The first quarter of the NFL season is coming to an end this weekend, and we are finally starting to get a better at understanding of who’s real and who isn’t. Here at The Undroppables, we’ve been known for our Cant-Cut-Lists, but with the Fantasy Hot Seat, we must look the other way. As we have been doing all season, we will examine players who should be closely watched and those who should be cut.
Last week, we introduced quick updates to previous weeks, so let’s dig into where players are today and whether we can begin to lock them in or have to sever ties completely.
Hot Seat Report Card
Hot Seat: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr, Austin Hooper, Joe Mixon
Warm Seat: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Austin Ekeler, Cooper Kupp, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Cold Seat: A.J. Brown, Aaron Rodgers
Hot Seat
It’s a no-brainer at this point that any player involved in the Browns passing game should is in the hot seat. Baker, OBJ, and Austin Hooper are underperforming, including in games against sub-par defenses. Baker did throw two more TDs last Sunday, but neither OBJ nor Hooper caught either, and Baker had less than 160 yards passing in the game. Joe Mixon is a must-trade at this time. His opportunity makes him a must start on your roster if you have him, but you need to trade him as quickly as possible, specifically if you can get someone to give you something of value. Mixon has less than 3.2 yards per attempt and hasn’t scored at all this year. He is nearly non-existent in the passing game and isn’t getting many opportunities at the goal line, either.
Warm Seat
Last week I had both Brady and Brees on the Hot Seat. While I can still find a reason to keep them on the hot seat, they both produced QB1 stats last week, finishing 10th and 11th, respectively. Brees is getting bailed out by Kamara and should get Thomas back hopefully as early as Week 5, but will likely get him back following their Week 7 bye. Brady finally got Gronkowski involved, who had six receptions last week, giving us hope. With the Godwin injury, maybe it gets even better. Austin Ekeler had his breakout game in Week 3 which we very much needed. Ekeler gained nearly five yards per attempt and caught all 11 of his targets for 84 yards, scoring once on the ground.
Cooper Kupp is an intriguing one for me. I have been off his bandwagon for most of the season. However, after catching nine of ten targets for 107 yards and a touchdown, he may be on the right track to becoming an every-week starter again. Zach Ertz finished as a top-10 TE for the first time this season in a Week 3 tie against Cincinnati, and the Eagles lost Goedert to injury, which will ultimately make Ertz the #1 target again.
Lastly, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, like Kupp, is very much an intriguing piece for me. In Week 1, he gained over five yards per attempt, but hasn’t broken the four-yard YPA mark since. Despite his lack of yardage gains, he has been involved in the passing game more significantly. He’s caught 11 passes on 13 targets for over 100 yards in his last two games.
Cold Seat
Aaron Rodgers is on an absolute TEAR! He currently sits as QB6 and is tied for 3rd with nine touchdown passes. He also has nearly 900 yards on the season already and is doing it with absolutely no rushing stats. Rodgers is just one of three QBs in the top-10 of fantasy who have ten or fewer rushing attempts.
I have to put A.J. Brown here even though I absolutely don’t want to, simply because he hasn’t played enough to warrant either of the above selection. I am still not high on him once he does officially come back, but you have to hold on to him just in case for the time being. If you can get someone to buy high on him, I’d take it now. With the bye week coming early for Tennessee due to the Covid-19 postponement of their Week 4 game vs. the Steelers, we can hope to see him back on the field next week.
Week 4 Fantasy Hot Seat
Deshaun Watson, QB; Houston Texans
For decades, if not longer, teams who start 0-2 have already put a nail in their coffin, but what about 0-3? Since 1980, 182 teams have finished 0-3, and less than 4% have made the playoffs. Sure, the Texans can join the other six groups who have ever done it, but the odds are very much not in their favor. However, if the Texans are going to do it, they will NEED Watson to perform better. Watson was on the right track in Week 3 against the Steelers, throwing for two touchdowns early but only having four total on the year. His adjusted completion percentage is 23rd in the league, his yards passing is less than 800, and he is shockingly lacking in the rushing department.
Through the first three weeks, Watson has run the ball just 12 times for only 49 yards. Of the 14 QBs who have at least 12 carries, all but one has more rushing yards than him. My biggest concern for Watson and the Texans is their upcoming schedule. Over the next 13 games, they will face the top 15 coverage defenses (according to PFF Coverage Grade) nine times. Watson is currently ranked as QB18, and you drafted him as QB5 in most cases. If he doesn’t turn it around and soon, it might be time to ship the former Clemson Tiger off.
