Dynasty fantasy football is much like war. You need to know your opponent, understand how to prepare and create a battle plan, how to construct a balanced roster with a defined vision, and know when to go for the title or (re)build for a future run. A deep and intimate understanding of both strategy and football is required to be consistently successful in a dynasty league. This treatise illustrates the fine art of building a true dynasty and maintain a top position in your leagues for a considerable time.
These are the 10 core tenets that I believe are critical to success in building a dynasty behemoth that will yield results year over year.
- Startup Drafts
- Roster Construction
- Ideal Archetypes
- Ship Chasing
- Iron Bank
- Rookie Pick Values
- Rookie Drafts
- Trading
- Roster Management
- Bayesian Inference
Dynasty Roster Construction based on Redraft Principles
Build a roster by utilizing lifetime values but also remember that things can change that affect these values. Change is the only constant.
Too often dynasty players chase the siren’s song of youth and look too far ahead when in reality you should not build based on considerations beyond 2 or 3 years. Although dynasty fantasy football is long term game, situations can change quickly whether it’s an NFL team adding new players making others irrelevant or in danger of losing opportunity share, your studs suffering a serious injury, or even finding themselves in legal trouble (see Deshaun Watson). There are too many variables involved so do not expect things to remain the same.
Terminator has taught me that dynasty fantasy football is much more similar to redraft than people want to admit. In essence, you want to try to win now (if possible – see Chapter 4). By constructing a roster full of young, promising talent and taking an ageist stance with your dynasty teams, you will be hard-pressed to create a window of realistically competing for a title – ever. Promise doesn’t win championships. Production does. Get as many producers on your team.
Dynasty fantasy football players often get caught up wanting the youngest players and building for the long, slow burn. But too often, I have found that those players lose sight of the actual end goal which is to secure the bag. This is a common mistake made by new dynasty players. In my first dynasty startups, I drafted a bunch of young players with a lot of promise while ignoring the value to be had with proven veterans. The result was that I built teams that were chock full of Twitter darlings but sorely lacking proven players that would help me win in the present. Granted, I was able to overcome the odds and win a title in year 2 in some of those leagues but in hindsight, it was not the right way. Little did I realize at the time that this approach required that all of my young “studs” become elite producers at the same time. And the chances of that happening isn’t very high. Flipping back to the startup draft strategy outlined in Chapter 1, use the hype around young players to your advantage and trade back where you can.
Avoid the Fatal Flaw
A fatal flaw in the strategy of chasing youth is that dynasty players will misjudge older assets. When you’re in ship chasing mode, you can take advantage of this flaw by acquiring proven (but older) veterans by trading away younger players who aren’t truly proven or even 2nd-3rd round future rookie picks. Recency bias is a double-edged sword so wield it to your advantage. If a rookie breaks out and has an amazing first year, look closely at the factors and reasons for his early success. Was it due to his undeniable skill or could it be attributed to a perfect storm that may not be replicated again? It seems like every year we will see rookies explode on the scene only to fade into irrelevance in the next season. Trade away players who potentially exceeded expectations while you can.
On the other hand, be wary of not realizing when it’s time to reload and let go of your aging players. This is a delicate balance that must be mastered. As Matt “The Podfather” Kelley notes in his Dynasty League Dominator Guide, based on a 25% turnover rate of players each year, the odds suggest that about 75% of players will become irrelevant within 3 seasons. The last thing you need on your dynasty team is a bunch of roster cloggers that you merely hold onto because of the fear of missing out. Learn when to let go of players who have either underperformed or have just become dust (see AJ Green).
Kelley also notes that since several of your rostered players will undoubtedly fall off the age cliff at some point, you should dedicate at least 3 roster spots to developmental players to ensure you don’t drop future studs who may break out in their 2nd or 3rd seasons.
