Dynasty Startup Game Theory

In dynasty, we have our teams forever. We literally only get one chance at a startup draft. I’ve seen teams set themselves back 5 years just because of a flawed startup strategy. There is more than one acceptable startup strategy, but for me there is only one way to do it. And it has seemed to work, regardless of the league.

There are some basic startup strategies I employ and I’ll get to them in a moment. But first, before you do anything, it’s most important to understand the type of league you are in. How many teams? How many roster spots? How deep are the lineups? What are the scoring settings? These are all hugely important to the strategy. In general, the smaller the lineups and the fewer the teams and the shallower the rosters, the more you need to value top-end talent (trade up) and the more teams and deeper rosters and lineups, the more you want to value depth (trade back).

In general, the ‘standard’ leagues we play in these days (dynasty) are 12 team leagues. A very typical lineup is QB, 2RB, 2-3WR, TE, 2-3 Flex and most often a Superflex. Generally speaking, a 10-12 player starting lineup is deployed. Dynasty rosters will typically field between 24-30 players.

These are the ‘standard’ settings I am referring to. In a league like this it’s important to understand where the cliffs are. In the NFL there are 32 teams. That means there are only 32 starting QBs. And not all of them are #good. So let’s say there are 20-25 startable QBs. There are also only 32 starting RBs. Some teams support 2 (Saints, Patriots) and some support none (Dolphins). So let’s assume there are 30 startable RBs. When it comes to Tight Ends, there are only 10-15 quality options. When it comes to wide receivers, there are more and more each year because of increased passing in today’s game and the disappearance of the true alpha WR. There are generally about two WRs per team that are viable. Let’s just say there are 50 of them.

So, in conclusion, there are 25 QBs, 30 RBs, 15 TEs and 50 WRs. That’s 120 total players. That is exactly 10 rounds of a dynasty startup draft.

What does that tell you? You want as many picks in the top 120 as possible. That’s what it tells us.

So how do we attain maximum capital in the top-120? We trade back. There is more than one way to make these trades, so be creative. Here are some general principles: Your 1st round pick is VERY valuable. And you only get one. So make the most of it. If you can, trade your 1st for a later 1st plus picks later. Like, 1.03 for 1.07 & 5.07 & 8.06 (or something like that). There is no exact science or valuation. As a matter of fact, you may be able to sell the move from 1.07 to 1.03 for much more than I just illustrated. It all depends upon your league mates and their zeal for a certain pick or player. Know your league.

Now, don’t stop there. Keep trading. And the further back you have to go, the more you should ask for in return. The goal here is to stack as many picks in the top 120 as possible.

Remember though, the elite players are usually drafted in the top 5 rounds (roughly), so value those picks a fair amount more than later picks in the top-120.

When you are trading back, your league mates will want to sell you short, as they should. Be respectful of all offers, even if they are ridiculous. Don’t ever disrespect another owner’s offer. It does you no good to do that. Simply decline and move along. If and when you make a move with another owner, the owner with the terrible offer will then see what it takes to get a deal done. And that will serve as his educational moment. You don’t need to be ‘the genius’ of your league. Having good relationships with all the other owners will make your team better because owners will know they can come to you with any offer.

Ok, great. So now I have two 3rds and two 4ths and two 5ths and two 7ths and three 10ths (or something like that) and I have been able to grab a few future first-round picks; That’s all great, but who the hell do I draft??!!

This may be the most important of all. Now, I won’t fault you for drafting stud RBs. It’s a fact, stud RBs win ships. However, in a startup, I’m looking at a different archetype. I will definitely draft a stud running back if I can. But don’t force the running back position. Running backs have a very short shelf life. Only the truly elite RBs last longer than 2-3 years (for fantasy).*

So for me, I build my startups with Young Stud WRs. I target WRs between 21-25 years old and I grab as many as I can. These assets (young WRs) will buoy your team for the coming years. Literally, for the next 5-8 years they should remain viable. And if they are young, they will also begin to increase in value. In one league last year, I drafted Amari, DJ Moore, Golladay, Godwin, Boyd and AJ Brown. None of them were taken in the top 2 rounds. They are all now top-12 dynasty wide receivers (except Boyd). Barring anything crazy, all of these guys will continue to be viable for many years to come. Also, because I traded back so much. I was able to attain 2020 1sts. I have 1.03 1.04 & 1.07. That where I can grab my RBs to go along with my WRs. Draft elite running backs in the rookie draft.

#LateRoundQB in all formats. In 1QB formats, this strategy is relatively easy to execute. In 2QB and Superflex leagues, it’s a little more challenging. However, if you have already traded back, then you have a lot of picks clustered together and you can avoid missing out on runs more easily. With the additional draft capital you have accrued, you can even trade up if you feel you need to in order to secure a QB. Remember, Lamar was a late-round target last year in dynasty start-ups. The important thing in Superflex drafts is to try and leave the draft with three starters if you can. Two at a minimum.

1. Trade back.
2. Accrue top-120 picks and future rookie picks.
3. Draft young stud WRs.
4. Wait on QB.
5. Don’t force RBs, but take the value when it’s there. Stud RBs are a premium asset.

* There is another major reason that RBs are more volatile. If a veteran running back is replaced and becomes the RB2 on his NFL team, he almost useless in fantasy. If a wide receiver is replaced by a younger stud wide receiver and becomes the WR2 on his team, then so what. He may still see 100 targets. Even if he is the WR3 he can often approach 100 targets in the right offense. Look at Larry Fitzgerald. He is still a viable fantasy option. Crazy.