We’ve now eclipsed the first quarter mark on the season for all but two teams (Titans and Steelers will play in a couple of weeks to make up for last week). With that, we have plenty of information on players who we should be high on and those who need to go ASAP.
This column is always dedicated to the players who are or should be on the Hot Seat. They are players who should be sell-high candidates for your team. However, should they be rostered on another team, they could definitely be a buy-low candidate.
Hot Seat Report Card
Hot Seat: Kenyan Drake, Rob Gronkowski
Warm Seat: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Joe Mixon, Austin Hooper, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deshaun Watson, D.J. Moore, Mark Andrews
Cold Seat: A.J. Brown, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cooper Kupp, Drew Brees
Week 5 Hot Seat
Marquise Brown – WR, Baltimore Ravens
Like teammate Mark Andrews, Brown has officially found himself on the hot seat. There is a lot to like about Marquise Brown, including the pace he is on to exceed his 2019 numbers such as targets, receptions, and yards, while also seeing an increase in yards per reception and first downs. However, his QB rating when targeted is down nearly 50 points, his catch percentage is down 9%, and his YAC/REC is down almost two yards.
One of the most significant issues will stem from the Ravens run-heavy offensive scheme. The Ravens are currently 31st in pass plays per game, and Brown is only running routes on 90% of those plays, which ranks 42nd in the league. Another issue with Brown is his lack of touchdowns. In 2019, Brown had seven TDs, but he has yet to find the end zone in 2020, and it has dropped him to 47th in PPR fantasy points.
The good news is that he has one of the higher target shares in the NFL and is ranked 7th in Air Yards. Brown is also 1st in aDOT (17.5) and 2nd in Deep Targets (12). This provides us with some hope that things will eventually begin to change. If Brown can find the end zone a bit more consistently, we could find ourselves with a league winner down the stretch. Brown was drafted to be a WR2, but it might be time for Brown to see your bench until we can get that consistency.
Marquise Brown is getting true WR1 usage this year:
* Running a route on 87% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks
* 27% target share
* 43% of air yardsRookie season:
* 80% route/dropback
* 19% target share
* 23% of air yards— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 8, 2020
Michael Gallup – WR, Dallas Cowboys
Michael Gallup was drafted as a WR2, but he was your first receiver in a ZeroWR strategy for many of you. In 2019, Gallup ranked 23rd in PPR scoring while catching more than 50% of his targets slightly. It gave us hope that Gallup could increase on that ranking in 2020; however, he has dropped in 2020. Obviously, it’s very early, but Gallup currently ranks as 33rd WR in PPR while being on pace for 30 fewer targets, 15 fewer receptions, and two fewer touchdowns.
Gallup remains on pace for yardage from a year ago, but keep in mind nearly half of his 2020 production has come in just one game this year. The biggest issue for Gallup is the number of viable receivers in the Cowboys passing game. They currently roster three players with 1,000-yard talent, which has likely relegated Gallup to the third or fourth read on most passing plays. With a team lead in deep targets, Gallup is probably going to continue to be the deep threat on the Cowboys, and while that may be great for Gallup and the Cowboys, it may not be for fantasy players hoping for the consistency from 2019.
Michael Gallup has 17 of Dak Prescott's 430 passing yards.
Seven-frigging-teen
— Doug AKA TheFantasyMoose (@TheFantasyMoose) October 4, 2020
Evan Engram – TE, New York Giants
Evan Engram currently ranks as the 21st best fantasy tight end. This is despite ranking 3rd in targets (29) and 8th in receptions (17). Despite the decent production, the Giants offense seems to be where fantasy players go to die. Saquon Barkley has been lost for the year now twice in a row, Sterling Shepard is injured again, and former 6th overall draft pick Daniel Jones ranks 29th. This is obviously hurting the 6th drafted tight end according to FF Calculator. In 2019, Engram missed eight games and was still ranked inside the top-20 at the position, giving us hope that in 2020 we’d have the stud TE we’ve been waiting for.
With that, you drafted Engram as the 6th overall tight end this year, but with a lack of yards and touchdowns, we’re not getting the value we had hoped for. Engram’s excellent news is his 100% route participation, which ranks 1st, showing the endless opportunity in the passing game. However, his deep targets, target share, and yards per target are all down a year ago. The obvious elephant in the room here is whether or not QB Daniel Jones is good enough to get Engram involved. Engram currently ranks 33rd in target quality, 27th in catchable targets, and 30th in true catch rate. Engram gets the Cowboys this week, who have given up a TD to tight ends in two of four games. THIS is the game we need an Evan Engram turn it around. If we don’t, its likely time to move on.
Evan Engram has faced brutal PIT, CHI, SF, LAR so far. But usage has been strong:
* Playing 90% of the snaps
* Slot or wide 53% of snaps
* Team-leading 20.1% target share
* Gets DAL, WAS, PHI, TB, WAS, PHI, CIN, SEA, ARZ next— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 5, 2020
