From AFC East afterthought to division favorites, it has been a wild ride for the Buffalo Bills from 2019 offseason to 2020 offseason. The Bills have made some big moves to continue their competitive push, but how will it all shake out for fantasy football managers in 2020 and beyond?
Offense: An Overview
The Bills have made some big moves on the offensive side of the ball this offseason. The new additions brought in include Daryl Williams, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Hodgins, and of course Stefon Diggs. The team also extended head coach Sean McDermott to a multi-year deal, ensuring his vision for this team continues for the foreseeable future.
Quarterback
Josh Allen
Allen stepped up big for his team in 2020, leading them to the playoffs in his second year. He also finished as the QB7 in fantasy, with a large portion of production coming from his legs. Allen put up 510 rushing yards and 9 TDs. This accounted for 105 of his 290 fantasy points in 2019. This aspect of his game keeps him in the conversation for QB1 status. In fact, he put up 8 QB1 weeks in 2019, which was among the league leaders.
The real question becomes, will the additions of Zack Moss and Stefon Diggs cause the Bills to ask their QB to take fewer risks on the ground?
The additions to the receiver group will bring those rushing totals down a bit, but the rushing possibility leaves him as a QB9-QB12 option with upside for me. The biggest step Allen must take is improving upon his horrid completion percentage. In 2018, among starting QBs, he finished as the 33rd QB in completion % (behind Josh Rosen), and in 2019 he finished 32nd. This must improve for him to be taken seriously as an NFL QB long term. Continuing to perform poorly there could lead to a shorter career.
This is something to keep in mind when valuing Allen in dynasty. If you believe he will overcome this hurdle, then now would be the time to invest as his price will only go higher. Yet if you have your doubts, as I do, then I am avoiding him for safer options or trading him to get peak value. In redraft, Allen is a fair value option, currently going around Rodgers, Ryan, and Brees in the 7th/8th round. Again, a bit high for my liking, but the rushing upside may make the value that much sweeter.
Jake Fromm
Honestly, the 2020 5th round pick is likely to be nothing more than a perennial backup at best in the NFL. His glory days are likely left back in Athens, Georgia where he was able to fend off 5-star recruit after 5-star recruit. For fantasy leagues, the only thing Fromm is good for is a taxi spot at best within the dynasty format. Even then, it’s solely in case of injury or opportunity elsewhere somewhere down the line.
Running Back
Devin Singletary
There is currently a divide between Moss believers and Singletary truthers, yet I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Singletary burst on to the scene in 2019, putting up two top-24 weeks with extremely limited touches. Then an injury hampered the prospect for a few weeks. Upon his return though, he took over snaps in the Bills backfield from Week 8 on. Over the course of the season, Singletary finished in the top 24 on 7 occasions within his 12 games played.
A player like that isn’t going to disappear even if Moss ends up living up to his own potential. Singletary’s consistency in the pass game will keep him relevant on the Bills, even if Moss eventually wins the job. I think this backfield will be a solid option to have as depth pieces, but neither should be your RB1 or RB2 within your roster. In redraft, Singletary offers up great RB3/Flex upside early and could be a solid trade chip after a big week or two. In dynasty I believe Singletary remains a solid flex play on both rebuilding and contending teams. He may be a good player to inquire about as his value is hard to place right now.
Zack Moss
With one of the easiest running back schedules of 2020, I think it’s well within the possibilities that the Bills produce two top 30 RBs. The 2020 3rd round pick from Utah could have a great opportunity to serve in the Frank Gore role we saw last year. This would get him on the field for at least 30% of snaps early. I also believe Moss being a heavier/stronger back will allow him to see more of the red zone work and maintain fantasy relevancy even with limited touches.
New Bills RB Zack Moss was elite at making defenders miss in 2019 pic.twitter.com/JFFaGWs3Dp
— PFF (@PFF) April 30, 2020
Moss is a slippery back, as is his counterpart, Singletary. The two will likely serve as a one-two punch in Buffalo, and I do not anticipate a complete takeover for either side. Both Moss and Singletary can serve as a threat through the air or the ground as well. Moss being a dual threat saw great efficiency across the board when given the ball.
Zack Moss among college running backs in 2019 (@PFF)
407 yards after the catch – 7th
14.5 yards after the catch per rec – 2nd
2.3 yards per route run – 9th
170 rec yards after contact – 7th
15 missed tackles forced on recs – 7th
9 explosive rec plays – 7th— Jesse Reeves (@JesseReevesFF) July 6, 2020
As stated with Singletary, I believe Moss holds great value as an RB3/Flex option in both redraft and dynasty. If either running back is able to win the job outright, or an injury happens, then the healthy back could be a league-winner for many.
