Welcome to the first annual edition of The Undroppables Hot Takes! The Undroppables analysts bring the heat with their boldest predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season!
Sam Darnold makes the leap and finishes as a Top 15 QB
I know it seems really spicy, but it’s more feasible than people think! Darnold closed the final 8 games of the fantasy season (Weeks 8-16) as the QB8 overall. This happened not only with the second worst protection rate in the league, (31st overall) but also with the 28th ranked supporting cast. Both of those should see bumps in 2020, giving Darnold more time to let the play develop with the Jets bringing in 6 new offensive lineman. On top of that, the additions of Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and a healthy Chris Herndon should only help his case.
Now add in the fact that the Jets defense has taken some big hits with Jamal Adams being shipped out and C.J. Mosley opting out this year; this should lead to a lot of negative game scripts and more passing opportunities. One last thing in Darnold’s favor for 2020 is that he is in the same offensive system and playbook for the first time in his NFL career. Familiarity should only benefit him, no matter how much you despise Adam Gase. Darnold is currently going as QB25 in redraft ADP, so you can get him as a late flier or your QB2 and hope the upside shows through.
Baker Mayfield will rebound from last year’s struggles and finish as a Top 12 QB
Currently, the Expert Consensus Rankings pegs Baker as the QB19 in redraft (he finished as the QB19 last year.) The factors against Mayfield in 2020 include his recent struggles and the fact that Kevin Stefanski has taken over as the Browns’ head coach. Stefanski is most notable for limiting the Vikings’ passing game (e.g., Cousins, Thielen, Diggs) but Cousins still had respective finishes over the past two seasons as the QB15 and QB13.
Stefanski isn’t the only coaching change in Cleveland, however. The Browns also hired Bill Callahan to coach their offensive line. Callahan is well known as a great o-line coach, so he should bring sound blocking schemes and coaching to a group in transition. Cleveland also signed free agent linemen Jack Conklin from the Titans. Between their marquee signing and 10th overall draft pick Jedrick Wills Jr., I expect a welcome improvement to the offensive line.
Last year from Week 1 through 6, Baker averaged 13.06 points per game and ranked at QB21. Cleveland then had its bye in Week 7 and Kareem Hunt returned after the bye week. From Week 9 through 17, Mayfield produced 17.70 points per game as the QB9. This is quite a stark difference, as the addition of Hunt and his receiving prowess helped Baker be more efficient: his second-half numbers included a 60.1% completion rate and near 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio (15-8).
As Marc Mathyk pointed out, Mayfield has never finished better than QB17 in his first two seasons. It appears that Baker realizes that the time has come for him to reach the high expectations set by him and the Browns. He’s been noticeably quiet and away from the public eye, presumably focused on 2020 and preparing himself to make the leap.
Art.@JayT23 | #ColtsCamp pic.twitter.com/mP1nXmfJIN
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) August 18, 2020
Jonathan Taylor will be a Top 10 RB
Jonathan Taylor will see what Vegas has deemed the easiest schedule in 2020 behind arguably the best offensive line in football. The only thing between him and a dominant fantasy football season is Marlon Mack, who is coming off a 2019 season with 1,000 rushing yards. Let me tell you why that isn’t stopping JT from eating: in 2019, the Colts rushed the ball 471 times; Mack got 247 of those carries. If we assume an even split, JT still gets over 200 carries. His college statistics, coach’s comments, and elite SPARQ rating tell me he will make the most of those opportunities and earn more.
Cam Akers is the rookie RB1 and finishes as a Top 12 RB
Cam Akers will beat out Darrell Henderson and earn the starting running back spot vacated by the departure of Todd Gurley. With a majority of the Ram’s rushes and over 50 targets, Akers will finish as the highest-scoring rookie running back.
– @BpoFSU
Ronald Jones holds off the competition and finishes as a low-end RB1
Ronald Jones came into the NFL early. He’s only 23 years old and is finally putting it all together in terms of what it takes to be an NFL back. LeSean McCoy is a veteran depth piece, and Head Coach Bruce Arians gives rookies like Ke’Shawn Vaughn the invisible treatment. Jones has more scoring opportunities in a potent, Brady-led offense, and his 10.0 yard per catch and top-tier yards after contact statistics prove he can be a productive weapon. My projection for Jones sits at 190 carries for 855 yards & 42 receptions for 378 yards with 8+ TDs.
