Dynasty fantasy football is much like war. You need to know your opponent, understand how to prepare and create a battle plan, how to construct a balanced roster with a defined vision, and know when to go for the title or (re)build for a future run. A deep and intimate understanding of both strategy and football is required to be consistently successful in a dynasty league. This treatise illustrates the fine art of building a true dynasty and maintain a top position in your leagues for a considerable time.
These are the 10 core tenets I believe are critical to success in building a dynasty behemoth that will yield results year over year.
- Startup Drafts
- Roster Construction
- Ideal Archetypes
- Ship Chasing
- Iron Bank
- Rookie Pick Values
- Rookie Drafts
- Trading
- Roster Management
- Bayesian Inference
One of the biggest advantages that an experienced dynasty player has over his/her competition is the understanding of the nuances of constructing a roster that is strong from top to bottom. Fantasy football is a lot like chess in that your players should be viewed as having specific roles on your team – high ceiling and elite upside, high floor, consistency, durability. This means you need to know the type of players to target and those to avoid when turning your roster over from season to season.
As mentioned previously, you want to build a balanced team with young players boasting elite upside alongside proven performers who may be aging but still have a few years left in the tank. Several of the tenets above (ideal archetypes, trading, rookie drafts) are key in this process but having the ability to evaluate players and discern the best values is critical. In terms of positional players, it is important to understand not only the ideal archetypes but also the characteristics of a solid player to make an evaluation of the best value players.
Anchor & Konami QBs
An elite anchor QB is usually a big advantage in Superflex leagues. It has been argued that you can win without elite QBs and that is probably true, although I’m not a proponent of that. In my opinion, you want at least one elite QB in a good offense lead by an intelligent playcaller. There’s not many of them. This is why I am generally not a fan of late round QB strategy in Superflex.
Add on top the fact that you will want to find at least one Konami QB to build around and the selection becomes even smaller. Therein lies the distinct advantage in Superflex. Mike Liu dropped science about Konami QBs and their value in fantasy football. As Mike noted, 1 rushing yard = 2.5 passing yards and a rushing TD = 1.5 passing TDs. This is an immense difference in value, especially when compounding with volume. A team built around a QB who can and will run provides a solid floor at the position while boosting the position’s ceiling. Look at the top QBs in fantasy football and you will notice they have one thing in common – the Konami Code.
On the downside, we must consider whether Konami QBs have a higher injury risk than what Scott Barrett calls “statue QBs”. The short answer is ‘maybe’. When the QB becomes a ball carrier, he is inevitably exposed to a higher rate of hits. In the professional opinion of DPT’s in our community, increasing the exposure to contact puts the player at a higher risk of injury. From this, I gather that although we should target Konami QBs, you will want depth at the position (especially in Superflex). Make sure to roster more than one serviceable backup QB to protect your roster from injury risk. Personally, I prefer to have at least startable QBs on my roster in Superflex dynasty leagues.
This article explains more about the injury risk of Konami QBs.
High Ceiling WRs
To the extent possible, target WRs who are tied to elite QBs who have at least 2-5 years left in their primes. Why? Consistent QB play is usually critical to a WR’s success and elevates a WR’s ceiling. Even if the QB is nearing the end of his respective prime (see Tom Brady), getting a WR tethered to that signal-caller will reap dividends at least in the short term. You should also look to roster WRs are in pass-happy offenses that play at a high pace, allowing for more plays called and more opportunities for targets.
Young, stud receivers are not the only WRs you want to consider for your dynasty teams. In fact, aging WRs generally deliver the best value as they can provide multiple years of production at a (significant) discount. And if/when you are deciding between 2 aging WRs, select the smaller player as they will likely have a play style that will sustain as they get older.
Finally, you want to make sure to have a couple of target hogs on your dynasty rosters. The elite WRs all have several attributes in common and one of the most important is volume. The fact is that WRs can’t score points without targets. Never forget that volume is king.
Elite Bellcow & Workhorse RBs
Tom Kislingbury has provided the criteria for a bellcow RB (not to be confused with a workhorse). A bellow RB:
- Plays 75% of team snaps
- Gets 75% of total RB carries
- Gets 75% of total RB targets
This ultimately means that there are very few elite bellcows in the NFL, especially where timeshares are common. Where possible (and practicable), look to secure those elite bellcows for your rosters such as Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Saquon Barkley.
In terms of elite bellcows and high floor RBs, as Graham Barfield put it, targets are worth 3x more fantasy points than carries. An RB who is projected for 165 carries + 80 targets has much more value fantasy-wise than an RB who projected for 250 carries + 30 targets. This tells us that we need to target pass-catching RBs who get a healthy mix of carries and targets as much as possible.
As true bellcows are a rarity, an alternative is to target workhorse RBs who will see the majority of their team’s carries in a 2-down role which provides a decent floor and predictability as to their usage. A workhorse RB does not see the targets and receiving opportunity of a true 3-down back. But there will always be workhorses (Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb) that can produce just as much as a bellcow (if not more), although I will always prefer a bellcow due to the elite ceiling they provide based on targets and receptions. If you are looking at workhorses, make sure they have volume on their side. This will provide a nice solid floor and dependability. A workhorse is preferred over a satellite RB who is dependent on negative game scripts and seeing a high volume of targets which is not common among RBs. Avoid satellite/scat backs unless they have potential at a starting role in the event of injury to the #1 back on the team (see Nyheim Hines). In general, satellite/scat backs do not possess a safe floor.
If you are in a rebuild or Productive Struggle situation, elite bellcows won’t do you any good. You are likely better off trading them away for a treasure trove of assets and stockpiling the Iron Bank. Rookie drafts are a great time to stock up on highly graded rookies with high draft capital. You can also trade away your stockpiled rookie picks for a premium bellcow when you are ready to contend for a title.
Injury Risk Players
You want to fill out your roster with durable players as the best ability is availability. Players with checkered injury histories should be avoided even though it has been said that ‘injury prone’ is a myth. There will always be freak injuries so those shouldn’t be factored here, but pay attention to a player’s health and whether they have a history of knee issues. You want to avoid the Todd Gurleys and Sony Michels. This is not to say you shouldn’t buy the dip and target a young, solid player coming off an injury. Just pay attention to the situation.
In summary, build a team core with an anchor QB and target hog WRs in a productive, stable offense. Then you put your team over the top to make a championship run by adding elite premium bellcow (or workhorse) RBs when you are ready to chase the ship. And of course, if you see red flags around a player’s health and durability, do your best to avoid rostering them.
