Among the fantasy football community on Twitter, the hip thing to do during dynasty startup drafts is to trade back for more value. Nearly every seasoned dynasty player I interact with on Twitter supports and endorses this strategy. In fact, some of the Undroppables squad are notorious for constantly moving back in a draft to collect picks in Rounds 3-8. You can build a solid squad of guys that could outperform their average draft position (ADP) in these rounds. They are targeting second-tier guys that may turn into top-tier players. However, what this startup draft strategy gains in depth and later-round value, it misses on bona fide, elite talent.
This trend is starting to take off in the many startup drafts I have participated in the past two seasons. Trade back for current rookies. Trade back for future rookie picks. Trade back for additional picks in later rounds. But to win at fantasy football, sometimes you need to do things differently than what the majority are doing. So what if instead of trading back, you decided to trade up in a startup draft? Can you build your team with studs, while sacrificing picks in those coveted trade back rounds of 3-8? This article presents a case study from a recent Chalk Leagues startup draft, and I will let you decide if this alternative strategy is worth the risk.
League Rules
Teams: 12
Relevant settings: Superflex; PPR; 1.5 PPR for TEs
Draft format: Dynasty startup; snake draft; rookies included; free to trade any picks up to 2022
Draft position: 6
The Draft
Round 1:
- Traded away picks 2.07, 4.07, and 6.07 for the 1.07 and 9.07
- Drafted Michael Thomas at 1.06 and Kyler Murray at 1.07
This trade allowed me to grab my #1 ranked WR and my #3 ranked QB. Drafting from the middle you are left waiting, hoping your choice doesn’t get sniped in front of you. Building a dynasty roster with two young, highly productive top-tier players is a great start. Michael Thomas has proven he’s an elite player who will catch anything you throw his way. He is a PPR god, as he racked up a record-setting 149 receptions last year. And Kyler Murray is the next NFL star looking to improve on his 2019 Rookie of the Year performance. His upside is matching Mahomes’ and Jackson’s jump to elite status the past two seasons.
Round 3:
- Traded away 5.06, 9.07, and 15.06 for the 3.07, 12.06, and 14.06
- Drafted David Montgomery at 3.06 and Cam Akers at 3.07
By Round 3, the top tier of RBs were all taken. With another set of back-to-back picks, I drafted two young RBs who have great long-term potential to turn into studs as the RB14 and RB15 off the board. Without another pick until Round 7 I have tried to load up on front-end talent and draft youth early. My hope was that veteran RBs will be available later for one to three years of production. Per a source, Montgomery has been working hard this offseason for a great sophomore campaign as the workhorse in Chicago. The rookie Cam Akers does not immediately step into a starting role in L.A., but he has the skill set and talent to beat out Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson by mid-season.
Round 7:
- Traded picks at the turn, 7.06 and 8.07 for the 7.12 and 8.01
- Traded away the 7.12 and 9.06 for the 7.07, 13.07, and a 2021 3rd
- Drafted Jalen Reagor at 7.07
- Traded away Cam Akers for Justin Herbert (selected at 7.10)
The focus of this draft is to build this team with youth. While guys like Stefon Diggs, Tyler Boyd, and Michael Gallup were still on the board, Jalen Reagor has the profile and draft capital to be a WR1 in a few short years. He’s a potential phenom that reminds me of Brandin Cooks, who landed in a great opportunity in Philadelphia with two WRs on the tail end of their careers, and a QB that is looking for a play maker. The Reagor-train has been chugging along solidly on Twitter for months now, and in drafts like these you have to get “your guys” before they’re gone. Now I have a boom-bust type player to pair with Thomas who has a safe and high floor.
