Jax Falcone, aka @DynoGameTheory, breaks down each team in his AFC schedule preview, giving you the best Over/Under bets to make on team win totals for 2020.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans: 10-6
Indianapolis Colts: 9-7
Houston Texans: 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10
The Tennessee Titans have a great team and a relatively soft schedule. After their Week 7 bye, the Titans get – at Bengals, Bears, Colts, at Ravens, at Colts, Browns, at Jaguars, Lions. Obviously that Ravens game is a tough one, but every other game is very winnable for them in that stretch. I have the Bengals, Bears, Lions, and Jags all in the bottom 10 teams in the league. They should be able to go 5-3 or even 6-2 during this stretch. The Titans open up the season at Denver and at home against the Jags. If they can win those first two games, it will really put them in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. The last game of the season is on the road against the Houston Texans, and that game could be a virtual playoff game. If the Titans can take care of business against the soft parts of their schedule, it may be meaningless.
The Bet: Over/Under 8.5 – OVER
The Colts come into the season with a very underrated defense, and if Rivers can play a little less YOLO-ball and a bit more game-control, the Colts have a shot to win 11 or 12 games this year. We will know right away with the Colts as their early schedule is the soft part of their schedule. In the first 8 weeks of the season, the Colts get at Jags, Vikings, Jets, at Bears, at Browns, Bengals, Bye, and at Lions. The second half is much tougher, so the Colts will need to be 5-2 after that Lions game in Week 8 to have a shot at the division. After that Lions game, the Colts get the Ravens, Packers, and Titans (twice). In addition, they will have a Week 16 game on December 27th in the Pittsburgh cold. The Colts need to be the hare and jump out early in 2020, or it will be difficult for them to make the playoffs despite their promising outlook.
The Bet: Over/Under 8.5 – OVER
I like the Houston Texans team, but their schedule is almost unfair. If they get to 8-8, that’s an accomplishment. Check this out: They start at Chiefs, Ravens, at Steelers, Vikings, Jags, at Titans, Packers. They could easily be 2-5 to start. They will likely be favored in only that Jags game. Yikes. The second half softens, obviously because it couldn’t get tougher. But still, two games vs The Colts, at the Browns, and vs the Patriots, as well as that Week 17 game vs the Titans. Good luck Texans!
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – OVER/Stay Away
Jacksonville comes into the season hoping to improve on their six wins in 2019. I’m not sure the ceiling is too much higher than 7 or 8 wins. The defense is bad, and there are still holes on the offense while coaching is not a strength. But with Minshew all things are possible, and the sophomore QB will have to play like a god in order for them to be a .500 team. He will be good, but I’m not sure he’s ready to carry a franchise just yet. Their schedule isn’t overly difficult as they get the following non-division games: Dolphins, at Bengals, Lions, at Chargers, at Packers, Steelers, Browns, at Vikings, at Ravens, Bears. They can win 3 or 4 of those games, and if they can go 2-4 or even 3-3 in division, they should end up with 6 or 7 wins. It’s hard to make a case for much better than that.
The Bet: Over/Under 4.5 – Stay Away/OVER
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 13-3
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6
Cleveland Browns: 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals: 4-12
The Baltimore Ravens enter 2020 with the highest of hopes. This team would probably win 10 games this year even if Pittsburgh could pick their schedule. They are gonna be good. And even with a Lamar Jackson injury, there’s enough talent on the roster to be competent. But with Lamar, the Ravens are elite. This Baltimore team could easily push for 14 or 15 wins, but projecting them at 13 wins sounds more realistic. Outside of their division games, (which should be difficult as the Browns and Steelers look like very good teams and the Bengals have clearly improved) they have some tough matchups. Here are the notable games: Week 3 vs Chiefs, Week 6 at Eagles, Week 10 at Patriots, Week 11 vs Titans, and Week 13 vs Cowboys. They finish very light with Weeks 14-17 being Browns, Jags, Giants, Bengals. I’d be surprised to see less than 11 or 12 wins from the Ravens.
