Dynasty fantasy football is much like war. You need to know your opponent, understand how to prepare and create a battle plan, how to construct a balanced roster with a defined vision, and know when to go for the title or (re)build for a future run. A deep and intimate understanding of both strategy and football is required to be consistently successful in a dynasty league. This treatise illustrates the fine art of building a true dynasty and maintain a top position in your leagues for a considerable time.
These are the 10 core tenets I believe are critical to success in building a dynasty behemoth that will yield results year over year.
- Startup Drafts
- Roster Construction
- Ideal Archetypes
- Ship Chasing
- Iron Bank
- Rookie Pick Values
- Rookie Drafts
- Trading
- Roster Management
- Bayesian Inference
Knowing When to Chase the Ship
You need to be able to evaluate your team midseason and make an honest assessment of your chances of actually contending for a title in any given season. If you are not a legitimate top 3 contender in your league, then there is really no point in chasing a title that season unless you are depending on luck to get you there. Winning in fantasy football requires luck but we can put ourselves in a position to succeed. As Oscar Wilde once put it, luck is when preparation meets opportunity.
By understanding when you have a legitimate shot at a title, you can put yourself in a position to win that championship. If you have methodically constructed a strong roster using redraft principles and a win-now mentality (see Chapter 2), then you should have positioned yourself for a deep playoff run. That’s when you trade enticing youthful pieces for well-established, reliable veterans who can put you over the top. Throwing in future rookie draft picks is also an option if you are confident that you can make a real run at the title as a top 3 contender. But also remember that you should be wary of mortgaging your future just to contend. There needs to be a high level of confidence that this is your chance to strike if you are going to trade away future rookie draft picks. There is nothing worse than to go all out only to fall short and not have enough assets to reload for the next season. When the next rookie draft comes around and you have no picks, you will be tempted to start trading away players for picks. This leads to endless frustration, disappointment, and broken teams. Shoot your shot but make sure you have a high probability of success.
Productive Struggle
If you are not truly a contender, you are better off stockpiling what Mike Liu calls the Iron Bank (more on that in Chapter 5) and collecting draft capital. But there is a delicate balance. If you are not a strong contender, it does not mean you should just sell off all of your players and go in a full rebuild. Tearing down your entire roster is risky and many teams that go into a full rebuild mode usually don’t make it back. There is a better way to “rebuild” in a productive manner. You need to have a firm strategy and plan in place with a clear vision of how you are going to rebuild.
If you find yourself in mediocrity or not truly in title contention, then it may be time to start building using the Productive Struggle blueprint created by Ryan McDowell. This blueprint works best if you have stocked your team with young building blocks and future draft capital. You may “tank” for a season by trading off aging veterans for rookie picks and young players but you are essentially building for the future with a specific plan in place. The idea behind the Productive Struggle is to build an evergreen roster that will compete for a title every year, even as your team ages and players come and go. So, if you’re not a top 3 contender, look to move off aging proven veterans for younger assets and draft capital while keeping your young building blocks. You can read more about the concept of Productive Struggle here.