At this point in the draft, I begin to realize that the top QB prospects are being selected and I risk missing out on a long-term option at QB. The first potential pitfall of my trade up strategy: missing out on middle of the pack draft picks in a Superflex league when the rest of the QBs are being selected. Because I moved up early, I left myself vulnerable to a position that matters immensely in this league format. However, giving up a hopeful prospect like Akers for another hopeful prospect in a higher profile position is a pretty even trade for me. If I were going to draft a QB at 3.07 instead of David Montgomery, I could have had Joe Burrow or Josh Allen. This was definitely the first mistake for this draft strategy.
Round 8:
- Traded up to 8.01 (previous trade)
- Drafted Melvin Gordon III at 8.01
Since I traded away Cam Akers for Justin Herbert, I was in need of a RB2. Left with either Gordon or Kerryon Johnson, I opted for MG3. Despite missing significant time last year and getting a late start, MG3 still put up respectable numbers in 8 of the 12 games he played in while splitting time with Austin Ekeler. Gordon could still be in a similar timeshare situation now in Denver, but his style of play and pedigree will give him first dibs as the lead runner with Lindsay in the mix. With his injury history, it would be unwise to have Gordon serve as a bell cow running back, but despite splitting time, he should still get enough opportunities to produce solid RB2 numbers with scattered weekly performances in the RB1 category.
Round 10:
- Traded away 11.06, 13.06 and a 2021 2nd for the 10.03 and 15.02
- Drafted Mike Williams at 10.03 and Austin Hooper at 10.07
I moved up again here in the 10th round to grab Mike Williams as WR45 off the board; again a situation where I had to move up in order to not miss out on a young player with upside. Mikey Dubs had a relative disappointing 2019 and the waters are still murky for his 2020 outlook with a new QB under center and a battle occurring between Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert to play that role. However, at only 25 years old with a ton of talent and play-making ability, I still have hope for Williams to turn it around, and at that value it was hard to pass up given how the draft was going.
Austin Hooper was one of my favorite players going into 2019, and he delivered. He earned himself a new contract with the Cleveland Browns making him the highest-paid tight end in the league as of this writing. That move surprised many, as the Browns already have David Njoku. Even more disappointing is that Kevin Stefanski’s offenses haven’t typically featured 2 TEs with fantasy relevance. Still, Hooper should be that guy who gets a hefty share of the 200+ targets remaining that OBJ and Landry don’t gobble up. With a phenomenal catch rate in the high 70-percent range, Hooper should be able to pull in some solid mid-level TE1 production with 80+ targets and a handful of TDs.
In the remaining 14 rounds I drafted veterans for immediate production, and 1st and 2nd year players with upside. Through trade I was able to collect back-to-back picks in the 12th and 14th rounds. With those picks, I selected Anthony Miller (12.6), Jordan Howard (12.7), Hunter Renfrow (14.6), and Jalen Hurts (14.7). One of my favorite players for 2020 that I snagged in the 15th round was Blake Jarwin, who steps in to a potentially significant target share of 80+ targets in the tight end role on a loaded Cowboys team.
My late-round fliers included rookie WRs Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Coulter, and James Proche, all of which will need time to develop. Jalen Hurd selected at 17.6 is my sleeper of the draft. He is a play maker receiver with a ton of talent that I’m counting on to have a bounce back year.
Overall, I am happy with my team (Sleeper). I may not be contending for the title in 2020, but I am building a foundation for the future. The strategy to move up netted me two top-tier players in Michael Thomas and Kyler Murray. Without that move, I could not draft two players of this caliber by taking picks as they come.
The one critique I have of this strategy is to contend right away, you’ll have to be more aggressive. Going all-in on trading away later round and future draft picks. I chose a more conservative approach to moving up as I still hold all future draft picks. A few mid-season and post-season trades will turn this roster into a contender in a few short years. But the foundational pieces are there, even if they get traded. Different strategies fit different leagues and different types of players. But try trading up and go all-in on those top-5 guys at each position in the first three rounds. Then add high upside guys in the later rounds of the draft.
Now the question is if this is the right strategy for you? Let me know what you think!
