Dynasty fantasy football is much like war. You need to know your opponent, understand how to prepare and create a battle plan, how to construct a balanced roster with a defined vision, and know when to go for the title or (re)build for a future run. A deep and intimate understanding of both strategy and football is required to be consistently successful in a dynasty league. This treatise illustrates the fine art of building a true dynasty and maintain a top position in your leagues for a considerable time.
These are the 10 core tenets I believe are critical to success in building a dynasty behemoth that will yield results year over year.
- Startup Drafts
- Roster Construction
- Ideal Archetypes
- Ship Chasing
- Iron Bank
- Rookie Pick Values
- Rookie Drafts
- Trading
- Roster Management
- Bayesian Inference
Reloading through Rookie Drafts
Whether you have won it all, fell slightly short, or finished at the bottom of a league, rookie drafts are an opportunity to reload and come back the following season better than ever. If you pushed all of your chips in to chase a ship, you may not have any rookie picks but these can always be acquired (albeit it may cost you based on the rookie pick value cycle). If you have stockpiled your Iron Bank, then you can control the rookie draft, select the players that you want/need while trading back to acquire more draft capital.
The strategy in rookie drafts is similar to that in startup drafts. In essence, you want to target value/best player available although team need plays a bigger role in rookie drafts. Personally, I prefer to trade back in any draft based on tiers, my team needs, and where the talent drops off. By trading back, you can acquire multiple assets (picks and players) and snowball your value. For example, if you are holding the 1.05 and don’t have a player target or compelling team need, then look to trade back a few spots in exchange for 1st and 2nd round picks (or even more). As noted before, rookie fever hits its peak when picks are on the clock and you’ll be surprised at the hauls you can get when a league mate starts foaming at the mouth for a rookie darling. Every pick has a price, even the 1.01.
For previous season contenders who fell short, it’s time to decide the best path forward. If you are lacking draft capital then you may want to fish for picks (or players) with future years’ picks – but be careful. Kicking the can down the road could allow you to make another run at the ship but another missed chance with a closing championship window could be extremely costly and you could find yourself in a rebuild situation with an empty Iron Bank which is the dynasty death sentence. The chances that a rookie hits in their first year aren’t necessarily high regardless of breakout age, draft capital, and dominator rating. Don’t hastily pursue rookie picks for a team with a championship window but rather consider trading future picks for proven players.
Breakout Age, Draft Capital & Dominator Rating
Studying college prospects’ production and metrics will give you a leg up on the competition when it comes to rookie evaluation which is necessary to successfully navigate dynasty rookie drafts. While there are several metrics to focus on when looking at college prospects, two of the most important are breakout age and dominator rating.
According to Player Profiler, breakout age is the age when a WR achieves a dominator rating of 20% or higher (more on that below). Hit rate is the probability that a player posts a top 24 season at the WR position.
Historical perspective tells us a lot about how likely a WR is to become fantasy-relevant (post a top 24 season) based on their breakout age and draft capital. Players who have a higher breakout age are more likely to finish in the top 24 at least once during their NFL careers (hit rate). Breakout age offers a clear way to separate players in terms of their likelihood of success in the NFL. When factoring in draft capital with breakout age, the hit rate of players who broke out at age 18 and 19 is significantly higher than that of other players in later rounds. For WRs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft, the hit rate for WRs drops off drastically based on their breakout age. For example, rookies with an age 18 breakout age drafted in the 1st round have hit about 70% of the time compared to 25% for those drafted in the 2nd round.
This (older) chart from Peter Howard shows how often WRs have posted a top 24 PPR finish based on their breakout age and draft capital. Please note that the data is not current.
Player Profiler defines dominator rating as a player’s market share (or percentage of the team’s receiving production). Historically, a 35+% dominator has shown that the WR has strong potential to be the WR1 for his team and at the very least a high-level player. A dominator rating of 20-35% indicates a mid-level talent who possesses upside. Anything less than 20% is a red flag. One caveat is that WRs with a dominator rating of under 28% in their final college season have a 1% hit rate in the NFL.
Dominator rating is also relevant and helpful when evaluating running backs. For RBs, dominator rating is the percentage of total offensive production (rushing and receiving). A RB is designated as having a breakout when the player hits a 15% dominator rating. According to @DFBeanCounter, RBs with a breakout age of 18 have posted a top 12 (RB1) season about 55% of the time. In contrast, RBs with breakout ages of 19 or 20 have a hit rate around 30%. An interesting tidbit is that 100% (5 out of 5) RBs with age 18 breakout age and drafted in the 1st round have hit.
Rookie/Devy Resources
To gain an advantage in prospecting rookies, I highly suggest using resources such @DestinationDevy (founded by @RayGQue) and @CampusToCanton (founded by @sharpereview) which are the ultimate resources for devy. Ray is one of the smartest minds when it comes to film analysis and Felix just has a way of breaking down prospects in a way that many can’t. Both are attorneys with incredible analytical minds. They have put in the hours and work so we don’t have to. Both of them are worth a subscription and follow.
Another one of my favorite follows for devy and preparing for my rookie drafts is @DevyEusuf who’s uncanny ability to unlock the hidden gems while providing insights that will make you think twice about popular prospects and blindly following the crowd. Fusue’s track record of hitting on all sorts of prospects is unmatched.
If you’re looking for prospect models to help you, @masterjune70 (aka the FF Devyl) is a researching machine who has done in-depth analysis of prospects for years. Throughout his extensive work, the Devyl has developed a series of benchmarking criteria in a transparent process that breaks down not only the top prospects but also uncovers the sleeper rookies you should be targeting late in rookie drafts. The FF Devyl is also one of the cornerstones in our devy department so make sure to give him a follow.
