Six short months ago, the Tennessee Titans went 2 for 3 in a commendable playoff run, defeating the Patriots dynasty in the Wild Card round and upsetting the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. The game is something I’ll weirdly remember as fan-level revenge for the upset Baltimore pulled on Tennessee during their 2008 13-3 season, (led by Kerry Collins of all people) but more importantly for 2020 it will be known as the game that proved establishing the run, good defense, and a dash of trickery can beat any team. Well, any team other than the Kansas City Chiefs, that is.
Despite coming back to Nashville without hardware, the Titans look to run it back in 2020 with the same throwback gameplan and a near-identical roster. After showing off a seemingly unsustainable rate of efficiency in 2019, what should redraft fantasy managers expect for this season?
Offense: An Overview
The Titans offseason, like most of their offseasons, remained largely uneventful outside of retaining their key playmakers. They agreed to a four-year, $118 million extension with Ryan Tannehill and, as of Wednesday, July 15th, signed Derrick Henry to a reported four-year, $50 million deal, maintaining continuity in the roster for the foreseeable future. To supplement Henry, the Titans selected rookie running back Darrynton Evans out of Appalachian State in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
As for the offensive line, the Titans lost Jack Conklin to the Cleveland Browns for a three-year, $42 million deal. Fortunately, they were able to re-sign tackle Dennis Kelly to a three-year contract, and they reloaded at the position by taking Isaiah Wilson, a tackle out of Georgia, in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Wilson may jump right into starting work given his youth and talent, while Kelly should be more-than-serviceable swing tackle/depth piece for the team.
Lastly, the Titans waived 35 year-old veteran tight end Delanie Walker from the roster in March, leaving potential breakout Jonnu Smith as the #1 tight end on the Titans depth chart. The Titans also opted to not sign wide receiver Tajae Sharpe or running back Dion Lewis back to the team. Between these three former Titans, 98 targets have been vacated from the offense, which can be allocated to other players on the team in projections.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill was the savior the Titans needed last year to escape from Marcus Mariota’s middling-at-best play and get a shot at the playoffs. His efficiency as a passer could not have been better. To put it in perspective, Tannehill’s touchdown percentage on pass attempts (7.7%) and his yards per attempt (9.6) were both higher than Matt Ryan’s 2016 MVP season stats (7.1 TD% and 9.3 YPA, respectively.)
Tannehill’s efficiency is primed for regression, and this is factored into his rankings (QB16) and ADP. As such, I would only consider Tannehill as an option to begin the season in Superflex and 2QB leagues. If he continues to show hyper-efficiency in the early part of the season, I would consider picking him up off the waiver wire for the upside.
Running Back
Derrick Henry
There’s not much to say here other than Henry is a towering, stiff-arming, gridiron Goliath that the Titans have chosen to center their offense around over anyone else. Fantasy Football success comes from a combination of talent and opportunity, and Henry clearly has both. The majority of the public agrees that Derrick Henry is, for lack of better words, “Just That Good.” From polls that I ran on Twitter and had retweeted by MyFantasyLeague to expand the sample size, Henry falls in between the following players:
- Dalvin Cook
- Joe Mixon
- Derrick Henry
- Miles Sanders
- Kenyan Drake
- Austin Ekeler
The public has Henry pegged as the RB7 in 2020 PPR redraft leagues, and despite the receiving upside of Sanders/Drake/Ekeler, you should be comfortable drafting Henry here. I would not value Henry nearly as high in Dynasty, simply because he could be on another team in two years (given his contract structure.)
Click on the tweet below to see the full thread of polls.