Gallup
Doyle
Boyd
Ronald Jones#AlwaysJulio— 🚫Paulie's Sleepers🚫 (@PauliesSleepers) August 18, 2020
Nick Chubb will be a Top 3 Dynasty RB this time next year
With Kevin Stefanski coming over from Minnesota bringing a run heavy approach, combined with the Browns adding Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. to the starting lineup, it sets up Nick Chubb to have another fantastic year. Stefanski brought in seasoned o-line coach Bill Callahan and his 21 years of NFL experience, which should help Wills Jr speed up the transition to LT and pull it all together up front and put the offense on the right track. If and when Hunt leaves in the offseason, and Mike McCarthy doesn’t use Zeke to his full potential, then Chubb is a top 3 dynasty running back this time next year.
– @Jeoff66
D.J. Moore will be a Top 5 WR
In Michael Thomas’ second year in the NFL, he posted a receiving line of 104 receptions, 1,245 yards, and 5 touchdowns in 16 games, with Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees as his quarterback. With Kyle Allen as his quarterback for D.J. Moore’s second year, his 16-game pace (based on 14 full games played) was 98 receptions, 1,324 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
Moore is only 23 years old, he’s going into his highly-touted “3rd year breakout” season,
hes’ getting an upgrade at QB in Teddy Bridgewater, and LSU’s former offensive coordinator Joe Brady is now the OC in Carolina. Top it with the fact that Head Coach Matt Rhule offered Moore a scholarship to Temple as he was coming out of high school, and it’s obvious the stars are aligning for D.J. Moore to be the next Fantasy Stud WR.
Juju Smith-Schuster will be a Top 7 WR in his last year as a Steeler
Obviously, Juju Smith-Schuster relies on the health of Ben Roethlisberger, and this take makes the assumption that we’re going to get a full season out of both players. Juju is playing for a contract, and it’s my belief that he wants to leave Pittsburgh to come back home and play in Los Angeles.
We haven’t heard very much from Juju this offseason. Whereas previous off-season‘s he was all over social media being a clown and having a good time, but not this year. That says to me he was focused when it’s gonna come out more motivated than ever. He put on 15 pounds of muscle so he can carry the weight of being a number one receiver on that team and I think ultimately his desire is to come play at home. One way for him to do that is to be a top 10 wide receiver in 2020.
Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings in receptions.
• Adam Thielen was the 26th ranked WR last year per PFF
• Only 2 WRs older than 30 ranked inside their top 25 (Julio & E Sanders)
• a 30 Y/O WR has recorded 90+ receptions just 18 times
• only 4 WRs the last three years have topped 1,000 yards
• With Diggs in Buffalo pic.twitter.com/wDsELJ12xw— Randal Kennedy 🇺🇸 (@FF_Terminator) August 18, 2020
Jonnu Smith is a top 5 TE
Book it.
Jonnu Smith – A Thread.
Who: Starting TE for the Tennessee Titans
What: A low-end TE 1 in 2020
Why: Opportunity, Athleticism.
Continued Below ↓@TheUndroppables— Vivek Iyer (@FantasyandSport) June 30, 2020
Darren Waller is a lock to finish as a Top 3 TE
Last year, Waller was one of the NFL’s most productive tight ends, but people are wondering if he can repeat. Looking at some of the most predictive stats to following season fantasy points (r^2 > 40%), Waller was second in YAC, fourth in receiving first downs per game, and third in receiving yards per game among tight ends. Looking beyond production, he’s more athletic than almost every other TE in the league, with a 99th percentile speed score and 90th percentile burst score. Both 2019’s production and his athleticism add up to a big year in 2020.
People are saying that the additions of rookie wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards will eat into his target share in an already run-happy offense. While they will get their targets, targets are funneled to good players, and Waller stands among the elite at his position. Kyle Borgognoni wrote a great article debunking the narrative that “there are too many mouths to feed.” Additionally, rookie wide receivers don’t tend to be very productive in their first year. Since 1990, only 15% of first round rookie wide receivers have finished as a top-24 WR.
Waller is going to be elite, fade him at your own risk. Just take it from Jason Witten, “I think he’s going to be a star … I don’t think there’s a limit to what he can achieve in this league.”
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