The Future of QB in New England?
One of the most interesting offseason storylines heading into 2021 is what’s going to happen in New England. Admittedly, my fandom may slightly cloud my opinion as to how interested outsiders are in what happens inside the Evil Empire, but I believe everyone has to be at least a little bit curious how Bill Belichick responds to a 7-9 season.
The needs of the team are long, vital to success, and not always the easiest positions to nail down. If New England wants to retool to compete with Buffalo and the Dolphins, (never mind the larger AFC playoff field) the Patriots will need to fill holes at Wide Receiver, Tight End, Offensive and Defensive line, and that moderately important Quarterback spot.
There is some good news in looking to tackle these challenges. The Patriots are going into the 2021 offseason projected to have over $60 million in available cap space, and that number could even increase several more million if a few players decide to hang up their cleats. Historically, Belichick isn’t known for just backing up the Brink’s truck for players, but it seems as though there will be a concerted effort to not have a repeat season of what we just saw.
The 2021 Free Agent class is headlined by some big-name and high-talent players, with several Quarterbacks (at least in media narrative) available by trade as well. Finally, Belichick will be working with his earliest draft pick in years.
What makes the Patriots offseason so difficult to nail down, and specifically trying to mock draft what could happen in late-April to early-May, is the numerous different ways their off-season could go. To me, there is one position that completely dictates how the draft goes, especially that First Round pick at 15: Quarterback. Below are five scenarios that could dictate the next few years of the franchise.
Scenario 1: The Pipe Dream
John. Matthew. Stafford. As the kids say, that’s it, that’s the tweet. In all seriousness, I think by and large Patriots fans would have this as the best possible outcome at the Quarterback position in 2021 and beyond. Stafford has shown time and time again he is a warrior on the field, battling through more injuries than he probably should. All the while, Stafford has shown his impressive passing ability, which should easily land him in the top 10 in all-time passing yards by the time he retires in a few years.
It’s hard to say just how much gas he has left in the tank. But, even if Stafford is only a two-year guy before he goes, he still would be the top option at QB to lead the current iteration of the Patriots. They have the money to make a splash like this, and it would immediately vault the Patriots back into the contender realm.
Belichick would still have around $30-35 million to spend after Stafford, so in this scenario I would love to see Belichick attack the Wide Receiver Free Agent pool. The two names that jump out the most to me are Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay. I want to be a little realistic at least, so what would be better than rescuing the top two Lions players from Detroit and bringing them up to Foxboro where their talent and hard work can finally be rewarded!? That’s right, we will be partying at the Golladay Inn in Foxboro! Stafford and Golladay leading the offseason free agent signings, still having the 15th pick in the first round (depending on Stafford cost), and a bit more money to play with… phew… time to light a cigarette.
Scenario 2: Cam 2.0
By the end of the season, I became a big fan of Cam as a leader and a teammate. There were numerous quotes throughout the season from Belichick, McDaniels, and his teammates about the work he put in and the positive culture he brought to the team. I wanted to be a big fan. His personality and work ethic are the traits fanbases long for in their starting Quarterback.
So, why with all of that said is this not my favorite scenario? Watching him all season, his passing ability just wasn’t present enough in the modern NFL for me to feel as though he is the future. I’ll be the first to admit the players surrounding him were not exactly a murderer’s row of all-time greats, and surely that played a role, but from his mechanics to not pulling the trigger when he had a pass to hit, I’m not sold on him leading a strong passing attack moving forward.
That said, it’s no secret how much Belichick loves Cam. I could see a future in which Belichick still believes in Cam and believes the surrounding weapons and talent were the issue, and that Cam can still be the guy. In this scenario I think Belichick once again goes against his history and splurges on a big-name free agent Wide Receiver, and either uses the 15th overall pick or another free agent signing to bring in a second big-time weapon.
Our very own @FF_Terminator wrote about the impressive crop of free agent Wide Receivers, and the more I look at it, the more I want Belichick to pull the trigger on getting two, regardless of who is under center. Beginning the 2021 Training Camp with both a first tier and second tier Wide Receiver signing would immediately provide a massive boost to this team.
Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, or JuJu as a frontline addition, bolstered by a Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Will Fuller, or even into the Tight End realm of Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, would be a massive talent infusion. Now those names also fall under the pipe dream scenario, but with Cam at Quarterback these are the type of big moves they would need to make to put the offense in the best spot. If they can sign Cam to a deal in the $15 million a year range, (a low hit for a starting QB in today’s NFL) bringing in elite talent is possible.
Scenario 3: Bama North
Under this game plan, Belichick attacks the impressive free agent list for ideally two Wide Receivers and a second-tier Tight End (Gerald Everett) to bolster a talent-depleted offensive core. What’s difficult about this scenario is the Quarterback available at #15 in the NFL Draft is an unknown. Do the Patriots move up to secure Trey Lance? Are Mac Jones or Kyle Trask good enough mid-tier prospects? The draft landscape is very much a question mark at this point in time, with risers and fallers still on their way with months to go until the draft.
On top of this, though Belichick really hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down or wanting to ride off into the sunset, he will be 69 next season and waiting for a Rookie Quarterback to develop may not really be within his career window. Starting 2021 with only a rookie QB drafted in the Spring feels like an unlikely scenario. I will say I feel most drawn to the prospects of Mac Jones being the Patriots’ target if they were to go this route. Besides our very own Kyle scouting him, @RayGQue has said some very positive things about Jones (start at 1:50), and the Saban-Belichick connection is an obvious one. If he can be surrounded with some plus talent, the learning curve for Jones may be slightly easier to master.
*If you happen to not follow Ray, as soon as you finish reading this article do yourself and your timeline a favor by making him your newest follow; your college player knowledge will improve greatly*
Scenario 4: The Miami Blueprint
In this scenario, it would play out as a short-term rental that would be there to mentor and keep the QB seat warm until a rookie comes in to take over in 2021 or 2022. The names that would stick out to me that could serve in a role like this (e.g. Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota) would be headlined by the bearded man straight down 95-South in Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick showed he is more than capable to be a starting Quarterback in the league, and though he disagreed with the way the starting job was taken from him, by all accounts he has been a great aid for the development of Tua Tagovailoa. Going into the 2021 season with a QB room of Fitz, Mac Jones, and Stidham is something I think can provide immediate starting level QB play, as well as a roadmap for the Rookie to take over within a two-year window. I also enjoy the potential storyline of Fitzpatrick becoming a starting Quarterback for every team in the AFC East during his career.
Scenario 5: The Homecoming
This is the most intriguing scenario to me, but it’s also the most reliant on another team dealing with Belichick. This would move past the UFA types of Fitzpatrick, Dalton, and Mariota for me and look to the next step up of Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, and possible dark horse candidates in Derek Carr or Jameis Winston.
As it’s been said numerous times already, trading for Carson Wentz and his contract isn’t all that difficult to take on. Considering the cap space for New England, this would easily be something they could manage and not knee-cap the rest of their team. I know many people are very split on the outlook for Wentz’s career, but he has shown his flashes enough to make me believe if he were to find a capable coaching staff for him, he could more consistently reach those heights once again. But, with Doug Pederson recently being fired, it seems as though Wentz’s status in Philadelphia is back up in the air.
The second player here is our very own Jimmy Garoppolo. Talk about a career arc if that happened. Acquiring Jimmy G would come one of two ways, through trade or if John Lynch decides to move on and just cuts him with an extremely team-friendly dead cap hit. Trying to speculate exactly which happens is obviously a fool’s errand, but there have been grumblings about San Francisco moving on from Jimmy for over a year now, so it certainly feels within the realm of possibilities. Either of these Quarterback signings would leave room for New England to focus on adding offensive weapons through free agency and the pick at #15. Jimmy G is still my leading candidate to take on the starting role in New England in 2021.
Conclusion
No matter which scenario unfolds, the New England Patriots will get impact players back from their COVID opt-outs, they will have a chip on their shoulder as the coach and team are not used to losing, and they have approximately $60 million to play with in cap room.
Bill Belichick is not really known for the splashy and over-the-top free agent signings, but we also haven’t had a season like this in 20 years. He will have the desire and the money to get back to their winning ways, so nothing is out of the realm of possibilities. All we can do now is sit back and wait.
