The Founder of The Undroppables Nicholas You, aka @101Chalk, drops in to bring you some of his top targets against ADP in order to “unlock the chalk” for the 2020 NFL season.
Unlock the Chalk
Getting an edge over your opponents in fantasy football means you have to take calculated risks and stay ahead of the curve. Being late to the party means at best you’re in second place. In the eternal words of Ricky Bobby, “If you’re not first, you’re last.”
To the unlock the chalk, I looked at the top 50 players on my rankings to see which ones I was at least 10 overall spots higher than the ECR and at least 5 spots higher in ADP (about half of a round).
Below are three players who I am significantly higher on than the Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings. By staying ahead of ECR, you’ll be able to snag these players at ADP (or slightly earlier) and watch them return significant value.
A.J. Brown
vs. ECR +16 | vs. ADP +6
A.J. Brown is still the alpha and Corey Davis is still a bust. Nothing has changed in terms of the pass catchers in Tennessee, and another year with Tannehill should mean improved efficiency and production for Brown despite the Titans’ run-heavy tendencies. There’s been chatter of a DeVante Parker-esque fifth-year breakout for Davis, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Maybe Davis does make a leap, but Brown will still command the majority of the targets in Tennessee.
David Johnson
vs. ECR +14 | vs. ADP +5
Coming off a couple of disappointing years, David Johnson seems primed for another workhorse role in a Deshaun Watson led offense (that lacks potent weapons aside from Will Fuller). Lest not we forget that Johnson was recently a top-tier RB1 with dual threat abilities. The Arizona offensive line did him no favors for Johnson last season, and a string of unfortunate injuries hurt his value further.
From offseason reports, Johnson has approached his preparation with a chip on his shoulder. And although we can only take those reports with a grain of salt, I wouldn’t wait until the end of the 5th round to see if I can snag him. I wouldn’t mind selecting him in the fourth round of a Superflex draft with third round consideration in a 1QB setting.
V E R S A T I L I T Y pic.twitter.com/dCFBK7nnZe
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) August 25, 2020
Stefon Diggs
vs. ECR +12 | vs. ADP +12
One of the best pure route runners and Reception Perception’s #1 WR continues to be disrespected every year. Diggs has had the misfortune of being tied to a run-heavy offense that limited his upside, to then being traded to a young team with a QB who has accuracy questions.
Selective bias is real, and we can point to all the negatives such as Allen’s accuracy concerns, but there are also several positives. Another knock on Diggs previously in his Minnesota days was that Adam Thielen was arguably the team’s #1 WR and thus commanded the priority reads from Cousins. Now in Buffalo, there’s no question who the alpha is, and that means Diggs will command a significant share of the targets with little competition behind him. Currently available in the mid- to late-seventh round in Superflex drafts, I’d take him a full round ahead ADP, in the sixth round over WRs like Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker, Courtland Sutton, and D.K. Metcalf.
And to round out the media portion of practice here’s Stefon Diggs vs Tre White 👀@news4buffalo pic.twitter.com/kOKt4bNh5r
— Heather Prusak (@haprusak) September 1, 2020
For more of Chalk’s and the rest of the team’s rankings, visit our redraft rankings page. You can also explore our other rankings for Dynasty Superflex and Offensive Lines via our main rankings page.
