DFS Beer Money Bets | Creating a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 7

This week is an interesting week for this article. I have two processes at completely different sides of the spectrum. If you played my showdown lineup last week, I am so sorry. It didn’t just do poorly, it finished 2nd to last. I think that my showdown process started going down a rabbit hole that I personally have gone down in my professional statistics research. One of the biggest problems with statistics is that it is very easy to make statistics tell you what you want without any significant reasoning. I think I was looking at the wrong variables and so my optimal lineup charts are being left alone for now. I am not even going to go through what went wrong with last week’s process because it was just that bad that I am going to seriously think about what I want to use going forward for my showdown lineups, and you will see my new process next week.

This week’s article is also interesting because I am “retiring” one of my processes after this article. Even though my showdown process has been horrible, my classic early slate process has been incredible. My biggest issue was picking the correct wide receivers and that was corrected with the new value I created called PAWS (Projected points Adjusted for WOPR and Salary). I will be using this process and playing it every week with increased entry fees. The reason I am saying this process is being “retired” is because I will not write about it again for the rest of the season. While I am not cocky enough to think that I have a large enough following to cause too many people to use the process to make it lose its edge, I want this process to remain fairly quiet for now. So the moment we’ve been waiting for:

The FINAL Early Slate Classic Contest Cash Game Process

1. Look at implied totals and identify the teams with the highest totals and select players from those teams. How many teams depend on the number of teams on the slate but I am going to try and keep it to only the top 25% to 30%. 
2. First, create the PAWS value by multiplying projected points per $100 by WOPR. Select wide receivers based on the three highest players for PAWS from these teams with the highest implied totals. Next, select a single running back using the projected points per $100 value from one of these top implied total teams. Do not be afraid to go for high priced and “chalky” players. 
3. To solidify the last few players in my lineup, we need another running back, a quarterback, a flex, a TE, and a DST. Remove the filter for players with high implied totals from earlier and select a running back and a QB that scores well on projected points per $100. Use PAWS to find a TE and FLEX. This is where salary can be saved and there are usually good cheap options based on PAWS for tight ends and FLEX.  
4. Choose a DST that is going against a team with a low implied total and preferably at home. Do not spend a lot of salary on the DST, usually below $3,000 or even less. 

The Process in Action

1. The early slate of games is smaller with only 14 teams so I will only be looking at 4 teams with the highest implied totals. This is the Packers, Saints, Bills, and Falcons. 
2. Next, I sorted wide receiver by PAWS, which produced Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Calvin Ridley as the top three WRs. Then I sorted projected points per $100 salary for RB and Alvin Kamara is the top RB.
3. I removed the top 4 implied totals filter off the data and selected Joe Burrow as the top QB. For my 2nd running back, Antonio Gibson pops out as a steal. Only Aaron Jones and Kareem Hunt are higher than him but are both almost $2,000 more than him so to save some salary, Gibson seems like a great play. I did the same thing with Logan Thomas, as there were 3 players that graded better, but a $3,500 salary is needed with how much the wide receivers cost. Finally, I add Terry McLaurin as my FLEX because he has the highest PAWS score of the week. The problem is, this makes the team horribly over salary, so now I need to go back in and shave somewhere I could. I looked at my starting WRs and took away Davante Adams and Calvin Ridley and went back to part 2 and expanded my parameters and included the Browns, Lions, and Texans so I have the top 50% teams according to implied totals. The top 2 players are Golladay and OBJ and they perfectly fit into the lineup in place of Adams and Ridley.
4. With $2,500 left, it works great as I see Washington D/ST as the perfect play here.

There were some adjustments that had to occur based on salary constraints but it still stuck to the process for the most part. I somehow have a lot of Washington Football Team players and that doesn’t thrill me, but I am trusting the process. Assuming everything goes well, this is the last time I will talk about this process until the rest of the season. Good luck this week and if you have any questions, you can find me on Twitter @bpofsu. Also for all of your DFS needs, check out Paulie’s DFS Sleepers and Michael Reedy’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers here at The Undroppables.