The Baltimore Ravens were one of the bigger surprises of 2019. Many had high hopes for sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson, but no one predicted him to be the leagues’ best quarterback and MVP. The Ravens had the best regular season in the league at 14-2. Despite a reality check in the playoffs when they were upset by the Tennessee Titans, the Ravens could not have asked for a better year.
Lamar’s Invincible 2019 Season
Lamar Jackson was by far the most efficient quarterback last season. He only had 401 passing attempts, but had the most touchdown passes. His 36 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions translates to a remarkable 6:1 TD/INT ratio. One would assume that Jackson’s impressive 66.1% passing percentage would reflect that of a cautious quarterback. This was not the case. In fact, his 7.8 yards per attempt put him in the league’s top ten. Not bad for a player many predicted would end up being a wide receiver.
As good as Jackson was as a passer, he really separated himself from the rest of the pack with his rushing ability. In only 15 games, Jackson had 1,206 yards, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and leading the league in quarterback rushing touchdowns with seven. To put things into perspective, Jackson’s 1,206 yards would have made him the sixth-best running back in 2019. More importantly, he was able to shatter Michael Vick’s quarterback rushing record of 1,039 yards.
In fantasy, Jackson easily had the most points out of anyone. No matter which site or format, he was around 60-70 points ahead of second place Christian McCaffrey. Anything is possible in the NFL, but to assume that Jackson will equal or improve upon his 2019 performance would be naively optimistic. Passer rating is calculated using a player’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Jackson’s 113.3 passer rating in 2019 is the 11th best of all time.
Facing Inevitable Regression
One thing’s for certain: if the Ravens’ defense is as good as it was in 2019, then Jackson’s volume will most likely not increase. In their two regular season losses, Jackson had 43 and 34 passing attempts. He averaged only 21.6 attempts in his 14 wins. Jackson threw 59 times in their only playoff game. In total, Jackson averaged 45.3 attempts when his team lost. It’s also important to note that he threw 33 touchdowns and three interceptions when Baltimore won. When they lost, he threw three touchdowns and three interceptions. Big difference.
If the Ravens get rattled, so does Jackson. If Baltimore’s defense doesn’t play as well as they did in 2019, then more pressure will be placed on Jackson’s shoulders. With that pressure comes inefficiency and mistakes. He might be a great quarterback, but unlike Patrick Mahomes, Jackson hasn’t proven he has the ability to overcome adversity. In fact, Baltimore never had to rally from any second half deficit to win. In all three of their losses, Baltimore was trailing at half time.
If Baltimore doesn’t get off to a hot start and trails, Jackson’s passing volume will increase, which might not be a good thing. It would be surprising if Jackson could replicate his efficiency level coming from behind. Even though Jackson is the best rushing quarterback of all time, he averaged only 56 rushing yards in regular season losses, compared to averaging 84 rushing yards when they won. One would also have to assume that opposing teams will be more prepared for Jackson in 2020.
Will Mark Andrews Assert Himself as the TE3?
Oftentimes, a player will generate massive hype that will then cool down later. Some might even start off slow, then gain momentum as the season is about to start. Mark Andrews, however, has received praise by almost everyone since the beginning of the offseason, without any signs of said hype waning.
According to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, Andrews is being viewed as the league’s TE3, behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Kelce has led the league in tight end fantasy scoring for three consecutive seasons. Kittle is entering 2020 after establishing himself as the league’s second-highest scoring tight end. Andrews was fifth in 2019 as a sophomore. This was a giant leap from his rookie season in which he was 17th.
Almost everyone believes Andrews will ascend even further in 2020. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Andrews is being drafted in the middle of the fourth round in redraft. This is about five spots ahead of Zach Ertz and a full round ahead of Darren Waller, both of which finished ahead of Andrews last year along with Kelce and Kittle.
Usurping Ertz and Waller to be TE3 for Andrews isn’t out of the equation. Based on FantasyPros 2019 fantasy points, Andrews was only eight points behind Ertz and 14 behind Waller, with Waller playing an extra game. With Hayden Hurst out of the picture an no direct replacement, it seems that Mark Andrews is destined to live up to his offseason expectations.
