Ah, Miami. The Magic City of the Sunshine State. In any normal turn of the decade, the impending NFL season would offer hope and prosperity for second-year Head Coach Brian Flores and projected franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans, the country is more focused on COVID-19 taking its talents to South Beach than how soon Tua gets the start.
In an uncertain season, it’s more difficult to project success for the new faces in Miami, but with some continuity from 2019 present and a highly concentrated offense, there’s certainly upside to consider.
Offense: An Overview
Building off the expectations Flores and co. beat last season, the Dolphins sought out the retired Chan Gailey to be their new Offensive Coordinator for 2020, and Gailey responded, “You son of a bitch, I’m in.” Gailey’s experience brings some promise to Miami for real football purposes, but no one in the fantasy community is talking about how Chan Gailey can be a spark plug for the Dolphins’ offense; if anything, they’ve only talked about how he won’t completely sink them.
Aside from coaching, the Dolphins made multiple roster upgrades through free agency, trades, and the draft. They signed former Bears and Eagles running back Jordan Howard to a two-year deal. They drafted the quarterback prospect they were always seemingly targeting, Tua Tagovailoa, at #5 overall in the draft, and bolstered their line by grabbing tackle Austin Jackson at #18 overall. While the rest of their draft picks were invested in defense, the Dolphins made a move to add depth and big-play ability to their running back room, trading a fifth-round draft pick to the San Francisco 49ers for Matt Breida.
Things look a lot different for Miami than they did 12 months ago, but how does this bode for fantasy purposes?
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick + Tua Tagovailoa
In Weeks 5-15, when the Dolphins passing game found its groove and Ryan Fitzpatrick was throwing a minimum 33 attempts per game, the bearded dynamo’s 16-game pace was 628 attempts, 4,500 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The additions of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida to the running back room should help the Dolphins be less pass-heavy in 2020, but everyone knows the FitzMagic brand of upside is ever present. Before Joe Burrow’s breakout and Tua’s hip injury, the Dolphins’ #5 pick was the consensus #1 pick in the draft. There’s massive upside expected from the incoming rookie as well.
The interesting piece to follow is when the change at starting quarterback is made during the season (if at all), and how Tua taking over the offense will impact the offense one way or the other. This could end up like a 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers situation, where Fitzpatrick and Tua combine for a QB7 fantasy performance on the season. The problem is you’re only likely to roster both players in best ball or deep dynasty formats. In redraft, in-season research and playing the waiver wire is the way to go.
Running Back
Jordan Howard
Unfortunately for Jordan Howard, the new first and second down running back option for the Dolphins is one of the least exciting aspects of their 2020 offense. While he did rush for over 1,000 yards in back to back seasons upon entering the NFL, his game logs from last year with the vaunted Eagles offensive line show 0 performances of 100+ yards rushing.
Howard is a lock for 10-15 carries per game in Miami, with a chance as their goal line back to fall into the end zone every week. I only see Howard as a viable asset to your redraft quad when running a Zero RB draft strategy.
Matt Breida
Howard might be the coal-powered engine for the Dolphins’ run game early in the 2020 season, but Matt Breida has the talent to be the electric generator that makes Howard obsolete. We’ve seen Breida take over games with both limited and heavy workloads. Based on his current claim to fastest player in the NFL, the talent is clearly there for him to earn opportunity both on the ground and through the air.
Breida has had some injury history in the past and has been part of a crowded backfield for the first chapter of his career in San Francisco; he’s never seen more than 155 carries or 40 targets in a season. If Breida can remain healthy, he should see a significant uptick in opportunity. This makes him a value in the 8th round of PPR drafts (as of this writing.)
If you need further evidence of Breida’s talent, check out the nasty cuts he put on the Bengals defense below:
The Dolphins got one hell of a player from the #49ers in Matt Breida. Hope he shines in Miami 🙏🏼❤️💛
🎥: @thecheckdown pic.twitter.com/xKLMnvmxVW
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) April 27, 2020
Note: I haven’t mentioned either of Kalen Ballage or Patrick Laird because both players (along with Dolphins GM Chris Grier) proved to us that neither of them are relevant for fantasy purposes as of this writing.
