Amari Rodgers has one of the more interesting injury profiles that I have looked at in quite some time. I will provide a brief breakdown of his injury history and what implications this could have on his fantasy production long term.
Injury History
- Right ACL tear on March 25th, 2019
- Rodgers returned to play on September 7th, 2019
- Return to play timeline: <22 weeks (5 months) post ACLR (For the record, that’s insane!)
ACL Background
ACL rehabs can take anywhere from 10-12+ months to recover from which is typically why when a player suffers this injury it is usually a season-ender. The rehab timeline is criteria based but there is also a time-based component to it too so the graft can heal.
I’m sure Rodgers was looked over carefully and had to check many boxes before he was cleared to return. However, this is a testament to how unique he is. He has to have really great tissue quality to heal up like that so soon after surgery.
Pre vs. Post-Injury
One of the things I was most interested in while looking at Rodger’s was how he most pre-injury and post-injury. Here’s a clip of Rodgers pre-injury breaking down a DB with his footwork and a quick cut – pushing of that right leg.
Pre-ACL Tear Videos (3)
Here is another example.
I liked this clip of Rodgers before his injury because he showed great burst. Rodgers sells his route then quickly accelerating upfield. This is the reason fantasy gamers would be excited about him.
Post ACL Tear Videos (4)
When I examined Rodgers after his ACL repair, I saw similar movement patterns. Here’s a clip from 2019. He looks comfortable cutting, pushing off the right leg without hesitation.
This play was interesting. This is Rodgers’s first play back from injury in 2019. Essentially it is the worst-case scenario for him. A defender comes in and adds a valgus load to his right knee (common mechanism of injury for ACL injury/re-tear). He is unfazed and bounces right back up.
Something that did stand out to me, is Rodgers right knee from the senior bowl last month (video from @FF_Astronauts) A lot of valgus load on that right knee post-injury (I know I know I’m the valgus doesn’t matter guy) but this is different post-injury vs. pre-injury
Knee Angle (Valgus)
It’s been knit-picky with a few select plays but you can see the different knee valgus angles pre-injury (yellow) vs. post-injury (red). Something to keep our eye on in the future. The lower the number depicted the more valgus stress to the knee. Valgus loads to the knee are a common mechanism of injury for an ACL tear.
ACL Re-Injury Rates
Rate of re-injury following ACLR varies depending on the demographic/time period you’re looking at but I’ve seen something around 18-20% rather consistently, with higher rates 9 months-2 years post-operation.
An interesting case report (lower research evidence) found there was NOT an association between re-injury rates and return to play times in NFL players – something that would bode well for Rodgers given his speedy timeline.
Summary
Risk factors for re-injury one of which is valgus (inward) knee loading and Rodgers appears to have some of that. This would be something to keep an eye on in the future but I’m not fading him because of it.
If you wish to see the link to the original Twitter thread click HERE.
For a more in-depth fantasy football-driven breakdown of Amari Rodgers and other rookie prospects, make sure you check out The Undroppables 2021 Rookie Draft Guide.
