Every NFL season there are a number of players that gain massive hype and shoot up Fantasy Football draft boards, only to disappoint because their expectations were too high. Conversely, there’s a similar group of players who get pushed down in fantasy drafts and consequently become post-hype sleepers and late-round steals. My goal of this series is to look past the popular sentiment, share some statistics, and offer a contrarian opinion for you to consider before drafting a player too early or writing someone off too soon before your Fantasy Football drafts.
The Subject: Courtland Sutton – WR, Denver Broncos
The Broncos’ top wide receiver has gifted us with highlights in both his rookie and sophomore seasons at the professional level, proving he has the talent to become an Alpha-level performer. His 6′ 4″, 216 lb frame is further evidence he fits the mold of receivers that can go up and grab 50-50 balls over opposing defenders and reel in deep sideline catches with ease. Said another way, Sutton has the “IT-factor,” and in 2020 he’ll be entering the fabled “Third-year breakout” stage of his NFL career. But, with the way things are currently set up, can Sutton actualize the high expectations that are set for him? Here I will argue, much to the disappointment of Broncos fans and Sutton-truthers everywhere, that 2020 is not Sutton’s year to achieve Alpha status.
Courtland Sutton was the WR19 in PPR scoring in 2019, with 72 receptions, 1,112 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He totaled 222.42 fantasy points.
Sutton surprisingly outperformed early-round picks such as Stefon Diggs (212.1) and Odell Beckham Jr. (201.3), but did not go so far as to surpass others in his class, such as D.J. Moore (230.5) and DJ Chark (225.8). While I believe there is some room for improvement from an efficiency standpoint, I see two major factors standing in the way of Sutton’s third-year breakout: 1) Little to no increase in volume and 2) The quality of his targets across the season could actually be worse next year. Let’s tackle these one at a time…
Courtland Sutton has some new friends joining the wide receiver room.
While the offensive depth of talent in the 2020 rookie class has impacted fantasy outlooks for plenty of veterans, one of the biggest headlines from NFL draft weekend was the amount of weapons John Elway has given Drew Lock to work with. The Broncos had already signed Melvin Gordon in free agency as a complement to their core 2019 playmakers in Sutton, Noah Fant, and Phillip Lindsay. They followed this up by investing their first and second round draft picks in two young, exciting wide receivers: Top-3 wide receiver prospect / Top-1 route-runner Jerry Jeudy, and Penn State speedster K.J. Hamler. If this means anything, it’s that the Broncos are serious about building a high-scoring offense that can keep up with their division rival Kansas City Chiefs. It also indicates opportunity for Lock to spread the ball around rather than rely on throwing it up to Sutton and having him make plays on his own drive after drive. With many mouths to feed and Broncos QBs throwing in the range of 500-525 passes last year, it will take a jump in game tempo or a concerted effort to pass to ensure Sutton gets an attractive share of targets.
Drew Lock needs to improve both as a QB overall and in his chemistry with Sutton.
Many Sutton owners might remember the diving one-handed touchdown catch he made in Week 13 against the Los Angeles Chargers and think the connection between him and Lock is fine. But if we take a closer look at their five game sample size working together, the prospect of a third-year breakout for Sutton looks bleak:
- Per fantasydata.com, from weeks 13 to 17 when Lock was under center, Sutton scored 62 PPR points. This was tied for 33rd among all wide receivers. He scored fewer points in this stretch than the likes of Cole Beasley, Hunter Renfrow, and Steven Sims Jr.
- While catching passes from Lock, Sutton never recorded a game of over 80 receiving yards.
- Sutton’s 16-game pace based on these 5 weeks was 128 targets (three more than actual), 70 receptions (two fewer than actual), 896 yards (significantly lower than actual) and 6 touchdowns (same as actual).
- Lock averaged 6.5 yards per attempt (Y/A) across these five games. For context on whether 6.5 Y/A is good or bad, Tom Brady (QB11 last year) had 6.6 yards per attempt in 2019. This figure was the first time Brady had fewer than 7 yards per attempt since 2013, and it was his second-lowest rating of this metric in his career.
Elway and the Broncos think Lock is the answer at quarterback, but it’s going to take a lot of coaching and growth for him to elevate the rest of his surrounding talent (including Sutton) for Fantasy purposes.
Verdict
According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Sutton is being drafted as the 12th wide receiver off the board, around the middle of the third round. With new talents joining the Broncos offense to take targets away from Sutton, as well as Drew Lock’s development as a passer in question after a small sample size of five games, I rank Sutton well outside of the top 12 at wide receiver and do not expect him to have the third-year breakout we typically hope for.
Sutton is still a great dynasty asset in my mind, and he will be in starting redraft lineups week one of the 2020 season. Having said that, I would rather draft guys like D.J. Moore, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Ridley before I pull the trigger on Sutton.