TE3, But Fewer Fantasy Points?
It’s very possible that Mark Andrews climbs up the tight end ranks and finishes in the top three with fewer fantasy points than he did last year. But how?
Baltimore’s offense in 2019 was atypical. There were no major wide receivers of consequence. Mark Andrews was Lamar Jackson’s most targeted receiver in 2019 with 98 targets. Rookie Marquise Brown was a distant second with 71 and Willie Snead was further back with 46. To put this into perspective, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins had more targets than Andrews and Brown combined. Many talk about the Seattle Seahawks’ run-first approach, but Baltimore ran the most run plays in 2019. That’s why the Baltimore tight end core ranked last in Team Pass Plays out of the 42 tight ends who caught 20 or more passes in 2019.
Many have Andrews as being the TE3 in 2020, but according to most statistics gathered from the 2019 season, he simply isn’t there yet. He was only seventh among tight ends in targets per game with 6.5 and was 11th in receptions per game with 4.3. Andrews also lacks the Yards After Catch (YAC) appeal. He was ranked 30th out of 42, only gaining on average 2.6 yards after the catch. This might have something to do with his league-leading 1.33 Deep Targets per game, but his lack of YAC is concerning.
Volume >>> Touchdown Dependency
What really helped Andrews achieve 13.8 fantasy points per game (T-5th) were his touchdowns. He had 10, which led the league. That was four more than Kelce, Ertz, and Hooper; five more than Kittle and Henry; seven more than Waller, Engram, and Higbee. Touchdowns aren’t reliable stats anyone can predict or expect to replicate. Targets and receptions are more consistent indicators – two indicators from 2019 that do not favor Andrew’s rise in 2020.
It would be a large leap of faith for him to become what most expect. He could still end up as the TE3 due to the parity at the position, but in the process he might not return value.
More Means Less
With most effective systems, there is a saying “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Ravens will continue to employ a similar run/pass distribution as long as game script coincides with their plan. Even if it doesn’t, Jackson will most likely be less efficient and effective as mentioned previously. For argument’s sake, let’s say that Jackson will be forced to throw a bit more in 2020. Projecting him for 450 attempts seems fair. That’s about three more per game.
When Jackson had to throw the ball more during the three games Baltimore was behind, he didn’t target Andrews significantly more than he did when they were winning. In fact, Andrews averaged 7.3 targets in losses compared to 6.4 in wins. Marquise Brown, however, saw a huge difference. He averaged 5 during wins but averaged 9 when Baltimore was playing from behind. This may be a small sample size of three games, but it does show that when Jackson is behind, he tends to look to his wide receivers more.
Sum Greater Than Its Parts
Speaking of wide receivers, Baltimore has sneakily been drafting them heavily in the past two rookie drafts. Last year, it was Brown and Miles Boykin, a player who did very little but was still a third round pick who brings size and freak athleticism to the table. In 2020, they drafted a couple of later targets, Devin Duvernay and James Proche. Duvernay is interesting because he was used mostly in the slot at Texas, but comes with 4.39 speed. Proche is a typical slot receiver who was a steal in the sixth round. He had 301 college receptions, which is the 16th most of all time. They still have Willie Snead, the forgotten man, who was clearly the team’s third option in 2019. He had 46 receptions and five touchdowns.
Predicting who will emerge as the two “other wide receivers” next to Brown is not clear. One would assume that it would be Boykin playing outside with Snead in the slot,but it wouldn’t be surprising if Duvernay or even Proche end up starting by mid-season. In any case, none of them are worth drafting in redraft, but all of them are worthy dynasty stashes with Snead being the “least desirable” at 27 years old. As a group, however, look at them as a greater sum than its parts.
Hooray For Hollywood?
The @Ravens are going Hollywood!
