Massive. Organizational. Failure.
That’s the only way I can describe the series of events that led to the trading of the player that was once thought to be the franchise quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles; Carson Wentz. Just three years ago, Wentz was enjoying an MVP season before having it cut short with a torn ACL. That season still ended with a parade down Broad Street though, and a lot of hope throughout the city for the future and the “new norm” Eagles fans were promised by then Head Coach Doug Pederson.
Alas, those statements were not meant to be. After a disappointing season that saw Wentz become one of the worst QBs in the NFL, both him and Pederson are gone. The Eagles traded Wentz a year after signing him to an extremely lucrative deal, and before the deal even began, leaving them with the largest dead cap hit in NFL history. Many will argue separately the reasoning for this move, what led to Wentz’s struggles, and whether or not Wentz can ever be what we saw in 2017. For now though, let’s focus on how this affects not only the Eagles, but the Indianapolis Colts as well.
Philadelphia Eagles Impact
Starting with the Eagles, there are two players that instantly gain value from this trade, both being a bit obvious. The first is Jalen Hurts, who is now expected to be the starting QB for the 2021 season. In the three games Hurts started and finished at the end of the 2020 season (Weeks 14-16), he averaged 25.89 PPG, leading to significant excitement within the fantasy community for his future. There is no question that a QB with the running ability of Hurts will be an extremely valuable asset in fantasy next season, with a top 5 finish very much in the range of outcomes. There is obviously risk in acquiring him for the long term, as he does not have the first round capital that typically ties NFL teams to their young QBs for a long period of time, but his 2021 stats will surely be higher than his current value might show.
The second player that should see a large boost from this trade is running back Miles Sanders. In that same stretch of three games, Sanders averaged 17.8 PPG in half-PPR scoring, which was also the best stretch of his injury-riddled season. Sanders is extremely talented, and his ADP in dynasty startups does not currently reflect that.
I’ve typically seen Sanders go in the middle to back of the third round of startups, a year after being a mid-to-early second round pick. There are many examples from around the league that the boost in Sanders’ production provided by Hurts at QB should be expected and replicable. Mark Ingram last year, J.K. Dobbins this year, and even Kenyan Drake this season all show that having a mobile quarterback helps that team’s running game as a whole. The one thing this may limit for Sanders is red zone touchdowns, but given that they are already the most unpredictable stat in football, and Sanders’ ability to break off a 90-yard touchdown run on any carry, he is currently undervalued against what I believe he will be next season with Hurts at QB for the Eagles.
Now, with the likely addition of talent to the WR room for the Eagles this offseason (hopefully), this outlook could change significantly by the time the 2021 season begins. Even if the Eagles added a surefire WR1 like Ja’Marr Chase, the move to Jalen Hurts does not excite me for his pass catching options outside of Sanders. I think the one in the best shape for their fantasy value to increase will most likely be tight end Dallas Goedert, as new head coach Nick Sirianni has a history of utilizing that position, and Goedert’s running mate Zach Ertz is most likely headed out of town as well. I believe that just based on his talent and the type of offense we will likely see from Sirianni, Goedert will be a consistent fantasy producer, especially compared to other tight ends.
Overall for pass catching, I think we’ll see their fantasy outlook in a similar light to receivers for the Baltimore Ravens during the Lamar Jackson era. It’s tough to tell sometimes if Baltimore lacks talent outside of Marquise Brown, or if Jackson is just unable to properly utilize them given the offense and his throwing talent. I expect similar struggles with Jalen Hurts at the helm, whose accuracy and arm strength were a question coming out of college, and looked to be equally concerning in his time starting last season. I was a big fan of Reagor coming into last season, and I do believe that we will see more out of him in his sophomore season than we did last year, but more so in the form of ceiling games. Reagor will most likely remain inconsistent just based on the amount of pass attempts Hurts will likely see in a game compared to the Eagles during the Pederson-Wentz era.
Indianapolis Colts Impact
First and foremost, this was always the ideal landing spot for Wentz. The Colts have a far superior offensive line to what Wentz had in Philly last season. Wentz was 34th last season in pressured completion percentage, according to Player Profiler, at 32%. While he did struggle across the board as a passer last season, with a significantly better offensive line, he should have the trust and time to get in rhythm that he did not have last year. From watching him play last season, even when he was not under pressure, it was clear he didn’t trust his protection, which impacted him on every snap. Add that to the upgrade that running back Jonathan Taylor provides as a pass blocking running back, he graded 17th out of 349 qualifying FBS running backs in 2019 according to RotoViz’s Hayden Winks, Wentz will feel more comfortable in the pocket in 2021 than he ever did in 2020.
But what about outside of Wentz? The Colts offense was not the most consistent for fantasy purposes in 2020, but it really did seem to find its rhythm near the end of the season, with Jonathan Taylor finally breaking out, and TY Hilton returning to form. Looking forward to 2021, the player to focus on is second year Wide Receiver Michael Pittman. After a relatively slow start to the season, the Colts began to see success with him by playing him in the slot. In half PPR scoring format, Pittman scored 44.4 fantasy points from the slot on 311 snaps. Compare that to 31.9 fantasy points on 333 snaps outside, it is clear that Pittman was more efficient in the slot. Seeing as two of the better fantasy seasons of WRs being thrown to by Wentz were Jordan Matthews in 2016, Wentz’s rookie year, and Nelson Agholor in 2017, Pittman is a guy who I would expect to see get more looks and production in his sophomore campaign, especially if the Colts don’t do a lot to upgrade the Tight End position. Throw in the fact that Hilton is a UFA and Zach Pascal is a RFA, there is a good chance that there will be increased available targets to go around in this offense.
The only player that I believe the Wentz move impacts negatively is running back Nyheim Hines. Hines benefited greatly from Phillip Rivers last season, who has long loved dumping the ball off to his talented pass catching running backs. Carson Wentz however, does not share in that love. Regardless of running the 7th most routes among running backs last season, Miles Sanders finished only 32nd in receiving yards and 30th in receptions. Part of this is due to the case of the drops that Sanders dealt with last season, but regardless it is very telling that for an every down back that ran that many routes, he was not much of a factor in the passing game. Now I don’t believe that Wentz means that the Colts running backs will be a complete zero in the passing game, but due to Taylor and Hines splitting reps, I think it would be surprising if Hines had any consistent fantasy relevant role (barring injury) in 2021.
Conclusion
Between this trade and the Stafford-Goff swap, the NFL is seeing the QB position change in ways we’ve never really seen before. Now more than ever, we find ourselves having to guess at what an offense might look like in an upcoming season, and it’s important to remember that while maybe not ideal, logically making assumptions is important and part of the process. This is what leads to advantages in fantasy, and advantages like that are the best way to bring home championships. Hopefully this information help you decide what you think of these teams going into 2021.
Best of luck, Carson.
