Our very own Paul Lundgaard, aka @PauliesSleepers, brings his deep dive on the Indianapolis Colts offseason breakdown to the table. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter what you think!
The Indianapolis Colts made some key additions to the team during free agency and the NFL Draft that indicate a strong push for a title. If there ever was a “win now” team, they are it. I’ll break down these moves along with positional discussions for the Colts offense and provide redraft and dynasty outlooks.
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett filled in admirably after the retirement of Andrew Luck just weeks before the 2019 season, and he is still one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, but a change was needed for this championship window. Enter Philip Rivers. On March 17th, the team signed Rivers to a one-year $25 million contract, all guaranteed money. Per Mike Chappell of CBS, head coach Frank Reich and Rivers fully expect a “multi-year relationship”. If Rivers performs as expected, he will likely sign another similar contract. Rivers has posted 4 of his top 5 highest seasons in attempts the last 5 years, with one outlier of 508 attempts in 2018. I expect the Colts to lean heavily on the run and for Rivers to post numbers similar to that outlier year. The Colts had 513 pass attempts in 2019 to go along with 471 rushing attempts, and I expect 500 or more rushing attempts in 2020. I’ll break down the players at the end of the article for fantasy purposes, but don’t expect Rivers to be a QB1 in 2020.
Brissett is on the last year of his contract and becomes an undrafted free agent (UFA) at the end of 2020. Expect him to sign with a QB-needy team in 2021. A move that will likely pave the way for Brissett’s departure was the Colts drafting Jacob Eason of the Washington Huskies 122nd overall in the draft. Eason threw for 3,132 yards in 2019, posting 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in his 1st year as a starter after transferring to Washington via Georgia. Eason is a prospect that is not as raw as some think, and could benefit greatly under the wing of Rivers. His twitter handle is @SkinnyQB10 because in Pop Warner his father knew he had the tools to become an offensive weapon (specifically QB), but forced him to start on the offensive line so he would learn about the position that would likely be protecting him in the future. Eason was rated by 247 sports as the #2 pro style recruit in his class and possesses the arm strength, accuracy, surprising mobility, and pocket presence to succeed at the next level. Per @ReflipeWThenuz from Dynasty Nerds, Eason’s pro skill set is reminiscent of Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe, and Byron Leftwich. In dynasty superflex formats, I would advocate adding Eason as a low-cost, high-reward stash.
Running Back
The Colts had a solid running back corps heading into the 2020 NFL draft. The group was led by starter Marlon Mack, followed by scatback and speedster Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and former undrafted free agent (UDFA) Bruce Anderson III (originally signed and cut by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.) I fully expected the Colts to roll with this group being Mack’s final year and address the position in 2021 with so many young UFAs and a 2021 running back draft class with solid prospects. The team threw a very welcomed wrench into these expectations by trading up 3 spots and giving up the 44th and 160th picks to the Cleveland Browns to select (by my estimation the most talented running in the class) Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor.
With only 3 picks to fade, the Colts traded up for Taylor, which indicated to me that they had knowledge of, or at least a strong expectation that, the Jaguars would draft him. The Browns have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the latter of which they had placed a 2nd round tender on. The Bears have David Montgomery, who they selected in the 2019 draft and projects to be their bell cow. Then we have the Jaguars, a run-first team who had publicly put Leonard Fournette on the trade block to no avail. Fournette is in the last year of his contract and not likely to be re-signed. By trading up to get Taylor, the Colts got “their guy” and kept him off a division rival at the same time in a brilliant move that many haven’t talked about from this lens.
A move indicating an even more run-heavy scheme for 2020 was the acquisition of fullback Roosevelt Nix, who was drafted by the Falcons in 2014 and has spent the last four years as a lead blocker for the Steelers. The Colts haven’t rostered a fullback in several years. Nix, who checks in at 5’11” and 248 pounds, is a perfect addition to a run-heavy scheme and will lead the way for Mack and Taylor on up the middle runs in 2020. Nix was a Pro Bowler for the Steelers in 2018, and his ability to spring the guy with the rock behind him into a big play is highlighted in this clip from 2019 when James Conner wiggles free on a devastating block by Nix.
The split in this backfield could lead to some frustration for fantasy managers who roster either Mack or Taylor in 2020. The Colts are likely to pound the rock early and often in coach Reich’s system, but don’t look for them to let Mack ride the pine over the more talented Taylor at first. There’s no reason not to get use out of a back that is versatile, knows the system, is getting paid, and is likely moving on at the end of the year.
My bigger worry is with Hines, who will have to fight for scraps; if he is used in the slot like the team has used him in the past, Hines will have to deal with 2nd-year player Parris Campbell who under all indications (and a preview of the “virtual playbook” by Evan Silva this winter) will get first crack at slot duties if healthy. Expect a split in the beginning of the season between Mack and Taylor, with the far more talented back (Taylor) taking more snaps as the season progresses. Also, keep in mind that Mack has lost 2 games once and 4 games twice in his career to soft tissue injuries. If this happens again in 2020, that would pave the way for Taylor to shine. Taylor is also underrated as a pass catcher as his college team Wisconsin does not often pass to running backs, but he showed good hands catching the ball away from his body and in stride with his 26 catches in 2019; he showed pass-catching acumen at his pro day as well. After watching Taylor’s pro day, Coach Reich noted that he showcased receiving skills that were very underrated. This will in turn hurt Hines’ chances to get any significant offensive snaps unless Campbell goes down to injury again this year. For redraft purposes, this backfield scares me. For dynasty purposes, I fully expect Taylor to be in the top 7 RBs selected in next year’s startup drafts. With Mack gone, 2021 and beyond will be very satisfying for those rostering Taylor on their fantasy squads.