The Bet: Over/Under 11 – OVER
Pittsburgh is another story entirely. In 2019, Mike Tomlin received Coach of the Year consideration for guiding Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges to an amazing 8-8 record. The defense returns in 2020 and should be one of the best units in the league. But it all hinges on Big Ben, his health, and whatever ability he has left in the tank. The Steelers did nothing to secure insurance behind their fragile 38 year-old signal-caller, and I fear that could be their demise. This was where I thought Jameis would have been perfect. In any event, they will face a challenge in 2020 to make the playoffs. They face the Giants, Broncos, and Texans in Weeks 1-3, with 2 of the 3 at home. Big Ben and co. better get at least two of those, because the stretch after that isn’t kind: at Titans, vs Eagles, vs Browns, and at Ravens before their bye. The Steelers get the Cowboys and the Ravens again after the bye, but other than that, the schedule eases some and they should be able to finish strong, but that’s assuming Big Ben is still healthy and able to lead his team in the cold weather.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – OVER
For Cleveland, 2019 was a nightmare in every way. Nothing worked. Well, except for Nick Chubb, because he’s awesome. The run game and the play-action pass game should improve with the addition of free agent Jack Conklin and rookie Jedrick Wills. Both players project to start at the tackle spots from day one and improve a unit that really couldn’t have been much worse than it was in 2019. Give Baker a little time to throw and some juice to the run game, and the Browns could be the post-hype sleepers of 2020. If they can take care of business against the average and below-average teams on the schedule, then the games against the Ravens (2), Steelers (2), Eagles, Cowboys, and Titans shouldn’t be their demise. I think this team will be at or near .500 all season long and a few key games will be the difference.
The Bet: Over/Under 8 – Stay Away
The Bengals are playing with house money. They’ve got nothing to lose and zero expectations. They could be frisky though. The problem will likely be the defense, which was bad last year and they didn’t do enough to make much difference in 2020. I really wanted to give the Bengals more than 4 wins, but let’s be real: how many of these games will they win? Chargers, at Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, at Colts, Browns, Titans, at Steelers, Cowboys, Steelers, at Texans, Ravens. Seriously? That’s 12 games I ‘expect’ them to lose. Now, I’m sure they will find a way to win a couple of these somehow, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win all the other games too. 4 or 5 wins seems like the right number.
The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – UNDER
AFC East
New England Patriots: 10-6
Buffalo Bills: 8-8
Miami Dolphins: 5-11
New York Jets: 4-12
How about this? I’ll put dirt on the New England Patriots when they’re dead, and not a moment before. I’ll admit, there is definitely a smidge of homerism in this one, but I’ve seen this movie before. The Patriots just don’t die. The Pats play some huge games this year: Week 2 at Seahawks, Week 4 at Chiefs, Week 7 vs 49ers, and Week 10 vs Ravens. I actually expect a 1-3 or 0-4 record in those games. But the rest of their schedule seems pretty favorable, and with the Dolphins and Jets still scuffling, they should be able to get to 10 wins. Cam gives the Pats a higher ceiling in 2020 and a confidence throughout the locker room.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away
I’m sure many will look at this Bills win total and scoff. But before you do, take a peek at Weeks 5 through 16: at Titans; vs Chiefs; at Jets; vs Patriots; vs Seahawks; at Cardinals; vs Chargers; at 49ers; vs Steelers; at Broncos; at Patriots. Damn!! Take away that Jets game and none of that seems fun at all. There are a bunch of top-15 defenses (or better) during that stretch, and Josh Allen will have to be better than he was last season in order to navigate that schedule with wins. I say they fall a little short and end up at 8-8. A better team than their record shows, but it is what it is. They just miss the playoffs.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – UNDER
The Miami Dolphins are in such great hands with Brian Flores. This team over-achieved to 5 wins in 2019. In 2020 they will be very much the same. The rebuild is not complete. They still have a lot of holes to fill. This team could also have a pretty rough start as their schedule starts tough and never really relents. They get the Jets twice, and the Bengals and Jaguars, but they will be decided underdogs in almost every other game they play. It will be interesting to see how they treat Tua as he recovers from injury. I would almost like to see him have a redshirt season, but I also think it would be wise for him to get his feet wet in 2020. I think the Week 10 game against the Jets is when I would target a Tua appearance.
