While the Saints didn’t have massive offseason changes, their additions through free agency and the draft still have significant fantasy implications for 2020 and beyond. Most importantly, Drew Brees agreed to a two-year, $50M deal, confirming that he will be back again this year. Despite Sean Payton’s constant praise of Taysom Hill, the Saints signed Jameis Winston to a cheap one-year, $1.1M contract to back up Brees. In order to boost their WR corps, the Saints signed Emmanuel Sanders to a two-year, $16M deal to complement Michael Thomas. In the draft, New Orleans bolstered their offensive line with their first round addition of Cesar Ruiz, and later acquired Jared Cook’s successor in the third round with Adam Trautman. With these additions, let’s project the Saints offense in 2020 and going forward in this New Orleans Saints Offseason Breakdown.
Offense: An Overview
The Saints’ offensive philosophy shouldn’t change much this year. Their head coach is still Sean Payton, their quarterback is still Drew Brees, and their key weapons Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are still there. Last year, New Orleans was middle of the pack in terms of pass attempts and rush attempts, so volume should be sufficient to support fantasy options at both WR, TE, and RB. The Saints average 81.5 all purpose yards more per game at home than away, which is the second biggest home-road yardage split in the league, only behind the Dallas Cowboys. Much of this difference comes in the passing game, as the offense last year averaged 71.6 less passing yards per game when away. This means that Brees and auxiliary pass-catchers (not Michael Thomas) can be downgraded for fantasy if the Saints are not at home.
Quarterback
Drew Brees
Drew Brees was resigned this offseason to a two-year deal, and stands to pick up right where he left off. He has gained Emmanuel Sanders as an upgrade to the #2 WR position, however he has lost a deep threat in Ted Ginn Jr. (whose production had begun to deteriorate due to age). Overall, this change should be positive for Brees in a substantial way, and he should be valued as a low end QB1 in redraft leagues, having averaged over 24 points per game in four of the last five years in 6-point passing TD scoring. His home road splits are very severe, so drafting another QB in the late rounds to pair with Brees could be a strong strategy. He opens the year with the Raiders, Packers, Lions, and Chargers, and thus can be confidently started in weeks one and three (especially since the Lions lost Darius Slay). The Packers are not a frightening matchup, and Brees can definitely be started there, especially given that the matchup is at home. Despite the Chargers matchup being in the Superdome, their secondary and pass rush is one of the strongest in the league, so streaming the position in Week 4 could be a better option.
Jameis Winston
Jameis was signed to a one-year deal this offseason that serves as his audition for the starting job in New Orleans after Brees retires, or elsewhere as a free agent in 2021. He has had massive fantasy seasons in the past given his gunslinger style, however his turnovers and off-the-field issues have affected his appeal to GMs and front offices. Jameis is a definite hold or even buy in dynasty superflex/2QB leagues, but he is off the radar for redraft leagues.
Taysom Hill
Taysom Hill’s fantasy stock took a hit with the signing of Jameis Winston. Although many believed that Hill would never be the full-time starter for the Saints, there was always a small chance that this could happen. Although Jameis could leave to a different team, nevertheless Hill is at most a long shot for standalone QB value. Some sites are giving him dual-eligibility as a TE, however this still doesn’t make him relevant for redraft leagues. Taysom is a speculative stash in dynasty superflex/2QB leagues though.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara is largely considered to be a disappointment last season… despite finishing as the RB9 in PPR leagues! Keep in mind Kamara missed two games in 2019 and was sub-100% health-wise for much of the season. Additionally, positive TD regression is a possibility, as he only scored 6 total touchdowns, with 4 of those coming in the final two weeks of the season. He is a top-tier RB1 in PPR leagues due to his high receiving volume and effectiveness around the goal-line, assuming that he is healthy.
Latavius Murray
Latavius Murray should split early-down work with Kamara and thus has bye-week fill in potential, especially in non-PPR scoring leagues. His effectiveness around the goal-line should help with his fantasy relevance as well. Additionally, he is one of the top handcuffs in fantasy, proven by his RB1 performances when Kamara was injured in weeks 7 and 8, posting 32 and 36.7 PPR points respectively in those weeks.
Ty Montgomery
Ty Montgomery was recently signed to a one-year contract with the Saints. His value is higher in leagues that reward receptions, however he is completely off the radar for redraft and for all but the deepest of dynasty leagues, as he is likely the #3 RB in the offense.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas was the WR1 last year in fantasy football… by 98.5 PPR points! Thomas would have been the QB2 or RB2 in scoring, with 374.6 PPR points. Michael Thomas is among the upper echelon of NFL receivers in real life, and that, combined with impeccable chemistry with Brees, leads to Michael Thomas being the WR1 for fantasy leagues in 2020, and a top dynasty asset going forward.
Emmanuel Sanders
Emmanuel Sanders was signed to a two-year contract with the Saints after impressing with the 49ers in his return from a torn achilles. Sanders should step into the #2 WR role for Brees, a valuable role that could return WR3 value in fantasy. Sanders should be treated as a solid WR4 for redraft leagues, however he is significantly downgraded in dynasty due to his age.
Tre’Quan Smith
Tre’Quan Smith has underperformed in his two years in the NFL, despite being given every opportunity to develop into the #2 WR for the Saints. At this point, Smith is an afterthought in redraft leagues and is a dynasty stash given his age and potential opportunity.
Ted Ginn Jr.
Ted Ginn Jr. was signed by the Chicago Bears to a one-year deal worth around $1.2M this offseason. He will be the #3 WR in a sub-par offense, and thus is off the radar for redraft and most dynasty leagues.
Tight End
Jared Cook
Jared Cook impressed last season, finishing as the TE7 in only 14 games played. Cook is still the unquestioned #1 TE in this offense, however he will face some added competition for targets from Emmanuel Sanders. Cook should still be treated as a lower-end TE1 for redraft leagues, with a downgrade in dynasty leagues given his age (33) and contract length remaining (one year).
Adam Trautman
Adam Trautman was drafted by the Saints in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. While his value for this year is negligible due to Jared Cook being ahead of him on the depth chart, he stands to be the heir to the #1 TE position in New Orleans next year when Cook’s contract expires. He is one of my favorite late-round rookie draft targets, especially in TE premium leagues. Although he is not important for redraft leagues, he is a very intriguing dynasty stash (especially if Jameis, a QB that historically likes to target the TE position, takes over for Brees in the upcoming years). He is my rookie TE1 by far, especially since this year’s TE class was fairly weak.
Final Thoughts
The Saints should be a team to target for fantasy production, with stars such as Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara leading the way. Brees finally has a quality #2 WR which should help the offense move more smoothly. Although the changes for New Orleans weren’t extensive, additions like Emmanuel Sanders, Jameis Winston, and Adam Trautman will have both short term and long term fantasy impacts.