Wide Receiver
2019 was a crap shoot for the Colts wide receivers, with a myriad of late-round picks and UDFAs desperately trying to fill in for starter T.Y. Hilton, who missed 6 games to injury. 2019 rookie draft selection Parris Campbell from Ohio State projected to contribute early and often, but missed most of the season. In a 2020 NFL draft loaded with talent at the position, the Colts drafted Michael Pittman Jr. from the “football factory” USC. Pittman, at 6’4″ and 225 pounds, profiles as an alpha outside wide receiver and projects to start opposite Hilton at the start of the season, with speedster Campbell in the slot. Hilton has already started camp on the PUP list with a “mild” hamstring injury that he suffered at home while training. This could be horrible news for the Colts, as these types of injuries tend to linger. UPDATE: T.Y. Is fine and is impressing at camp, not only with his deep play ability, but at finding the soft spots in coverage. (8/17/2020)
According to our @TheUndroppables PT doc @TheRealAdam_H, it’s very concerning, and at his age with his former hamstring issues, he states Hilton has a 50-60% chance of re-injuring his hamstring this season. This could pave the way for Campbell, Pittman, and a player we will discuss later, but also reinforce the run-first philosophy of Reich and Co.
I would fade Hilton in redraft and sell him in dynasty. Campbell is worth a late-round flyer in redraft and a cheap add in dynasty. Pittman is highly recommended in dynasty formats and should be on your waiver radar mid to late this season if he acclimates to the offense early. For Pittman, it’s also noteworthy that Rivers’ top targeted players in every season (save for one when Antonio Gates was hurt and when Danny Woodhead led the team in targets) are players 6’4″ and taller (Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, Vincent Jackson, Tyrell Williams). Hilton is a generous 6’0″ flat and Campbell 6’2″. Pittman’s downfield ability is highlighted in the clip below.
Tight End
I would be remiss not to talk about a position that has been hyper-targeted by Rivers. With the departure of Eric Ebron, the Colts looked to shore up their blocking by signing Trey Burton, formerly of the Bears. They also have a situational player who is still progressing and learning in former basketball star Mo Alie-Cox. That leaves Jack Doyle to run most of the routes at the position, who was also on the last year of his contract in 2019. The team fixed that in December, inking Doyle to a three-year extension worth $21 million, $13.75 million guaranteed.
With the relevance Rivers brought to Gates and Henry, and with the Colts having a similar system to the ‘Bolts (Frank Reich used to be the Chargers Offensive Coordinator), we have to look to Doyle to have a great shot as an upside fantasy play in 2020. Doyle has done it before, posting an impressive 80/604/4 stat line in 2017 on 108 targets. Rivers has targeted the position over 100 times in 90% of his seasons, making Doyle one of my sleepers at tight end in 2020. Doyle gets a boost if T.Y. Hilton would miss any time for his hamstring or anything else.
Offensive Line
The Colts return all 5 starters from 2019, who also all started all 16 games last year, per Colts.com. This unit is the crown jewel of Frank Reich’s offense earning:
- 2nd consecutive All Pro and Pro Bowl honors for 2nd year player Quenton Nelson, with the top run blocking grade for 2 consecutive seasons per ProFootballFocus.com.
- 3rd overall graded unit per PFF while being ranked the 1st in run blocking and 9th overall in pass blocking.
- 4 of 5 starters ranked top 10 at their position per PFF
Nelson’s versatility was highlighted in a clip by @BrandonThornNFL in Week 1 of his rookie season:
There's a reason why I had Q in his own tier for LGs prior to the season. Simply nothing he can't do at a high level. Pass off games, reach block, pull, pin & climb off a double, etc. etc.
All on display week 1 pic.twitter.com/F4btYgfkcm
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) September 10, 2019
Fantasy Summary:
Philip Rivers: A fade in normal 12-team, 16-round redraft leagues. A possibly nice waiver add to stream and cover
bye weeks and/or injuries. Rosterable in superflex or 2QB dynasty formats as a QB3 this year and next year.
Jacoby Brissett: Only rosterable in deep dynasty superflex formats.
Jacob Eason: An upside stash in dynasty superflex formats, could be the Colts 2022 starter. Buy him now.
T.Y. Hilton: Draft with confidence, he has early rapport with Rivers. A dynasty hold in win now mode, a sell after he has a blow up game or two if you are rebuilding.
Parris Campbell: A late redraft upside play. Buy now for cheap in dynasty.
Michael Pittman, Jr.: Not likely relevant in redraft but possibly a late-season waiver add. A complete buy and
stash in dynasty.
Jack Doyle: Excellent late-round redraft TE pick. Undervalued for win-now dynasty teams; a “buy.”
Marlon Mack: Fade in redraft. Possible buy in dynasty at depressed value, risky and 2021 landing spot will
ultimately determine value. Remember, Mack is only 25 years old.
Nyheim Hines: Sleeper potential is overvalued. Fade or sell in all formats.
Jonathan Taylor: Likely not worth where he is being drafted in redraft, but one of the biggest dynasty buys there is.
Thoughts? Happy to discuss and always have my ears on at @PauliesSleepers.
