuller should prove easy, but I’ll be curious to learn if they can afford any additional veterans to pair with Laremy Tunsil along the offensive line. Joe Thuney and Alex Mack are toward the top of the free agent list, but the team may have to seek cheaper options, as they are middle of the pack with respect to cap space.
The Texans don’t exactly have top draft capital either, so it will be up to new General Manager Nick Caserio to work his Foxborough magic and rebuild the defense with value picks if this team ever wants to make another playoff push with Watson at the helm.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 Fantasy Results
- QB: Gardner Minshew II, QB26 (17.8 PPG)
- RB: James Robinson, RB7 (16.1 PPG)
- WR: Laviska Shenault, WR47 (9.2 PPG)
- TE: Tyler Eifert, TE28 (4.3 PPG)
Projected Starters for 2021
- QB: Trevor Lawrence
- RB: James Robinson
- WR: D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault
- TE: Josh Oliver (?)
Potential Offseason Changes
Urban Meyer has looked at this from every angle, folks. This is THE opportunity he’s coming to the NFL for, and that means they have a great opportunity to rebuild from the ground up. The Jaguars are beyond likely to draft the consensus #1 QB Trevor Lawrence with the #1 overall pick in the draft, and they have the most cap space available to them in the league for this season.
Expect them to bolster the offensive line and potentially acquire more weapons for Lawrence to hit the ground running with. Hunter Henry may even be a better fit at Tight End here that with the Colts. Any cap casualties in Jacksonville will not have been worth keeping on the team for any reason other than being good locker room guys, and Meyer is coming in to change the culture anyway, so we may see the end of Chris Conley’s and Keelan Cole’s time in Jacksonville.
Free Agency and the Draft
As mentioned, the Jaguars can pretty much do whatever they want in free agency, and two first round picks (#1 and #25) will help them bring in a solid draft class. I’m not sure Allen Robinson will want to head back to Jacksonville to join a room filled with D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault, but there’s a chance that if they don’t go for a Tight End, the Jaguars sign a cheaper option at Wide Receiver like Curtis Samuel (Ohio State connection with Urban Meyer) or draft another high-upside rookie in the draft.
I’ve said this on The Undrafted podcast before, and I’ll note it again here: I am not worried about James Robinson’s role being completely stolen from him in 2021, simply because I believe the Jaguars have so many other holes on the team to address before running back.
The Jaguars defense has been a shell of its 2018 self, so they’ll do whatever they can to rebuild it over the next couple year as Lawrence matures and the offense gels. It will be more important for them to draft and develop on defense now as opposed to overpay for veteran free agents.
That’s it! Be sure to follow Andrew on Twitter, and stay tuned to our site for upcoming divisional offseason previews.