PPR RB thread: Derrick Henry OR…
— Andrew Mackens (@AndrewMackens) July 15, 2020
Darrynton Evans
The Titans’ third round draft pick has been brought in to be a complementary piece that has the versatility necessary to lighten a portion of the load for Henry. Evans has 96th percentile speed according to PlayerProfiler.com and chalked up 5 touchdowns on 21 receptions in his final year at Appalachian State, so I see Evans as the replacement to Dion Lewis with upside for even more receiving work. Should anything happen to Derrick Henry injury-wise, Evans would become a must-have on redraft rosters. Also, for what it’s worth, Blake Hampton published a predictive model for rookie running backs on our site, and in that model Evans is projected to outscore the likes of Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Zack Moss over the first three seasons of their respective careers.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown
I’ve written about fading A.J Brown before on our site, and I’ll say it again here: The efficiency in the Titans’ passing game is set to regress, and that could have a material affect on Brown’s own efficiency and production in the offense. Brown should see a full complement of targets going into his second year, but he’ll also draw top corners from opposing defenses. I expect to see a good amount of weekly WR1 performances, but I won’t be surprised if he gets shut down from time to time, or the Titans don’t need to use him heavily certain weeks to win. He’s a true boom-bust prospect in my book.
Corey Davis
Corey Davis truthers (myself included) have held on far too long to the potential of a Top-5 NFL draft pick. After finishing as a Top-30 wide receiver in 2018 and being touted as a bit of a sleeper going into 2019, Davis did nothing to impress in 2019. He finished the year with an underwhelming 43 receptions, 601 yards, and 2 TDs. Specifically because of Tennessee’s tendency to run the ball, I can’t in good conscience recommend drafting Davis in redraft. There are other #3 wide receivers in places like Atlanta that should see better production than Davis this year, simply because the team throws more. If I’m in Dynasty, I would probably hold Davis in case he unlocks his potential late a la DeVante Parker for an 8-game stretch, otherwise I would try to flip him for a future third- or second-round pick where you can take a shot on an overlooked rookie wide receiver.
Adam Humphries
It’s always difficult for wide receivers to transition from one team to another. This transition could not have gone worse for Adam Humphries. After piling up 76 receptions, 816 yards, and 5 touchdowns in his last season in Tampa Bay, Humphries became another cog in the Titans’ run-first offense and only managed 37 receptions for 374 yards and 2 touchdowns. Humphries is a mega-deep stash in dynasty formats (maybe if his situation changes he can be a flex?) and is undraftable in 2020 redraft leagues.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith
Smith flashed in multiple ways last year on limited volume, and it’s those highlights along with stellar metrics that have many a fantasy draftnik identifying Smith as a breakout candidate for 2020. From my time watching the Titans play last year, I’d say Smith is easily the second-best pass catching option on the team.
I mean, just look at him. The man is READY to PLAY:
This immediately reminds me of the Darren Waller Hard Knocks footage from last year. https://t.co/wIOwXjhlVe
— Andrew Mackens (@AndrewMackens) July 9, 2020
Smith’s 12th-round ADP has stabilized over the past couple months, meaning he should remain a solid sleeper target in your 2020 drafts. I would not, however, rely on him as the only tight end on my roster in redraft or dynasty, in case he does not see the target volume we expect to see from a typical TE1.
Our own Vivek Iyer details the potential for Smith’s breakout further in the Twitter thread below:
Jonnu Smith – A Thread.
Who: Starting TE for the Tennessee Titans
What: A low-end TE 1 in 2020
Why: Opportunity, Athleticism.
Continued Below ↓@TheUndroppables— Vivek Iyer (@FantasyandSport) June 30, 2020
Anthony Firkser
Firkser is the backup tight end to Jonnu Smith. At age 25, he has been in the league for two years, but has not seen much opportunity as of yet. The reason I bring him up here is because he caught two touchdowns in three postseason games last year, a sign that he could take some production away from Smith. It’s going to be annoying, but not any more annoying than when a backup on any other NFL team scores instead of the player in your fantasy lineup. Firkser is a name to know if (God forbid) Smith misses time due to injury.
Final Thoughts
I wanted to write this offseason breakdown because I’ve been a Titans fan since 2000. So, feel free to take everything I’ve written here with a grain of salt. However, in an uncertain season, and more importantly an abnormal offseason, I continue to favor continuity when projecting fantasy success.
The Titans are running it back with their key playmakers from down the stretch in 2019: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Jonnu Smith. While this core of continuity is small, I expect these players to be the engines of the Titans offense, leading to a high concentration of fantasy points. Remember: Talent + Opportunity = Success!