The Bet: Over/Under 6 – UNDER
Speaking of the Jets, they will enter the 2020 season with a much-improved offensive line that still projects to be one of the worst units in the league. Let’s just say it was real bad in 2019. The defense lost it’s best player, and it wasn’t a great unit to begin with. The skill positions are average at best. All this points to the Jets being a bottom feeder again in 2020. Everyone knows I really like Sam Darnold, but with no weapons, a bad offensive line, and the hurdle of Adam Gase coaching, I really don’t have too much hope for this team. When you look at their schedule, it’s really hard to find a winnable game at any point along the way, other than the Miami games. Ironically, Miami is looking at those games as winnable as well. Something has to give. I’m sure the Jets will surprise a few teams, but their fan base will be clamoring for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields come April, and it will be interesting to see what Joe Douglas does. Gase? Darnold? Draft? LeVeon Bell? Who knows.
The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – UNDER
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 14-2
Los Angeles Chargers: 7-9
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-10
Denver Broncos: 6-10
The Chiefs and Ravens feel like the two clear best teams in the NFL. And Mahomes’ ceiling and versatility combined with the Chiefs’ ability to play catch-up is the great equalizer in this parity-filled league. Mahomes’ singular greatness is the most potent weapon that the NFL has ever seen. When you give him the best receiving tight end in the league and the fastest wide receiver corps in the league, it almost feels unfair. Losing Damien Williams would normally be a pretty big loss, but notably the Chiefs added first-round running back and receiving weapon Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The defense just needs to be a middle of the road unit, and this team can threaten for 14 to 16 wins. Their schedule appears to be pretty thin as well. In Week 3 and Week 4 they play at Ravens and vs Patriots, and later in the season they play at Saints in Week 15 (I will be glued to the TV for this one). Other than that, the schedule seems to be pretty favorable.
The Bet: Over/Under 11.5 – OVER
The Chargers head into 2020 as a team that could surprise a few people. They drafted Justin Herbert, but many of us feel like Tyrod Taylor will play for however long the Chargers are in playoff contention. It looks like they will be competitive for most of the season. The Chargers have a Week 10 bye, and in their first 9 games, they have 6 very winnable games: at Bengals, vs Panthers, vs Jets, at Dolphins, vs Jaguars, vs Raiders. If they start hot, Taylor should keep his job. The second half of the season is much more difficult, but the Chargers could get close to 7 or 8 wins pretty quickly. They have offensive weapons and an improved offensive line. Their defense could be a top 10 unit for sure. All that being said, I wouldn’t want money on the under here, so either bet the over or stay away.
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away
The Las Vegas Raiders started hot last year, and finished with a very disappointing 7-9 record (1-5 last 6 games). Their 2020 schedule is a mixed bag. Playing in the AFC West, they get two vs the Chiefs, which will be near certain losses. They get the NFC South, so Saints, Falcons and Buccaneers won’t be easy games. They also get the AFC East, so Pats and Bills are rough, but Dolphins and Jets are welcomed opponents. Their two extra AFC games are tough draws, as they get the Browns and Colts. The Vegas line for the Vegas Raiders is right at 7 wins. I think that’s a good number. I have a hard time seeing them get to 8, so I’m inclined to bet the under if anything, but it’s probably closer to a stay away. Their defense was bad last year, and I don’t see too much that indicates it will improve. They play in a tough division and their schedule isn’t favorable. I’d likely bet the under and be glad with 7 being a push. If they get to 8, good for them, take my money.
The Bet: Over/Under 7 – Stay Away/UNDER
Denver could be the sneaky team in this division, but their win total in Vegas is at 7.5, so I guess the sharps are already aware. Similar schedule to the Raiders, but instead of facing the Browns and Colts, the Broncos will have the Titans and the Steelers. Yikes. The hope for the Broncos is they finished strong in 2019 (4-1 last 5 games) with Drew Lock at the helm. The idea for them as a .500 or better team comes from the hope they have with Drew Lock. I am a bit more pessimistic. If 7 wins is a win for the under, I think I like the Under for the Broncos. They can absolutely get to 8 or 9 wins, but I think 6 or 7 is just more likely for them. The one thing that worries me for the Under is that their last two games are against the Chargers and the Raiders, and if those two teams are out of contention, it could be the Herbert-led Chargers in one of his first games and a dejected Raiders team. No risk it, no biscuit!
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER/Stay Away
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