Dynasty fantasy football is much like war. You need to know your opponent, understand how to prepare and create a battle plan, how to construct a balanced roster with a defined vision, and know when to go for the title or (re)build for a future run. A deep and intimate understanding of both strategy and football is required to be consistently successful in a dynasty league. This treatise illustrates the fine art of building a true dynasty and maintain a top position in your leagues for a considerable time.
These are the 10 core tenets I believe are critical to success in building a dynasty behemoth that will yield results year over year.
- Startup Drafts
- Roster Construction
- Ideal Archetypes
- Ship Chasing
- Iron Bank
- Rookie Pick Values
- Rookie Drafts
- Trading
- Roster Management
- Bayesian Inference
Maximizing the Value of Rookie Picks
Now that you’ve stockpiled your Iron Bank, it’s time to maximize that value you have stored. As @ekballer has stated in one of his articles, “There is a substantial amount of fluctuation of the value of rookie picks throughout the year. This is an effect that one can capitalize on to maximize purchasing power when buying or selling picks.”
Speaking with Erik on this topic, he emphasized that one of the ways to build a successful dynasty team is to accrue value and then flip it into talent – whether through rookies or veterans. I agree with strategy and so do the sharpest dynasty gamers I know. While there is a variety of methods to achieve this, understanding the rookie pick value cycle and knowing how to profit off buying and selling rookie picks is a clear path to turning a profit.
To help visualize this concept, Erik has created a rookie pick cycle graphic (based on the work by @DynastyKyle) which provides a depiction of when rookie draft pick values peak and dip throughout the course of a year. Essentially, you want to avoid trading for rookie picks as rookie fever reaches the highest peaks and alternatively, you will want to trade for rookie picks as their values dip during the season.
Patiently Waiting
There are too many instances where I have seen (and made) the mistake of trading a rookie pick too soon – before the draftboard plays out. A recent example comes from this year where a rookie 1st (1.07) was traded in February (months ahead of the rookie draft). The first problem was that rookie rankings and prospecting are just getting started. No Combine or Pro Day results to develop a solid picture of the incoming rookie class. Free agency was still a month away, which meant that team needs and landing spots were yet to be decided. When a rookie pick is traded before the draft has started, you truly have no idea what reaches will take place and which players may fall. In this particular draft, the 1.07 ended up being Ja’Marr Chase who somehow slipped past ADP as managers drafted Kyle Pitts, Najee Harris, and several QBs ahead of him. If the 1.07 was held longer until it was on the clock, the return from trading that pick would have been substantially higher.
On the flip side, if you held the pick and the draftboard shook out as expected, following ADP, then trading it would still not have resulted in any loss in value. In fact, as seen every year, rookie fever catches like wildfire and fantasy gamers will offer a king’s ransom to “get their guy”. Be patient and trade away rookie picks when the moment is right.
As mentioned previously, if you are trading for rookie picks, try to acquire them during the season or years in advance. This is when these picks are at their lowest value point which will allow you to reap a larger return on investment whether you eventually make or trade the pick.
