Beer Money Bets | Creating a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 5

Last week was rough, I went 0/2 after just playing the morning slate and the afternoon slate in Classic lineup contests. It was made even more difficult by the delay in the Patriots and Chiefs game that was a main part of my process last week. Although frustrating, this sudden change reinforces exactly why a process is better than picks. I was able to revisit my lineup from last week, reapply the process, and come back with a brand new lineup without much more effort. I am excited by the flexibility of my process and looking forward to seeing it in action this week.

Reviewing the Process(Last Week’s Process):

1. With the Chiefs out of the slate, the Rams and the Bills ended up having the highest implied team totals for the week. This ended being half right as the Bills scored the most points this week, but the Raiders scored more points than the Rams. 
2. Selecting a RB, 2 WR, and FLEX from these games worked to some success but I think I ended up selecting the wrong players. For RB I chose Henderson, who was the worst of the RB options from the Rams and Bills. Singletary and Malcom Brown ended up outscoring Henderson and both would have been better options. Diggs and Beasley worked out very well as WR, but Woods disappointed at the Flex. Overall, the Rams offense didn’t play like I had projected and this really ruined the entry this week. 
3. Filling out my roster was also hit or miss. I missed massively on QB. I tried to go with the Rams’s high implied total and save some salary and get Goff. Instead, Derek Carr turned out to be the budget QB of this slate. I filled the rest of the roster with Raiders players and put Jacobs at RB, Renfrow at WR, and Waller at TE. They all scored really well on projected points per $100 and Renfrow and Waller hit, while Jacobs was a massive miss for his salary cost. 
4. I threw my $2,600 left at the Giants defense and hoped for the best and it worked out for 5 points. 

Next week I will come back to this process because I think it needs another try with 3 games instead of 2. One immediate takeaway from last week’s lineup is to not trust the Vegas lines and implied totals as gospel and find other ways to help safeguard against underperforming and over performing teams. 

I think I am really close to finishing the large slate Classic contest process so I am going to revise it this week. I have been disappointed with my WR selection so far and so that’s the only adjustment I am making. 

New Revised Process for Large Slate Classic Double Up:

1. Look at implied totals, identify the teams with the highest totals and select players from those teams. How many teams depends on the number of teams on the slate, but I am going to try and keep it to only the top 25% to 30%. 
2. Sort players from these teams by projected points per $100. Use this as a lens to look for value with a focus on running backs that will benefit from a positive game script. Multiply projected points per $100 by WOPR to create a new value. WOPR stands for Weighted Opportunity Rating and is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Select Wide Receivers and Tight Ends based on high values for this new variable. Select Quarterback based on a player that scores highly in projected points per $100 salary. Do not be afraid to go for high priced and “chalky” players. 
3. To solidify the last few players in my lineup, look for players that could come at a discount. This includes players that benefit from in-week injuries as well as pass catchers on teams that are heavy underdogs, with a heavy focus on pass-catching running backs. 
4. Choose a DST that is going against a team with a low implied total and preferably at home. Do not spend a lot of salary on the DST.

The Process in Action:

1. The teams with the highest implied team totals of the 16 teams playing are KC, BAL, HOU, ATL, and ARI.
2. Sorted players from these 5 teams by projected points per $100. I also created a new variable by multiplying projected points per $100 by WOPR. I used this WOPR adjusted projected points per $100 to select the top 3 players for this new value; Marquise Brown, Tyreek Hill, and DeAndre Hopkins. After spending a lot of salary on these 3 wide receivers, I elected to not spend up on Kelce since he was 4th on the list. Instead, I selected CEH and Todd Gurley based on their high projected points per $100. For the Flex position, Brandin Cooks scored extremely well in my new variable. At only $4100, I am going against my better judgement, trusting my process, and forgetting the goose egg he had last week and playing him. Finally, I selected Matt Ryan as my QB. At his price, Ryan looks like a steal and scores the highest of all the QBs in projected points per $100 salary. 
3.  I was able to fill the rest of my lineup from the teams with the highest implied team totals so the only position I have to look for a discount on is TE. Logan Thomas continues to be a steal for his projected points. Though he hasn’t performed up to what his opportunity has been, at $3,500 he is still a bargain. With Kyle Allen taking over at QB, I am hoping to see him target Thomas in a similar fashion as he did with Greg Olsen in Carolina.
4. The budget DST this week seems to be the Texans. The Jaguars have a fairly low implied total and the Texans DST is only $2,600

The Lineup:

There is probably a way to make a lineup with more projected points but that is not my goal. I am only looking to cash, not come in first overall, and this lineup is a nice mix of safe players with high floors and some solid upside. 

Hopefully this addition to the process solves the issue with wide receivers I’ve been having and gets this process closer to being set every week without correction. Good luck this week and if you have any questions, you can find me on twitter @bpofsu. Also for all of your DFS needs, check out Paulie’s DFS Sleepers and Michael Reedy’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers here at the Undroppables.