Kenyan Drake – RB, Arizona Cardinals
I will (slightly) give Drake a bit of the benefit of the doubt here with this one, but it must be discussed. Drake has just been bad so far this year, but a lot of that has to do with how poor their offensive line has been. According to PFF Offensive Line Run Blocking Grades, the Cardinals are 30th in the league, down from 24th just a year ago. Like Ekeler and Mixon, who we’ve discussed in previous weeks, Drake was drafted by many fantasy players to be the RB1 or a steal RB2 if you were lucky enough to be able to draft two guys that early. However, after just three weeks, he is currently sitting at RB29 in PPR scoring. This ranking makes him nothing more than an RB3 or Flex option, and that’s certainly not what you drafted him to do. Drake played eight games for the Cardinals in 2019; during those games, he finished with a 5.2 YPA and had gained over 80 yards per game, scoring eight times. Drake also received 28 passes for over 170 yards. In 2020, Drake has lost a yard on his average per attempt and ten yards on his yards per game.
Meanwhile, Drake is also having issues finding the end zone, with a pace of just five this year. Drake and the Cardinals get the Panthers this week, who rank dead last in rushing defense and have given up some pretty big games to other RB1 types such as Jacobs and Ekeler. If Ekeler was able to bounce back following his opportunity vs. Carolina, Drake should as well. However, if he doesn’t, his seat is only going to get hotter.
*Concerned Kenyan Drake manager notices the Panthers are up next on the schedule* pic.twitter.com/LiGt32tTUf
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 29, 2020
D.J. Moore – WR, Carolina Panthers
I will say this now, and before you read any further: D.J. Moore isn’t on the Fantasy Hot Seat for any other reason than poor QB play. So when the Twitter-verse sees this and asks themselves, “what is this idiot doing?” keep that context in mind. Now that I have said that, let’s get down to why he’s on the list: Teddy Bridgewater.
Moore is currently sitting WR31 in PPR leagues catching only 14 receptions, but gaining 239 yards. There are multiple problems with this. First, he has done this on just 53% catch percentage, having received 26 targets (flat dropping two of them.) Secondly, he hasn’t found the end zone yet, and for someone you drafted as the 48th overall player according to The Undroppables ADP, you need more out of him. Now let’s take a look at some of the things that make us think more is on the way. First, Moore has one of the top target shares in the league (26%, T-8th). Moore has the 3rd-most catches of 15+ yards (7) and has the 2nd highest percentage of his teams’ Air Yards (50%).
However, as we mentioned above, much of the bad comes from the pairing with his new QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has thrown catchable targets on 88% of his passes to ANY receiver not named D.J. Moore. On passes thrown to Moore? That catchable target percentage drops to 61%. It’s clear that D.J. Moore is a stud of a player, but if fantasy owners continue to start him, it needs to get better. If you’re in a redraft league, look to shop him. If you are in dynasty, make sure to hold on as if Bridgewater can’t get it done, the Panthers will be looking elsewhere at QB in 2021.
Mark Andrews – TE, Baltimore Ravens
I feel gross even saying this (#BOOMER), but Mark Andrews is slowly dropping for me, and it doesn’t look good moving forward. Fantasy players drafted Andrews as the 3rd tight end off the board behind Kittle and Kelce for apparent reasons. However, through the first three weeks of the season, he sits at TE15 in PPR leagues. The Ravens are on pace to surpass Jackson’s number of passing attempts from a year ago (albeit only by a few), but they still rank 31st in passing plays called per game. While that is happening, Andrew’s route participation increases from 55.1% last season to 83.3% through the first three games.
Despite his increased opportunity, his target share has dropped from 24.1% to 22.7%. Despite all of that, he is 4th in air yards, and 3rd in his teams share of the air yards at 29.4%. Two of the most significant issues I have seen so far on tape have come from his catchable target rate: 82.4%, 17th in the league, and a True Catch Rate of 64.3%, good for 35th.
The other issue is that defenses are aware of how truly talented he is while also understanding that receiving options outside of Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews are thin. In 2019, defenses gave Andrews an average cushion of 2.59 yards, which was 8th best in the league, and it allowed for him to rack up the 7th most receptions, the 5th most yards while securing the most TDs of any TE in the league. In 2020, that cushion has dropped to 1.09, leaving a target separation of just 1.59 yards. Lastly, according to PFF, their strength of schedule for tight ends isn’t very good, ranking 20th in the fantasy regular-season and 15th during the fantasy playoffs (standard 13-week regular season with a three-week fantasy playoff). If defenses get more challenging down the stretch, we may be looking at a bust season for the former Oklahoma Sooner.