Wide Receiver
With news of both Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opting out for the 2020 season, the Dolphins’ pass-catching options become extremely limited. On the plus-side, this means the volume of opportunity available for the marquee pieces of this offense will be maxed out, resulting in a greater chance for each player to reach their ceiling.
DeVante Parker
Parker was phenomenal in the second half of 2019. From Weeks 10-17 when Preston Williams was no longer on the field, Parker was the WR2 in PPR scoring. He finished 2019 (his first season of 16 games played) with a stat line of 72 receptions, 1,202 yards, and 9 touchdowns. This was the first season oh his career where Parker broke thresholds of 60 receptions, 750 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Said another way, his jump in production was HUGE.
DeVante Parker went off in this game pic.twitter.com/kHk8PVr6rE
— Dolphin Nation (@Dolphin_Nation) July 15, 2020
Parker’s ADP has been suppressed to the late-6th/early-7th round because of the conditions of his breakout: the Williams injury opened the door for more opportunity, plus it happened in the fifth year of his career. What are the chances he’ll maintain such efficiency? For me, I’m not banking on it being sustainable. But there’s no question Parker’s got talent, and he’s a fine pick at his current ADP to be a high-upside WR3 on your roster.
Preston Williams
While the Dolphins organization is “cautiously optimistic” for Williams to be game-ready by Week 1, our medical expert Adam Hutchison points out that there is risk of re-injury the sooner athletes return to full speed after their 9-month recovery from an ACL tear. The Dolphins are rebuilding for the future and won’t rush Williams if he’s not ready. I’d expect him to miss some games early on in the season, or run a higher risk of missing more games later on. The upside for Williams at his ADP is massive in both redraft and dynasty, but know it will take a modicum of patience for this prospect to blossom.
Isaiah Ford
Ford must be mentioned here because the current Dolphins depth chart has him as the #3 WR on the team, so it’s worth keeping an eye on him. That said, the 2017 seventh-round pick has only played in eight games over the first two seasons on his career, so Gailey might not trust Ford with a meaningful enough workload for fantasy purposes.
Tight End
The Dolphins trading a 7th round pick for former Bears tight end Adam Shaheen is the least interesting move I may have seen all offseason. This section is dedicated to one man and one man only…
Mike Gesicki
Maybe it’s just the Twitter circles I run in, but the Tyler Higbee fatigue has opened the door for plenty of spirited debate on the Dolphins’ breakout tight end candidate. Gesicki has an amazing athletic profile (below), and there’s reason to believe that, based on his number of routes run and routes run in the slot, he will see a ton of volume in 2020. Albert Wilson’s opt-out bolsters the volume argument further.
That said, I’d be ignorant if I failed to acknowledge the lack of efficiency Gesicki has displayed in his career thus far. One of our lead rankers, @DynoGameTheory, has noted on multiple occasions how Gesicki’s production will be limited based on his historical efficiency. Furthermore, I have a hard time ignoring the research Drew Osinchuk has done on tight end value in dynasty and why Mike Gesicki is a sell in this format.
Gesicki will likely get 100 targets this year. And if past performance is any indication, that’ll be good for the following line:
110 targets – 66 rec – 650 yards – 4TD
Unless he suddenly starts playing better, that’s what he has been thus far.
60% catch rate – 6.4YPT – 4%TD https://t.co/rpq55pq6vu
— Jax Falcone (@DynoGameTheory) August 6, 2020
I still have optimism for Gesicki to improve his efficiency in the third year of his NFL career, but if I’m drafting Gesicki in redraft, I’m likely grabbing a second tight end to improve my chances of hitting on breakout value at the position.
Questions? Comments? Concerns? Hit me up @AndrewMackens on Twitter, and be sure to follow @TheUndroppables for more Fantasy Football content.