T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon isn’t likely to see much if any time on the field barring injury. There’s no value in redraft and I think it’s safe to leave him off of your dynasty rosters as well. Even in the case of an injury, I think a majority of touches will remain solely with the healthy back of the two above.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs
Diggs finally has his opportunity to be the undisputed #1 option on his team. This is a position I truly believe he can thrive in, but ADP is typically the reasoning he hasn’t landed on many of my teams. Diggs seems to getting picked around 4.09 with other options around him being Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, and D.J. Chark. I believe the upside for all of those players is greater than what you will get from Diggs.
Diggs is one of, if not the best route runner in the NFL. His separation and big play ability is hard to top, but he isn’t always seen as a red zone weapon. Diggs is similar to Tyreek Hill, with high boom weeks but also low floor weeks. A lot of Diggs’ top-end scoring ability will depend on the accuracy of his QB. If Allen improves in his accuracy, then Diggs could get back into the top 15 conversation once more.
At his current ADP, I’ve been passing on Diggs in many drafts. In dynasty formats, I wouldn’t be trading him away; his value feels like it’s at a middle-ground at this time. If the board falls right in redraft I won’t hesitate grabbing him, but he needs to drop into the 5th round with players such as Lockett, Woods, and similar pass catchers.
John Brown
Brown is one of the better route runners in the NFL, but not quite as good as his new teammate. That being said, John Brown is heavily undervalued as a veteran wide receiver. Brown finished as the WR20 in PPR leagues in 2019. Though some will fear Diggs may eat into his share, one could argue Diggs’ presence frees Brown up for more opportunities. Brown was taking the WR1 focus in Buffalo and still producing. Now he’ll be getting the #2 treatment, allowing for more separation and possibly more big plays as well.
Stefon Diggs and John Brown scored in the top-15 in both success rate vs. man AND press coverage last year in #ReceptionPerception. The Bills are just one of two teams with a duo of WRs who did this.
Get full access to 2019 RP data in the UDK here: https://t.co/qRCH0apWrm pic.twitter.com/9AWBjsL7QY
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 24, 2020
If I’m contending in a dynasty league, I am investing in Brown on the cheap (you can probably get him for a 3rd round rookie pick). In redraft, Brown is a late-round guy that could win you some weeks in PPR formats. Don’t sleep on this veteran wide receiver.
Cole Beasley
Beasley is a better NFL player than he is a fantasy option. In 2019, he was able to finish around the WR34 which was a solid flex option at times. Yet in 2020, the only format in which Beasley may be a useful player to roster would be deeper redraft leagues that have full PPR scoring. Even then, with the addition of Stefon Diggs and the strengths of John Brown, I find it hard for Beasley to continue to be a flex option. I would avoid him being on your roster in any format, as he’s the most likely to be hurt by new additions. That production gets even worse if younger players like Dawson Knox and Duke Williams find more snaps.
Gabriel Davis
The 4th round draft selection out of UCF is solely a long term dynasty investment, preferably in a taxi spot. He will hold no value in redraft formats. The best he could likely muster up is the #4 WR spot on his own team. At UCF, Davis had a decent sophomore season with 815 yards and 7 TDs. In his junior year he took the next step putting up a whopping 1,241 yards and 12 TDs. Davis is a big-bodied receiver, unlike the 3 guys in front of him, leaving some opportunity in certain packages.
Isaiah Hodgins
Similar to Davis, Hodgins was a day 3 pick in the 2020 NFL draft and likely will not see meaningful snaps in the 2020 (or 2021) season. His sole consideration is for taxi spots within dynasty formats.
Tight End
Dawson Knox
The only tight end on the Bills roster with any fantasy value is Knox, who showed flashes in 2019 when given the opportunity. That being said, Dawson is a raw prospect who saw the field inconsistently. By looks and metrics, Knox has the size, speed, and hands to succeed at the NFL level.
The only part of his metrics that don’t stand out as above average is his college dominator. Yet with more time to develop in Buffalo’s system, I believe Knox is a year or two away from being a breakout candidate. For 2020, you can avoid him in redraft, though he could possibly be a streaming option later in the year. In dynasty he is a great low-value investment with the intangibles to be a solid piece in a few years.
Final Thoughts
The Buffalo Bills offense has a handful of players going later in drafts that can be very solid redraft options. The problem is that it’s difficult to tell who will be the best option to roster. On the dynasty side of things, I am only interested in the higher upside players with Moss & Diggs being the only locks that I would love to own. Allen could join those two if he’s able to show us better results through the air of course. If you believe in his talent, then get him sooner than later!
For more quality Undroppables content, check out our AFC East offseason breakdowns of the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins.
