When I first learned about dynasty leagues, I was intrigued. I loved the idea of keeping players for their entire career and being able to trade draft picks for assets to win now, or conversely moving assets to acquire pieces to build for the future.
The problem I found was rookie drafts. I’d never been a fan of college football, and I already spend enough time playing fantasy football to be watching hours of player tape. However, I’m pretty good with spreadsheets, and so with a lot of thanks to the RotoUnderworld Podcast, I started working on my rookie analysis.
First of all, all the data I’m about to go over is available on PlayerProfiler for free. (I swear they’re not a sponsor, I just like to give credit where it’s due.) I’m also extremely looking forward to the release of the Breakout Finder app, which should introduce us to additional metrics, such as Teammate Score, Dynamic Score, and Level of Competition Score. Until then, we’ll stick with the basics you’ll need for player evaluation.
These break into 3 general categories:
- College Statistics
- Combine Results
- Opportunity
College Statistics
The first and most obvious statistics are going to be based on the player’s college performance. Of course total yards, receptions, touchdowns and all that are incredibly important, but given that not every college game is an even match, certain statistics can be misleading.
QBR
Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) is a statistic that was created by ESPN in 2011 to measure the overall performance of a Quarterback. This metric incorporates passing, rushing, turnovers and even penalties into how much the QB did to help win the game.
Traditionally you look at the best overall QBR year the QB had in college, however, caution should be made based on what year it occurred, and what school the player went to. If the player’s QBR has had a significant drop since their peak year it occurred or played in an easier conference, these are red flags to be aware of. Typically any QBR over 80 is a good sign.
Yards per Reception/Completion/Carry
This is a pretty straight forward statistic. How impressive was this player on each individual play? Were they someone who just compiled a bunch of yards, or were they reliable to make consistently decent-sized plays? Typically this is taken from the player’s best statistical season. However, if this was not their final season in college, those values are often averaged with the data from their last year.
Dominator Rating
The college dominator metric breaks down how much of a team’s offense the player was a key piece of. This statistic is not applied to Quarterbacks since they’re involved in almost every play. It breaks down as follows:
- Running Back: Percentage of a team’s total rushing yards and touchdowns that belong to the back. 40% is considered to be excellent for a back.
- Wide Receiver: Percentage of a team’s receiving yards and touchdowns that belong to the player. 45% is considered to be excellent for a receiver.
- Tight End: Percentage of a team’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns that belong to the player. 30% is considered to be excellent for a tight end.
This metric is great to see how important a player was a team’s offense. This helps avoid the pitfalls of a weak schedule, as it looks at how the player compared to the rest of his own team.
Breakout Age
Of course, an important factor to keep in mind when reviewing Dominator Rating is the player’s age. 4th-year players have an advantage in that they’ve been coached up longer, and can be more athletic than first or second-year players. This is where Breakout Age comes in. If a player can manage to be a dominant player at a young age, there’s a better chance they have the skills and abilities required to make it in the NFL.
- A quarterback’s Breakout Age is when a player posts a QBR of 50 or more in a season. Ideally, you want an age that’s below 20.
- A wide receiver’s Breakout Age is when a receiver posts a 20% Dominator Rating or higher in a season. Anything that’s 19 or below is considered excellent.
- A tight end’s Breakout Age is when a player posts a 15% Dominator Rating or higher in a season. For Tight Ends, anything at 20 or below is considered solid.
Typically Breakout Age is not something that applies to running backs, as it’s not unheard of for a first-year player to get a significant number of carries, or conversely a strong player being stuck in a time-share.
Combine Results
Of course, College Statistics are only one facet of evaluating a player. It’s also important to keep in mind what level of an athlete the player is. This is, of course, why the NFL holds the rookie combine each year. So let’s take a look at some key stats from the Combine and how to use them for your rookie drafts.
SPARQx
SPARQx was created by a company in Portland, Oregon in 2004 as a way to evaluate a player’s overall athleticism. It stands for Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction, and Quickness. Since then it was acquired by Nike in 2009. The score relies on the following data points:
- 20 Meter Sprint/40 Yard Dash (Speed)
- Kneeling Power Ball Toss & Vertical Jump (Power)
- Agility Shuttle (Agility)
- Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test or YIRT (Reaction & Quickness)
While it is mostly used as sales tools for shoes and athletic gear by Nike, it still provides us with a simple, single-number metric of a player’s overall athleticism. The exact formula is not available to the public, but analysts have mostly backward engineered how it works.
Speed Score
Speed Score was first introduced by Bill Barnwell in Pro Football Prospectus. The formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4), factoring a player’s weight into their 40-yard dash time. This essentially gives larger backs more credit when it comes to assessing speed, which is important because larger backs tend to be more durable and harder to tackle, and smaller backs tend to be faster.
Height-Adjusted Speed Score
Much like how the speed score keeps a running backs’s size in mind, Height-Adjusted Speed Scores gives more credit for taller receivers, as height is a key attribute for receivers as compared to running backs. This metric will take the height of the receiver or tight end and divide it by the average height of other players as that position. This is then multiplied to the Speed Score to give more credit to taller receivers or ends.
Agility Score
Agility Score is straight forward, as it’s just the sum of a player’s 3-Cone Drill times and 20-Yard Short Shuttle time. This is important for evading defenders, as well as keeping a strong sense of balance. Agility Score is unique in that it’s the only one where the lower the value is better.
Burst Score
This measures a player’s explosiveness by adding their Vertical Jump Height and Broad Jump Distance. An important metric for wide receivers as strong burst helps them get off the line of scrimmage quicker, and not get redirected by physical Defensive Backs, as well as being able to jump up and receive the ball.
Opportunity
All of the above metrics are helpful in identifying prospects, however, when it’s all said and done, two things are king: Draft Capital and Team Opportunity. Players drafted in the first 3 rounds are more likely to make an impact on their team, and therefore your fantasy team, and always be mindful of what the team drafted them needs.