Lamar Jackson to Marquise Brown for the 47-yard TD! #BALvsMIA
📺: CBS
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports appWatch on mobile: https://t.co/PoZiStO3mL pic.twitter.com/xIB7q8m4XR
— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2019
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is probably the most intriguing and undervalued receiver on the Ravens this season. He’s currently WR32 in PPR, which isn’t incredible value, but it would not be surprising if he ends up a top-24 receiver. If the extra weight he’s put on hasn’t affected his speed greatly, then Brown could be a good buy. He should be the number one target on the team on passing downs, which in itself means he will be the receiver to own in Baltimore.
Ingram Is Still The Running Back to Draft
As for running backs, Mark Ingram continues to be the best play and is currently viewed as the RB23. Last year, he was fantasy RB11 in PPR scoring. Many are enamored by second-round rookie J.K. Dobbins, but don’t think for a second that Ingram is no longer the guy. If Ingram gets hurt, don’t sleep on Gus Edwards as the next man up initially. He’s done nothing in the past to prove he isn’t capable of being the main two-down back. It will be interesting to see how Justice Hill is utilized if at all. The former third-round athletic phenom didn’t set the world on fire in 2019, but to be fair he was only used sporadically.
Predicting Target Distribution Breakdown
Last year, Lamar Jackson had 401 out of a teams’ 440 total pass attempts; that target distribution broke down like this:
- Mark Andrews: 98
- Marquise Brown: 71
- Willie Snead: 46
- Nick Boyle: 43
- Hayden Hurst: 39
- Seth Roberts: 35
- Mark Ingram: 29
- Miles Boykin: 22
- Justice Hill: 15
- Patrick Ricard: 11
- Others: 15
Due to more negative game script, we’ll give the team a total of 500 attempts, with Jackson getting 450 as promised. This is what the target distribution should look like:
- Marquise Brown: 115 targets, 63, receptions, 934 yards, 7 TDs
- Mark Andrews: 110 targets, 76 receptions, 782 yards, 6 TDs
- Willie Snead: 55 targets, 39 receptions, 424 yards, 2 TDs
- Nick Boyle: 50 targets, 36 receptions, 315 yards, 3 TDs
- Miles Boykin: 45 targets, 26 receptions, 346 yards, 3 TDs
- Mark Ingram: 35 targets, 27 receptions, 265 yards, 3 TDs
- Devin Duvernay: 35 targets, 21 receptions, 279 yards, 3 TDs
- Other RB targets: 35 targets, 25 receptions, 221 yards, 1 TDs
- Other: 20 targets, 11 receptions, 136 yards, 0 TDs
Marquise Brown will lead in every category and progress nicely as a sophomore “big play” receiver. He still won’t eclipse 1000 yards however due to volume that is largely spread out. Andrews will take a small step back. With Hurst gone and more eligible decent options at wide receiver, he’ll be less of a slot presence and used more often as a traditional tight end. Snead will begin the year as the main slot receiver, but as time goes on, he’ll start to lose snaps to Duvernay. Boykin takes a nominal step in year two, but does not fully exert himself.
Apart from Brown and Andrews, all of the other receivers get action, but cannibalize each other in terms of fantasy. Ingram is still the main back, but Dobbins starts getting more action near the end of the season, alluding to the possibility that he might be the main focus in 2021. Edwards and Hill remain just change-of-pace, even if Edwards continues to perform adequately and Hill improves on his efficiency.
Conclusion
Fading two of the most revered players on one of the most exciting teams seems contrarian, but do not be fooled into thinking that the Ravens will dominate like they did in 2019. They’ll be good, but won’t run away with the division.
Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews exceeded their value in 2019 due to supreme efficiency. Therefore, fade Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews even if the rest of the fantasy football community is saying the opposite. Marquise Brown has upside potential and should see the biggest uptick in volume. However, the most intriguing player to have on your team for 2019 might be 30-year old Mark Ingram. This might be his last hurrah as both a starter and as a Raven. Ageism is real, even in redraft. In my opinion Ingram is a screaming value that could help you quietly win your leagues.
