(Photo: Nick Wass/AP Photo)
Lamar Jackson had one of the best fantasy seasons of any player last year, doing so in a manner different than that we have ever seen. Lamar was electric, rushing for over 1000 yards and passing for over 3000 yards. His unique skillset begs the question: is his incredible season repeatable? Here, I’ll examine the various aspects of Lamar’s season, and will discuss if he will be worth a top pick next year.
Rushing
Lamar Jackson’s most distinctive attribute is his rushing, as his elusiveness and quickness allow him to break large runs and frustrate defenses. Let’s examine his rushing stats last season, and see how this can be interpreted with respect to fantasy.
Lamar Jackson had the most single-season rushing yards as a quarterback in his first full season as a starter, (although he sat out Week 17), with 1206 yards. This shattered Michael Vick’s previous record of 1039 yards set in 2006. This equates to 28.6 percent of his total fantasy points this season and finishes 6th in total rushing yards at ANY POSITION. The next leading quarterback rusher was Kyler Murray at 544 rushing yards, giving Lamar a 66.2 fantasy point advantage over any other quarterback just based on rushing yardage alone!
When factoring in his 7 rushing touchdowns which is second in the league at the quarterback position, he gains a massive advantage. If isolating his rushing stats against running backs, he would rank as the running back 15 from Week 1 to Week 16 in standard leagues (DNP Week 17). This includes receiving yardage and receiving touchdowns from the other backs, which is obviously lacking for Lamar due to his position. His efficiency was outstanding, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt and 80.4 yards per game. This rushing is sustainable barring injury, as the creativity of the offense and the use of designed runs provide a stable rushing attempt floor, as seen by Lamar’s 23rd most rushing attempts by any player this season. His total rushing fantasy points (including rushing touchdowns), would be 162.6 points.
Passing
The knock on Lamar entering the 2019 season was his passing. In 2018, Lamar sported a 58.2% completion percentage and a measly 171 passing yards per game in his games started. This rose to a 66.1 percent completion percentage and 208 passing yards per game. Although the yardage may seem low considering his MVP season, it is largely due to the team’s successes this year and not needing Lamar to lead the league in pass attempts. Baltimore ranked 29th in the league in total pass attempts, averaging less than 30 per game. Lamar’s deep ball pass rate was middle of the pack, with 60 passes totaling over 20 air yards this season, 4 per game. This makes the defense respect his deep ball to targets such as Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, and opens up shorter targets or designed runs that build a stable floor and improved ceiling for Lamar.
One of the most common knocks on his season in terms of projecting fantasy success in the future is his passing touchdown rate, at 9%. This is a massive increase from his 3.5% TD rate in 2018 and is a target for regression next season. This led the league by 1.3%, and to put this into perspective the 13th quarterback in passing touchdown rate was Aaron Rodgers, at 4.6%. Historically, top quarterbacks have averaged around a 5.4% touchdown rate, and regression to a number similar to this would be projected for Lamar next season. On the other hand, Mark Ingram’s 15 touchdowns are also due for regression, and some of these could transfer to Lamar next season. Overall, I project regression in total touchdowns, however, he will still be elite in this area. His total passing fantasy points would be 259.08 points. This alone would place him as the QB 12 through Week 16.
Looking Forward
Lamar Jackson will be drafted, and deservedly so, as the first quarterback off the board next year in most fantasy drafts. His unique skillset gives him the highest floor of any quarterback, tied with a monstrous ceiling that only a couple of other quarterbacks could dream to reach. This begs the question, how high SHOULD he go in drafts next year (assuming 1 QB)? Lamar Jackson’s total fantasy points above the next best quarterback was the second biggest such margin this year in half-PPR leagues, scoring approximately 90 more points than Deshaun Watson (through Week 16). Christian McCaffrey was the only player with a larger total fantasy points lead above the next best at his position, with a nearly 120 point margin.
In retrospect, Lamar Jackson’s season should have placed him as a first round pick last year, however looking forward due to touchdown regression and offensive total regression, I value Lamar as a late second round pick (from preliminary research). In comparison, I had Mahomes as a late fourth round pick last year, so this demonstrates my confidence that Lamar can continue his dominance, albeit in a slightly reduced fashion. For dynasty, as long as Lamar can stay healthy, he will be dominant for the next 7-8 years while his athleticism and elite rushing abilities persist.
