Dynasty fantasy football is much like war. You need to know your opponent, understand how to prepare and create a battle plan, how to construct a balanced roster with a defined vision, and know when to go for the title or (re)build for a future run. A deep and intimate understanding of both strategy and football is required to be consistently successful in a dynasty league. This treatise illustrates the fine art of building a true dynasty and maintain a top position in your leagues for a considerable time.
These are the 10 core tenets I believe are critical to success in building a dynasty behemoth that will yield results year over year.
- Startup Drafts
- Roster Construction
- Ideal Archetypes
- Ship Chasing
- Iron Bank
- Rookie Pick Values
- Rookie Drafts
- Trading
- Roster Management
- Bayesian Inference
Mastering the Trade
The Dynasty Commander, @CPatrickNFL, is the one main analysts I look up to when it comes to making dynasty trades. As Curtis says, “[everyday] a good day to make a dynasty trade.” But it’s not just about making a trade, especially one that only helps you. The art of trading is about sending offers that are fair and will help all teams involved in the trade which will increase the chances that they will be accepted.
You need to make sure that the trade will actually help your trade partner. Don’t think selfishly about your own needs only. Do your homework. Assess your team needs and which positions you need to bolster. Then figure out what your team strengths are and where you might have surplus whether it’s positionally or in terms of draft capital. After you have assessed your team’s current state, check out your leaguemates’ roster needs and strengths. By building trade offers that solve your trade partner’s problems and looking to acquire from their surplus or strengths, you will inevitably increase the chances for a successful deal.
In terms of fairness, this is dynasty and we need to consider the long game versus trying to rip off a leaguemate. You might pull one over someone but you’ll quickly be viewed as a sneaky (not savvy) trade partner. You also don’t want to insult someone. As Curtis advises, you can increase the chances that you can close a deal by sending a fair offer, one that makes you feel “uncomfortable if it’s accepted” and “mutually beneficial”. I’ll admit that I have been guilty of sending low ball offers to get the conversation started. The problem is that the conversation usually ends pretty quickly from there.
Mastering the art of trading has a third component – knowing which players to trade for and those to trade away. Trade for players who are expected to turn things around in the short term. When you are looking to trade for players with depressed trade value, target young players who have exceptional talent profiles but have recently underperformed. Bet on the bounce back as history has shown us that situations change faster than talent. Great players usually don’t disappear or fall off the production cliff (barring age or serious career-threatening injuries). Other players to target in trades are those who are coming off season-ending injuries or a poor season but are still in their primes (see Saquon Barkley and Dak Prescott). I would also look at situations in free agency. Are there players who will be changing teams and seeing better opportunities like Stefon Diggs when he left Minnesota for Buffalo and became the undisputed alpha? Look to add proven veterans who you expect to have improved situations.
On the flip side, you also need to know when to trade way a player. Holding onto a player passing his prime and reaching the age apex (see A.J. Green and Todd Gurley) can be disastrous and result in you having roster cloggers. Building a successful dynasty team is a delicate balance of young and old. Consider trading away elite players who are reaching the age apex while they still hold top value for a combination of both young assets with upside and veterans with track records. You may be breaking up a dollar for 4 quarters but if you play your cards right some of those pieces should be appreciating in value in the next season or two. I have learned from Matt Kelley to sell aging superstars before their decline for a king’s ransom. You want to trade away players before their values take a dramatic hit, but keep in mind that selling high does not always mean you need to trade away all of your aging players. Remember that an age-balanced roster is the key to success in dynasty. In addition, trade away those who have exceeded expectations but may not be able to sustain in the long term. There will be young players who have put up a single strong season (in their first few years) but do not boast high draft capital. Check to see if these players are volume dependent and trade them away while you can for more stable, proven assets. If they are unproven players with less than 2 years of solid production and lack high draft capital, I’d strongly consider moving them as well as the odds of them producing consistently for the next several years are not high (see Jax’s anatomy series).
